Our experts’ ultimate guide to Super Rugby season
WITH the Super Rugby season fast approaching, our experts Iain Payten and Jamie Pandaram run the rule over the conferences, key players and the dark horses.
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WITH the Super Rugby season fast approaching, our experts, Iain Payten and Jamie Pandaram, run the rule over the conferences, key players and the dark horses.
NSW WARATAHS
Major gains: Sekope Kepu, Damien Fitzpatrick, Irae Simone, Cameron Clark, Michael Wells, David McDuling, Mack Mason
Major losses: Kurtley Beale, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Dave Dennis, Benn Robinson, Wycliff Palu, Sam Lousi, Zac Guildford
2016 finish: 10th (second in Australian conference)
Summary: On face value the Tahs should be the dominant Australian side in 2017. They’re in their second year under coach Daryl Gibson, and while they’ve lost a heap of experience they still retain the most Wallaby-laden squad in the country.
The key issues will be how their tight five performs in the big games, and whether a new midfield combination without Beale can be as potent.
ACT BRUMBIES
Major gains: Kyle Godwin, Wharenui Hawera, Saia Fainga’a, Chris Alcock
Major losses: David Pocock, Stephen Moore, Matt Toomua, Joe Tomane, Robbie Coleman, Ita Vaea, Michael Wells
2016 finish: 4th (first in Australian conference)
Summary: The Brumbies have suffered by far the most damaging blow to their roster in the off-season and have been further crippled by the season-ending knee injury to star halfback Tomas Cubelli, which will see them slide out of contention this year.
MELBOURNE REBELS
Major gains: Marika Koroibete, Jackson Garden-Bachop, Ben Volavola, Kentaro Kodama, Pama Fou, Tyrel Lomax, Jake Schatz
Major losses: Mike Harris, Luke Jones, Tamati Ellison, Adam Thomon, Cam Crawford, Scott Fuglistaller, Jamie Hagan
2016 finish: 12th (third in Australian conference)
Summary: While the Rebels have steadily improved under coach Tony McGahan this will be a challenging year given their immense loss of experienced players and strengthening of rival teams’ rosters in the Australian conference. Expect them to go backwards in 2017.
QUEENSLAND REDS
Major gains: George Smith, Quade Cooper, Stephen Moore, Scott Higginbotham, Lachlan Maranta
Major losses: Liam Gill, Greg Holmes, Ben Daley, Ayumu Goromaru, Curtis Browning, Saia Fainga’a, Jake Schatz, JJ Taulagi, Ben Matwijow
2016 finish: 15th (fourth in Australian conference)
Summary: The Reds will be the most interesting Australian side to watch this season, given the sheer volume of talented stars added to their roster. Can Quade Cooper rediscover his 2011 magic, will George Smith continue to defy father time, will Karmichael Hunt emerge as a genuine rugby star, can Leroy Houston and Kane Douglas make claims to be starting Wallabies? They’ll have a decent year.
WESTERN FORCE
Major gains: Tatafu Polota-Nau, Ben Daley, Curtis Rona, Bill Meakes, Robbie Coleman, Chance Peni, Isa Naisarani, Ben Matwijow
Major losses: Kyle Godwin, Steve Mafi, Nathan Charles, Alby Mathewson, Ben Tapuai, Chris Alcock, Junior Rasolea
2016 finish: 16th (last in Australian conference)
Summary: The perennial Aussie wooden spooners have made some impressive signings and can rely on consistency from Wallabies Adam Coleman and Dane Haylett-Petty. But the fact remains that there will be winners and losers and the Force do not have the depth and quality to win more than they lose.
OTHER CONFERENCES
New Zealand
Blues, Chiefs, Crusaders, Highlanders, Hurricanes
Summary: Once again they’ll be the dominant conference, beat overseas rivals more often, and play a better style of rugby. The depth of Kiwi talent is astonishing and in a year where the chance to play against the British & Irish Lions is on offer, big names will have big games. It’s hard to pick which side will fail to make the cut, but expect the Hurricanes and Highlanders to be strong once again while the Blues will emerge as a major force.
Africa One
Bulls, Cheetahs, Stormers, Sunwolves
Summary: The Bulls have lost 18 players from last year’s roster - most to overseas clubs - while the Stormers have picked up some handy recruits including Bjorn Basson and SP Marais from the Bulls. With the Cheetahs and Sunwolves set to struggle, the balance of power in this conference is firmly with the Cape Town franchise and while this conference has the tougher New Zealand conference games in 2017, the Stormers will get that out of the way mid-season and be settled in South Africa for the crucial late round matches.
Africa Two
Jaguars, Lions, Kings, Sharks
Summary: The Lions became everyone’s second-favourite team last year in their historic charge to the grand final and they’ll remain the side to beat in the Africa Two conference. The Jaguares will be stronger than last year but the Kings remain a basket case having virtually overhauled their entire roster for different Currie Cup players. The Sharks have lost too many big names (Marcell Coetzee, Willie Le Roux, JP Pietersen, Jacques Potgieter and coach Gary Gold) to be a realistic threat this year.
THE LOWDOWN
JAMIE PANDARAM
Best signing: Sonny Bill Williams (Blues). He wins everywhere he goes and the underperforming Blues will be a completely transformed team with SBW in the midfield and coach Tana Umaga now aware of what does and doesn’t work at Super Rugby level.
Worst signing: Lachlan Maranta (Reds). The former Brisbane Bronco was a much hyped signing but has little rugby pedigree and I expect Eto Nabuli, Izaiah Perese and Chris Kuridrani to get more game-time on the wings this year.
Breakthrough star: Peter Umaga-Jensen (Hurricanes). The 19-year-old will be a revelation when he finally gets his start. The nephew of former All Blacks captain Tana Umaga, outside back Umaga-Jensen has earned rave reviews for years in Wellington’s junior representative ranks.
Competition dark horse: Queensland. With Quade Cooper back to guide a fast and powerful backline, George Smith back to pester every breakdown, Kane Douglas fit and Stephen Moore to add leadership in the tough moments, the Reds shape as an imposing prospect.
2017 champion: Hurricanes. The defending premiers will take some stopping, having picked up Jordie Barrett, Ben Lam and Sam Lousi while the most notable loss from last year’s roster is Victor Vito. Their draw is favourable and they’ve been to the last two finals with a solid core of young players.
Top 8 prediction:
Hurricanes, Lions, Stormers, Waratahs, Highlanders, Blues, Crusaders, Sharks
IAIN PAYTEN
Best signing: George Smith (Reds). Everywhere the great George Smith plays, he wins awards and competitions. So book him for another freakish season, even at 36. By round 3 he’ll be the best player in the Australian conference.
Worst signing: Dominic Day (Rebels). Quality isn’t an issue - Day has played three Tests for Wales - but value for money might be. The Rebels’ lock recruit arrived in Melbourne after a season in Japan with a shoulder injury and will be out for the first two months. In there, the Rebels play four of five Kiwi teams and NSW.
Breakthrough star: Irae Simone (Waratahs). Everyone - read coaches, players, rivals - have been muttering about the talent of Simone all summer and trial form indicates reality might match the hype. Skilful, good in contact and next to Izzy.
Competition dark horse: The Blues. The Aucklanders have been the black sheep of the Kiwi rugby family by not also being stupidly brilliant for most of the last five years. This year? SBW is on board, along with Rene Ranger, the Ioane brothers, Jerome Kaino and Tana Umaga in the coach’s box. Keep an eye out.
2017 champion: Highlanders. The skills of the Highlanders backline - the Smiths, Sopoaga, Naholo, Fekitoa, Osborne, Li - are sublime. The forward pack are no-nonsense, hardworking grunts who care not for public glory. The perfect mix.
Top 8 prediction:
Highlanders, Stormers, Lions, Waratahs, Crusaders, Hurricanes, Blues, Sharks
JIM TUCKER
Best signing: George Smith (Reds) The proven habits of a winner are just what the Queensland Reds need in their rebuild so forget he’s 35 and just enjoy one of the greats ruling the breakdown and his moments of ball-play.
Worst signing: Southern Kings ... still. Why are they in the comp? Grounds in Perth, Brisbane and Sydney will be ghost towns when the South African stumblers tour for three games in April.
Breakthrough star: Marika Koroibete (Rebels) The exciting signing from the NRL is all muscle and pace. He’s a proven finisher but the big question mark is whether the Rebels have the right general at No.10 to get enough ball to him or Sefa Naivalu on the other wing. Probably not.
Competition darkhorse: Queensland. No team has ever got a 521-game turbo boost of Super Rugby nous, leadership and been-there, done-that confidence by signing Stephen Moore, George Smith, Quade Cooper and Scott Higginbotham. New coach Nick Stiles is building the right chemistry too.
2017 champion: Hurricanes. The title-holders have the benefit of eight home games, they know how to win and Beauden Barrett just keeps getting better and better at No.10. Underrated forwards do not get the credit they deserve and that helps drive them.
Top 8 prediction:
Hurricanes, Jaguares, Bulls, Reds, Chiefs, Crusaders, Lions, Highlanders
Originally published as Our experts’ ultimate guide to Super Rugby season
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