Waratahs are owners of two of Super Rugby’s worst stat lines

THE Melbourne Rebels are flying in first place and for the Waratahs to beat them they have to address competition-worst form in two crucial areas.

Waratahs coach Daryl Gibson is already feeling the pressure.

THE Melbourne Rebels’ resurgence has continued with the Victorian outfit climbing into top spot on the Super Rugby ladder for the first time in club history.

But if the Waratahs have any hope of knocking off the rising Rebels on Sunday at Allianz Stadium, they’ll have to urgently address flaws that have them languishing last in the comp — statistically — in two key areas: advantage line gained and turnovers conceded.

The contrasting fortunes of the Rebels and the Waratahs in 2018 are seen in the figures from their first three games.

Waratahs coach Daryl Gibson is already feeling the pressure.

Wooden-spooners last year, the Rebels — boosted by a dozen Western Force players and their coaching staff — have had their best ever start with three bonus-point wins.

They sit in first place, and though its wise to remember they’re yet to play any New Zealand or African sides, the Rebels will arrive at Allianz Stadium as deserved favourites on form.

The Waratahs are in eighth spot after a win, a draw and a loss but those results can be put down more to willpower and fitness than stellar form from NSW.

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The Waratahs were well-beaten in Buenos Aires and of all the issues for Daryl Gibson to address this week, one jumps off the page: a lack of power carrying the ball.

Figures from FoxSports stats show the Waratahs can’t get past the gainline on more than half of their ball carries — they have a competition-worst average of 48 per cent so far this season.

They’re the only Super Rugby team below 50 per cent.

The Waraths have lacked punch over the advantage line.

To put that figure in context, when the Waratahs won the competition in 2014 and had the likes of Jacques Potgieter, Dave Dennis and Cliffy Palu smashing the ball up, the Tahs got over gain-line 66 per cent of the time.

Getting over the gainline is so critical for a team to attack with momentum. Get past it and defenders are retreating and soon enough out of shape. But get stopped behind the gainline and defensive lines have time to get set and then race up. Rinse and repeat.

Who is this season’s best team in Super Rugby for getting over the gainline? You guessed it — the Melbourne Rebels with 72 per cent, ahead of the Crusaders with 67 per cent.

The Rebels were only stopped behind the gainline by the Brumbies last week with one in every four carries.

Melbourne huge forward pack is stocked with an array of giant, explosive ball carriers either weighing over 120kg or named Amanaki Mafi.

The Waratahs’ forwards are far more on the lighter end of the scale — 118kg No.8 Jed Holloway is their heaviest starter — and that lack of size, leg drive or deception at the collision zone is seeing NSW runners stopped in their tracks more than any team.

That, and an unreliable scrum, has denied the Waratahs’ backs front foot ball.

The Tahs have actually done well to score as many tries as they have (11) but compounding the trouble building momentum and pressure is a foot-shooting habit of giving the ball away easily.

The Waratahs have averaged 19.3 turnovers in every match this season. That, too, is the worst in Super Rugby so far this year.

The Rebels have showed plenty of grunt up front.

Based on the physicality and forward strength match-up alone, the Rebels will prove a significant challenge for the Waratahs on Sunday.

Wessels’ team has the most aggressive defensive line since Cheika’s Waratahs in 2014, with players like Angus Cotterel, Matt Philip and Mafi seeking out dominant contact.

The depth created by the loss of the Force has also given the Rebels’ players an obvious hunger to impress Wessels with every minute they have.

It is undoubtedly a painful thing to watch for Force fans; their former players and coach now flying in Melbourne, in another team’s colours.

Could it have happened in Perth this year if Australia had kept five teams?

Maybe, maybe not. Will Genia’s recruitment and the talent brought by the other half of the marriage — Uelese, Mafi, Timani, Maddocks, Koroibete, Naivalu, English, Debreczeni et cetera — has to be factored in, too.

Originally published as Waratahs are owners of two of Super Rugby’s worst stat lines