Brumbies must chase finals points while Waratahs' finals hopes look gone

THE Brumbies need to throw off the shackles and pocket bonus points to win the competition, while the Waratahs' finals hopes look gone.

Waratahs

THE Brumbies need to throw off the shackles and pocket bonus points to win the competition, and the only impact the Waratahs will have on the finals could be denying Queensland entry.

That's a snapshot of the race to the playoffs for Australian teams after a weekend in which continued improvements in the conference were on display at the lower rungs.

The Waratahs' loss to the Rebels effectively ends their hopes of creeping into the top six. Faced with a tough run home - Crusaders away, Force away (minus Wallabies) and Reds at home - even three bonus-points wins would leave the Tahs (39) shy of a low-ball cutoff mark for the top six, which was 57 in 2011 and 59 last year.

They're also duelling with several teams who have four games to play, so it's night-night nurse for the Tahs.

The Reds (45) remain alive and have a bye left, but they'll need to beat both the Rebels and the Waratahs in the last round, and get a bonus point or two as well.

Their fortunes could ultimately ride on a last-round clash against NSW at ANZ Stadium in July, when Australian teams re-emerge from a specially constructed Lions hiatus and play one round of Super Rugby before the playoffs.It would be a cruel twist if an Australian team was responsible for only one team from the conference for the second straight year, given the standard has risen from 2012.

The Force have added structure to their passion, and the past two months have shown the Rebels are a side on the verge. Out in front, the Brumbies (50) look in control of the conference but if they have any ambition of winning silverware, they will have to attack like crazy in the closing rounds. The ACT men are third and while it's enough to secure a finals berth, third may as well be sixth.

There is still first (and second) among equals when it comes to Super Rugby finalists. To be any hope of winning silverware, you have to be minor premiers or runners-up, as Queensland and the Chiefs were respectively in 2011-12.

In third, you need to win an extra final and, in all probability, then win twice on the road - against the two best teams - to lift the trophy.

If a team makes a run from outside the top two, the burden of travel and home-ground advantages weigh heavily against them. The Crusaders (third) travelled from New Zealand to Cape Town and then back to Brisbane in 2011, to play a rested Reds team at home. They lost.

The Sharks (sixth) travelled from Durban to Brisbane to Cape Town and back to Hamilton to play the Chiefs last year. Like the Crusaders, the sapping 50,000km journey was half the battle and they fell in the final.

Based on the current table, a Brumbies title would require wins over the Crusaders at home, the Bulls in Pretoria and the Chiefs in Hamilton.

The Bulls (also 50) have a game in hand on the Brumbies, although they face a tough local derby run home.