Power can’t ignore the practice match warning signs | Graham Cornes

Even the most optimistic, passionate Power fan must be a little concerned, writes Graham Cornes.

The 2023 AFL season starts this week and the contrast between our two South Australian teams heading into round one could not be more stark.

The Crows are settled, fit, in form and confident. Matthew Nicks’ biggest problems seem to be who to leave out and what to do with Riley Thilthorpe.

At Alberton, the Power is far from settled. The midfield – that engine room of any AFL team – has failed to fire in the pre-season games, the key forwards seem underdone and out of form and the connection from defence to attack is frayed.

Ken Hinkley has been the essence of calm in his press conferences and media interviews, but a calm exterior can disguise a churning inner-self. They are only practice matches but you can’t ignore the warning signs.

The old saying used to be “premierships aren’t won in April”. It’s hard to believe that seasons didn’t start till then, but you get the message. Pre-season form accounts for little except to impart optimism for supporters of teams who need it most.

It’s doubtful that Geelong fans would be overly concerned that the Cats didn’t win both of their pre-season games.

However, when teams are coming off a disappointing seasons as Port Adelaide is, there needs to be signs of improvement. Unfortunately, even the most optimistic, passionate Port fan must be a little concerned.

Charlie Dixon of the Power handballs the ball away during the AFL Practice Match between the Fremantle Dockers and the Port Adelaide Power. Picture: James Worsfold

Will Scott Lycett lead the first ruck? He still looks underdone. Will the midfield fire with Ollie Wines and Zak Butters back in the centre square? They are both recovering from injury and operations. Who gets the third tall defensive role, Tom Clurey or Trent McKenzie? Both have their strengths and their weaknesses.

However, Hinkley’s biggest problems exposed by the practice matches were the transition into the forward 50 and the form of two key forwards, Charlie Dixon and Mitch Georgiades. It was Dixon’s first hitout so give him some leeway, but for one who thrives on leaping for every ball that comes his way, Georgiades looked devoid of confidence. He’s a good kid, with a bright future but the craft of an AFL forward today demands much more than the occasional spectacular mark.

There will much debate around the selection table when his name comes up. If Dixon is used as the second ruckman, there may be a place for him, but like last year he may have to return to the SANFL to build confidence and form. He’s too good for that league but sometimes you have to take a step backwards to go forward.

Much has been made of Port’s disastrous start to last season. It’s true that they were an unlucky team in terms of close losses, compared to Collingwood who escaped with some miraculous, last-gasp wins.

However, the statistics don’t lie. The Power was mediocre in most of the key performance indicators, particularly centre clearances, scoring when the ball went inside its forward 50 and turnovers. Pre-season has given no indication that will improve.

Riley Thilthorpe of the Crows marks the ball against Alex Pearce of the Dockers during the AFL Match Simulation between the Fremantle Dockers and Adelaide Crows at Victor George Kailis Oval on February 24. Picture: Paul Kane

So, with all that compelling evidence that their season is doomed, I’m tipping they will beat heavily fancied premiership contender, Brisbane, in the opening game on Saturday night.

Why? Because sometimes it’s about more than form or talent. Form is but history and talent can be countered by greater physical intensity. Then there is Adelaide Oval and the Port crowd. They are worth a couple of goals at least. They used to call it “The Portress”. It’s time to make it that again.

At West Lakes, Matthew Nicks’s job is made a little easier by the reduced level of expectation, but he is under no illusions. The pre-season has gone to plan and as Nicks told a media gathering on Tuesday: “We have good momentum and belief, but we still have a long, long way to go. If we lose our captain and our best ball user, (Jordan Dawson and Darcy Fogarty) we’re in trouble”, he said.

But it’s been a good summer. The young group is maturing. They are fitter, faster, “body fat down but mass up”, and they are “learning footy while getting fitter.”

There is no doubt Nicks has a motivated group. They play with intensity and are one of the best in the competition at bringing pressure to bear on the opposition. But the team’s ball use, as evidenced by the Champion Data stats last season, was the poorest in the competition and he knows his midfield does not have a Bontempelli, a Cripps or a Petracca.

We have continued to see that intensity in the pre-season. It a good sign but will not be enough when other teams counter it. Nevertheless, after three good performances in the internal trial and two matches in Perth against the Dockers and the Eagles, Nicks can be confident his team will be competitive and he now has the pleasant dilemma of who to leave out.

Ollie Wines of the Power reaches out for the ball during the AFL Practice Match between the Fremantle Dockers and the Port Adelaide Power at Fremantle Oval on March 02 Picture: James Worsfold/AFL Photos/via Getty Images

It seems that small forwards, Lachlan Murphy and Ned McHenry will make way for prize recruit Izak Rankine and an overdue Luke Pedlar. It’s obvious that Nicks has plans for Pedlar who brings bring defensive forward line pressure to complement his booming left foot kick. For a college kid, he’s a roughhead but there is something special about him.

But what does Nicks do with Riley Thilthorpe? The Crows highest ever draft pick has not put his selection beyond doubt. He is not knocking down the coach’s door demanding to be picked. As Nicks said on Tuesday, he is the future of the club — but where does he fit in at the moment?

The football instinct says that he should be a ruck/forward – after all, he did kick five goals on debut. So as well as relieving lead ruckman, Riley O’Brien, he should rest in the forward pocket, but at the moment Thilthorpe has three other ruckmen in front of him. A coach has to reward effort and Elliott Himmelberg who has had a very good summer will probably get the nod.

There is a new buzz word at West Lakes and it is “cohesion”. It relates to a formula that measures games played versus age and the games a player has played alongside a teammate. History tells us a player starts to fully realise his potential when he approaches 60 or 70 games, so why not accelerate Thilthorpe’s experience.

It’s a question Nicks was asked on Tuesday, but he is obviously mindful of the Fischer McAsey experience when the young draftee was played before he was ready. Besides, it’s not a good look to the rest of the group if a coach is seemed to be gifting games to a player based on his draft pick.

Thilthorpe’s time will come, but it may not be this week.

The Crows have a tough opening game away to the GWS Giants, a team chock full of talent with a new coach. I fear, after such a positive summer, it will be back to reality next week.

Originally published as Power can’t ignore the practice match warning signs | Graham Cornes