Paris Olympics 2024 men’s swimming ultimate guide: Can Australia’s male swimmers shock in France?

A disappointing Olympic trials times wise for Australia’s male swimmers has put them on the back foot, but they are not out of the race for medals. An ULTIMATE GUIDE to every men’s swimming event in Paris.

Can a weak Olympic trials lead to shock Paris gold for Australia’s men’s swim team?

That is the great unanswered question for the Dolphins men’s team heading into the Olympic Games with none of the times swum eight weeks ago in Brisbane good enough to lead the world rankings in 2024.

But that doesn’t mean Australia is out of the medal equation in Paris. Far from it.

With 2023 world champions such as Cameron McEvoy, Kyle Chalmers and Sam Short, plus 2022 world champion Elijah Winnington and defending Olympic gold medallist Zac Stubblety-Cook, Australia boast multiple potential medallists – maybe even gold.

But the world of men’s swimming is red hot. France’s Leon Marchand looms as a multi-event superstar, teens Pan Zhanle and David Popovici are pushing sprint freestyle to record levels while the greatest breaststroker in history Adam Peaty is hunting a record fourth Olympic gold medal.

Here is News Corp’s analysis of the Olympic men’s swimming program.

This is Australia’s greatest ever chance to break a drought and win a medal this country’s first medal in the fastest race in the pool, with 30-year-old Cameron McEvoy out to avenge the heartbreak of Rio 2016 Olympics. Eight years ago McEvoy went to Rio as the man to beat in the 100m freestyle but failed to medal in a race won by teenage compatriot Kyle Chalmers. Now, reinvented as a muscular speed demon, McEvoy is favourite to collect gold after rebuilding his body and posting consistently fast times over the past year. Brit Ben Proud is another big threat in a race where even the slightest mistake can mean the difference between gold or not even making a final. Keep an eye on USA defending champion Caeleb Dressel. He won five gold medals in Tokyo, took a mental health break and is now in his comeback season but missed qualifying for the 100m freestyle so he’ll carry even greater motivation into this race.

Young v old. Can 2016 Olympic champion Kyle Chalmers – now 27 – defeat father time and deliver one last hurrah against the new breed of world class sprinters. Tokyo champion Caeleb Dressel failed to qualify via the US trials, which proves just how tight this race will be. Chalmers won last year’s world title, but has not posted the best times in 2024 as China’s Pan Zhanle shattered the world record in February in a time which was almost bettered by teen Romanian freak David Popovici a few weeks ago at the European titles. Those two are the ones to beat. They’re also the only men in the field to break 47 seconds so if they live up to form it could be a two-horse race. It may take a world record to win the gold medal – or this race could be like so many other Olympic sprint finals that are simply man v man not man v clock.

If you had to pick the safest gold medal in the men’s freestyle – this would be it. Romanian David Popovici is simply too fast for the rest of the world over four laps and it is really difficult to see him getting beaten in this race. With a full one second advantage over some of his closest rivals, Popovici would need to choke or get completely thrown off his race plan by someone else in the field to not take this gold medal. Throw a blanket on the rest in the battle for silver and bronze. Matthew Richards won last year’s world title while fellow Brit Thomas Dean won’t get the chance to defend his crown after placing third to Duncan Scott at their trials.

This race on day one has the potential to set the tone for a golden Olympics for Australia – replicating the stunning feats of Ian Thorpe and Grant Hackett at Athens 20 years ago. World champions Sam Short (2023) and Elijah Winnington (2022) are legitimate contenders for the gold medal here, possibly even a 1-2 double, if they can somehow find a way to stop Germany’s Lukas Martens. Ignore the Olympic trials times of the Aussie pair, this is a race where the winner is probably going to have to break the world record to get the gold medal. Short is notorious for trying to break his opponents with early speed and hold on, while Winnington has the back-end speed that could produce a final lap burst for glory. Martens should start favourite, but an Aussie underdog victory is a distinct possibility.

Ignore any times posted this year as a form guide, Australia’s Sam Short is the gold medal favourite after Tunisia’s 2023 world champ Ahmed Hafnaoui pulled out of the Games due to training issues in the US. Short’s time last year of 7:37.76 is world class, but USA’s defending champ Robert Finke (7:38.67) was not far behind him and proved in Tokyo he knows how to peak at an Olympic Games. Winnington has beaten Short twice this year in the 800m at national events, but he’s yet to go sub 7:40 which is what it will take to be on the podium.

Defending champion Robert Finke from the US should be hunting the world record here, after falling just over half a second shy at last year’s world titles in a stunning finish where he was pipped for gold by Ahmed Hafnaoui. Hafnaoui is not in Paris, so Finke’s 14:31.59 stands as the fastest in the field while Ireland’s Daniel Wiffen posted a 14:34.07 at the Doha world titles earlier this year to show he is probably the nearest contender.

Italy’s world record holder Thomas Ceccon should be the man to beat here, but US veteran Ryan Murphy is the proven big race performer in the field. A triple gold medallist at Rio in 2016, Murphy could bookend his illustrious career with another individual crown in Paris after defeating Ceccon to win last year’s world title. China’s Jiayu Xu is one of only three men including Ceccon and Murphy to have gone sub 52s in his career so must be in the mix for gold.

Hungary’s Hubert Kos was the shock world champion last year, his time of 1:54.14 enough to edge out Murphy. We’ve yet to see the best of the Hungarian in 2024, so all eyes will be on whether he can replicate it under the bright lights of an Olympics and if he can truly challenge Murphy once the American star dips back into the 1:53s. Murphy is the fastest man so far this year and the only man in the field to have gone a sub 1:54s. At his best he should be too hard to beat.

Fascinating race this one to see just how much the Chinese doping scandal has weighed on Qin Haiyang. He completed the 100m-200m double at the world titles last year, but was one of the athletes named in the doping scandal that cast a shadow over several of China’s leading athletes. Has it mentally impacted his Paris preparations? He is probably the only man who can stop Britain’s Adam Peaty now that the king of breaststroke is edging back to his best. Peaty owns the 14 fastest times in history.

Ominous signs here for Australia with defending champion Zac Stubblety-Cook admitting at the trials he had adjusted his race plan to try to compete with the early speed of China’s Qin Haiyang after he broke the world record and won by almost a full second at last year’s world titles. Times so far suggest the Aussie’s bold strategy has not paid off. Haiyang is the man to beat while USA’s Matthew Fallon has dropped over a second in the past year and could be the big danger.

This could be the race of the Games. US superstar Caeleb Dressel is the fastest man in history, but is not fully back to his best times since his mental health break. Hungary’s Kristof Milak has no real domestic competition, so we’ve yet to see his best this year after he took a year off in 2023. Canada’s Josh Liendo is knocking on the door of a sub 50s swim and is the fastest man so far in 2024. Could he be the first black men’s swimming gold medallist? Then there is French local hero Maxime Grousset who won last year’s world title in 50.14s and Switzerland’s Noe Ponti who has the second fastest time in the world this year. Australia’s Matthew Temple is an outside chance, he clocked his best time last December so with a full taper in Paris anything is possible. Times swum this season have four men all within two tenths of a second at the top of the time charts, although Dressel (49.45s) and Milak (49.68s) have lifetime bests well ahead if they’re in peak condition.

Anybody that breaks a Michael Phelps world record must be respected, but when you own the five fastest times in history in an event the GOAT dominated his entire career, you know you’re something special. Kristof Milak is special. The Hungarian has redefined the 200m butterfly with his lifetime best, set at the 2022 world titles in his home Budapest, more than two seconds clear of his nearest rival in this field. That rival is the man carrying enormous French hopes – Leon Marchand. The 200m fly was one of three gold medals Marchand won at last year’s world titles and with question marks over Milak’s ability to get back to his peak this event looms as a two horse race for gold.

This will be Leon Marchand’s final individual race of a big program – and if his ultimate Parisian dreams become reality he might just be floating on water by this stage. He won last year’s world title in 1:54.82, a full second clear of Brit Duncan Scott. The big difference this year is the return of China’s defending champion Wang Shun. He posted the fastest time of anyone in this field earlier this year but was also one of several Chinese athletes caught up in the 2021 doping scandal that was exposed just a few months prior to these Games. The fact Wang has been exonerated of three positive doping tests in his career, also in 2016 and 2017 for minute traces of banned substances, will surely make him public enemy No. 1 as the Paris fans encourage their champion to potentially another gold medal.

Ignore the 2024 form, this is the safest gold medal of the Games with French hero Leon Marchand expected to win this race by several body lengths. His world record is insanely quick. He wiped 1.3s off Michael Phelps previous mark at last year’s world titles and his nearest rival in this field, defending champion Chase Kalisz, has a lifetime best three seconds slower that was set seven years ago.

Originally published as Paris Olympics 2024 men’s swimming ultimate guide: Can Australia’s male swimmers shock in France?