Paris Olympics 2024: Gold medal predictions, Australia set to dip afer Tokyo Games
Australia have been tipped to experience a big drop in gold medals, despite another top-10 Olympic finish looming. See the official predictions, and which Aussies are tipped to nab gold.
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Australia remains on course for another top-10 finish at next week’s Paris Olympics, despite being tipped to experience a big drop in gold medals.
Led by the swimmers and superstar paddler Jessica Fox, Australia is forecast to finish in the top seven countries in the world with 12 golds and 42 medals in total.
The number crunchers are also predicting the Aussie team will win medals in 14 different sports, with swimming and rowing expected to generate the most.
The sports tipped for medals are:
Athletics, basketball, Beach Volleyball, BMX freestyle, boxing, canoeing, track cycling, hockey, golf, rowing, rugby sevens, sailing, skateboarding and tennis
But there are plenty of other sports who are not included right now but are on the cusp - including diving with Cassiel Rousseau last week winning the world titles for the 10m platform.
That’s a great return for an overseas Olympics, but down on the team’s massive haul from Tokyo in 2021, where the Aussies bagged a record-equalling 17 golds and 46 medals in total.
The predicted count has been released by global data giant Gracenote Sports to mark one year to go until the Paris Olympics.
Gracenote correctly predicted Australia would place sixth in Tokyo and expects a similar result in the French capital.
“After the disappointing Olympics of 2012 and 2016, Australia will sustain its 2021 performance in a year’s time with over 40 medals for the sixth time in the last eight Olympics,” Gracenote said.
“Achieving this will rely on the success of the swimming team. The 17 medals forecast by Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table is broadly in line with the three best Olympic performances by Australia’s swimmers - 2008 (20 medals), 2021 (20) and 2000 (18).”
Using complicated algorithms to analyse the results and rankings for competitors in each of the 329 medal events that will be conducted, the data company did say the forecast for next year was skewed by the absence of many Russian and Belarusian athletes from lead-up events.
Based on performances since Tokyo, Australia is predicted to collect six golds in the pool, with teenager Mollie O’Callaghan and her Brisbane training partner Elijah Winnington both capturing their first individual Olympic golds.
Ariarne Titmus, Kaylee McKeown, Zac Stubblety-Cook and the women’s 4x100m freestyle relay are all projected to repeat their wins from Tokyo.
Fox, who won gold in the kayak in Tokyo, is expected to be the biggest winner - capturing three golds in Paris.
Javelin thrower Kelsey Lee-Barber, golfer Minjee Lee and skateboarder Kieren Wooley are all also expected to get to the top of the podium.
The US is again expected to finish at the head of the medals table with 43 golds followed by China, a distant second.
The host-nation France will be the biggest improvers, tripling its gold medal tally to 32, while Italy will leapfrog the Aussies into sixth spot.
$20M RELIEF FOR STRUGGLING OLYMPIC ATHLETES
By Julian Linden
Almost a year to the day before the Opening Ceremony for the 2024 Paris Olympics, Australia’s athletes have secured a rare win that could boost their chances of winning even more gold medals in the French capital.
At the same time Australians are marvelling at the extraordinary success of the swim team at the world championships in Japan, a much deeper concern has been brewing under the surface.
Because of massive funding cuts, Australia’s Olympic and Paralympic hopefuls for Paris had already been warned their chances of competing in Paris were under threat because they simply couldn’t afford to attend crucial overseas qualifying events.
Now, the federal government has heard their pleas, coming to the table in the nick of time with an additional $20 million rescue package to help every Aussie athlete who is good enough to get themselves to the greatest show on Earth next year.
“Our Olympic and Paralympic sports have been telling us that getting their athletes to key preparation and qualification events has been a challenge and we’ve listened,” federal sports minister Anika Wells said.
“Through the Australian Sports Commission (ASC), we’re proud to be able to invest further in our athletes that inspire millions of Australians when they represent us on the world stage.
“It is the ultimate honour to represent your country and now more Australians will have more chances to become Olympic medallists.”
The announcement will come as a welcome relief to cash-strapped sporting bodies who were facing the heartbreaking prospect of telling athletes their lifelong sporting dreams were going to be crushed because of the cash crisis.
Already operating on a proverbial shoestring, the expenses have blown out since the 2021 Tokyo Olympics because of the rising rate of inflation and soaring travel costs.
Sporting officials recently went cap in hand to the government, asking for an additional $18.3 million just to cover all the extra costs for all the qualifying events for every sport at the Paris Olympics and Paralympics.
They didn’t get an immediate response but now it’s come, right on cue when Australians are starting to turn their attention to Paris, thanks to a timely reminder from the champion swim team, which won an unprecedented four gold medals on the opening night at the world championships.
Called the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Preparation Fund, the money will be delivered in two streams, with the first, totalling just over $15 million, providing a direct one-off grant payment to 32 eligible sports.
The second stream, worth almost $5 million, will be a competitive grant program where sports can apply for additional funding to help with their preparations for Paris.
“Our athletes make extraordinary sacrifices to be ready physically, mentally and emotionally to proudly represent Australia every four years on the world’s biggest sporting stage, the Olympic and Paralympic Games,” ASC chief executive Kieren Perkins said.
“Sport hasn’t been immune from the rising cost of living pressures we are all facing.”
Paralympic champion Madison De Rozario said the funding boost would help athletes continue their journey to Paris and inspire their local communities.
“There is nothing like representing Australia at a Paralympic Games and to have been able to do it for so many years has been an absolute privilege,” she said.
“However one of the best parts of it all isn’t what happens out on the road or the track it’s the impact that it’s able to have on the community. It’s knowing that everything our Paralympic and Olympic teams are doing on a world stage is playing a part in creating healthier, happier communities full of opportunity both on and off the sporting field.
“Knowing our athletes have so much support to allow us to do it all again in Paris is incredible.”
The sports which will be given boosts under the Paris 2024 Enhancement Grant Program:
Archery Australia, Hockey Australia, Artistic Swimming Australia, Judo Australia, Athletics Australia, Modern Pentathlon Australia, AusCycling, Paddle Australia, Australian Sailing, Paralympics Australia, Australian Taekwondo, Rowing Australia, Australian Weightlifting Federation, Rugby Australia, Badminton Australia, Shooting Australia, Basketball Australia, Skate Australia, Boccia Australia, Sport Climbing Australia, Combat Institute of Australia, Surfing Australia, Diving Australia, Swimming Australia, Equestrian Australia, Table Tennis Australia, Football Australia, Triathlon Australia, Golf Australia, Volleyball Australia, Gymnastics Australia, Water Polo Australia
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