The NRL Run Home: Fixtures, predicted ladder for NRL finals
A big win for Newcastle over the weekend has them tipped to sneak into the top eight at the expense of a Queensland side. PAMELA WHALEY analyses the run home and predicts where your side will finish.
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We’re a month out from the finals and nothing is assured.
The minor premiership is up for grabs, the Bulldogs and Manly are hunting for a top four finish and Cronulla are doing their best to hang on to the privilege.
While at the bottom of the top eight, just four points separate five teams all fighting to play in September.
Off-field dramas and on-field form, it all counts now.
This is where momentum comes into play.
We’ve crunched the numbers and found the teams with a big advantage to finish the season, those who won’t be so lucky and the teams who might just sneak into the finals after a wild ride.
MELBOURNE STORM
Current position: 1st (38 points, 16 wins, 4 losses, 3 byes, +169 points differential)
Whaley’s prediction: 2nd (44pts, 19 wins, 5 losses)
Run home: Panthers (l), Dolphins (w), Cowboys (w), Broncos (w)
Verdict: Two points ahead of the Penrith, the race for the minor premiership comes to a head on Thursday night when they face the premiers at BlueBet Stadium. Whatever the outcome, it will likely determine how they attack the final three weeks of the competition where they can do some damage to Queensland’s finals hopes. A win against Penrith could tempt coach Craig Bellamy to rest some of his stars before the finals after a brutal season which could have a flow on effect.
PENRITH PANTHERS
Current position: 2nd (36 points, 15 wins, 5 losses 3 byes, +164pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 1st (44pts, 19 wins, 5 losses)
Run home: Storm (w), Raiders (w), Rabbitohs (w), Titans (w)
Verdict: In case anyone forgot just how dangerous Penrith can be, they pulled a rabbit out of their hat to beat Parramatta in a stunner on Friday night. Still without James Fisher-Harris, Dylan Edwards and now Scott Sorensen, Penrith don’t look like losing another game for the rest of the year. Again. Considering the massive injury tolls they have dealt with all season they’re unlikely to rest their stars before the finals.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Current position: 3rd (32 points, 13 wins, 7 losses, 3 byes, +219pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 3rd (40pts, 17 wins, 7 losses)
Run home: Eels (w), Titans (w), Raiders (w), Rabbitohs (w)
Verdict: The Roosters desperately needed a bye to freshen up before the play offs after leaking 88 points in three games against Melbourne, Manly and the Dolphins in the weeks before. The defensive lapses were a new problem for the Roosters who have been rock solid until this point in the competition. Dom Young is still in doubt but Nat Butcher is expected back to face Parramatta, which kicks off a favourable final month of the season.
CRONULLA SHARKS
Current position: 4th (32 points, 13 wins, 7 losses, 3 byes, +175pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 4th (38pts, 16 wins, 10 losses)
Run home: Knights (w), Dragons (w), Warriors (w), Sea Eagles (l)
Verdict: A huge win over the Titans has done wonders to Cronulla’s confidence after spluttering through the weeks prior with two wins in six weeks. It’s their first back-to-back win since round 11. The switch up of Blayke Brailey into the halves unlocked their attack as they await Nicho Hynes’ return, which is expected to be before the end of the regular season. The last four games are entirely winnable if they can grasp this new-found form and carry it through to the finals.
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Current position: 5th (30 points, 12 wins, 8 losses, 3 byes, +110pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 6th (36pts, 15 wins, 9 losses)
Run home: Dolphins (w), Warriors (w), Sea Eagles (l), Cowboys (w)
Verdict: The Bulldogs have lost just two games since round 11 and come into the final month of the competition as one of the form teams. A win over the Dragons in one of the most anticipated games of the year gives them three wins in a row before facing the Dolphins in Bundaberg this week. As they close in on their first finals appearance since 2016, their biggest test will be Manly at Accor Stadium in round 26.
MANLY SEA EAGLES
Current position: 6th (29 points, 11 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw, 3 byes, +115pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 5th (37pts, 15 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw)
Run home: Warriors (w), Tigers (w), Bulldogs (w), Sharks (w)Verdict: Along with the Bulldogs, Manly are banging on the door of the top four and they have the draw to do it. But they still need other results to go their way, needing the Bulldogs and the Sharks to slip up over the last month. They showed in a big win over Canberra they’re back in form at just the right time and now don’t leave Sydney until potentially the finals. The round 27 game against Cronulla could determine a top four finish.
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Current position: 7th (28pts, 12 wins, 9 losses, 2 byes, +5pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 7th (32pts, 13 wins, 10 losses)
Run home: Raiders (w), bye, Storm (l), Bulldogs (l)
Verdict: They won three in a row before slumping to a 42-18 loss to Brisbane at home on Old Boys Day. After leaking 30 points the week before, the Cowboys have leaked 72 points in two games raising doubts about their defence at the wrong time. Their finals mettle will be tested again with Canberra this week before a bye, and afterwards they spend the final two weeks of the season on the road. It’s a huge finish to the season for a side that hasn’t yet assured a finals spot.
DOLPHINS
Current position: 8th (26 points, 10 wins, 10 losses, 3 byes, +35pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 10th (28pts, 11 wins, 13 losses)
Run home: Bulldogs (l), Storm (l), Broncos (w), Knights (l)
Verdict: A golden-point win over the Warriors and a positive points differential has landed them back in the top eight for now. But the Knights and Raiders are pushing too, as are the Broncos who remain a mathematical chance. They’ve coughed up crucial wins over the past month which could come back to bite them with a rough end to the season ahead.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Current position: 9th (26 points, 10 wins, 10 losses, 3 byes, -108pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 9th (30pts, 12 wins, 12 losses)
Run home: Titans (w), Sharks (l), Eels (w), Raiders (l)
Verdict: If they can beat Melbourne and Penrith, they can beat anyone on their day but a loss to the Bulldogs kicked them out of the top eight. Like the Dolphins, their finals hopes are in their own hands and they just need to keep winning. A local derby against the Sharks in round 25 is another huge clash in the final month of the season, but they don’t yet have the consistency they need to be successful. They haven’t won back-to-back games since rounds 13-14.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Current position: 10th (24 points, 9 wins, 11 losses, 3 byes, -89pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 8th (30pts, 12 wins, 12 losses)
Run home: Sharks (l), Rabbitohs (w), Titans (w), Dolphins (w)
Verdict: A big win over the Wests Tigers at home needs to be the thing that kick starts the Knights on the run home, but after Cronulla’s surge back into form, the intensity of Sunday’s clash at PointsBet Stadium has ramped up. A loss to the Sharks won’t be a nail in the coffin, but it creates must-win games to finish off the season. If the Dolphins or Dragons can jag a few more wins though, it’s over.
CANBERRA RAIDERS
Current position: 11th (24 points, 9 wins, 11 losses, 3 byes, -97pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 11th (26pts, 10 wins, 14 losses)
Run home: Cowboys (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l), Dragons (w)
Verdict: After back-to-back wins the Raiders came crashing back down to earth in losses to the Bulldogs and Manly, which seriously hurts their finals chance coming into the last month. The draw makes it tough. Penrith in Canberra and the Roosters in Sydney, as well as a desperate Cowboys side and the surging Dragons. It’s not impossible, but it’s unlikely now.
BRISBANE BRONCOS
Current position: 12th (22 points, 9 wins, 12 losses, 2 byes, -4dp)
Whaley’s prediction: 12th (26pts, 10 wins, 14 losses)
Run home: Bye, Eels (w), Dolphins (l), Storm (l)
Verdict: A big win over the Cowboys and other results going their way has kept their faint finals hopes alive. A bye this week is ideal. A free two points and a freshen up before a massive three weeks, all at Suncorp Stadium. They’ll have to do it without Ezra Mam and Payne Haas, although the NSW prop is a slim chance to return from a foot injury. Reece Walsh picked up a wrist injury against the Cowboys too so the rest this week will do him good.
GOLD COAST TITANS
Current position: 13th (22 points, 8 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes, -98 pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 13th (22pts, 8 wins, 16 losses)
Run home: Dragons (l), Roosters (l), Knights (l), Panthers (l)
Verdict: They caught fire and burned out all at once. With everything on the line and needing to win every game to give themselves a chance of a miracle finals finish, the Titans were blown off the park by Cronulla in a season-ending 44-0 loss. They play only for pride now. Beau Fermor and Brian Kelly are a chance to return against the Dragons, while Mo Fotuaika will serve a week of suspension for a high tackle.
WARRIORS
Current position: 14th (21 points, 8 wins, 12 losses, 1 draw, 2 byes, -34pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 14th (23pts, 8 wins, 15 losses, 1 draw)
Run home: Sea Eagles (l), Bulldogs (l), Sharks (l), bye
Verdict: They’ve won two of their last eight games to utterly fizzle out, which is a huge shame after the excitement and success of 2023. They now face three top six sides before a bye to finish the year. The best they can hope for now is a fitting send off for retiring star Shaun Johnson, who is pushing to get back on a field with a quad injury.
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Current position: 15th (20 points, 7 wins, 13 losses, 3 byes, -136pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 13th (22pts, 8 wins, 16 losses)
Run home: Tigers (w), Knights (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l)
Verdict: The only thing that was missing from Souths’ season from hell was a white powder scandal. It’s the bingo card of rugby league nightmares, and they’ve just hit the jackpot. As the club and the NRL Integrity Unit investigates injured fullback Latrell Mitchell for the off-field drama, on the field it adds more pressure to the struggling side who have lost three in a row. A win against the Tigers could boost their spirits.
PARRAMATTA EELS
Current position: 16th (16 points, 5 wins, 15 losses, 3 byes, -163pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 16th (18pts, 6 wins, 18 losses)
Run home: Roosters (l), Broncos (l), Dragons (l), Tigers (w)
Verdict: After playing out one of the games of the season against Penrith, the Eels can have a positive end to what’s been one of their toughest years yet. If they can back up their performance against the Roosters on Friday night and trip up a few teams on the run home it’ll give fans a lot of hope heading into 2025.
WESTS TIGERS
Current position: 17th (12 points, 4 wins, 17 losses, 2 byes, -263 pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 17th (14pts, 4 wins, 20 losses)
Run home: Rabbitohs (l), Sea Eagles (l), bye, Eels (l)
Verdict: The points differential just keeps getting worse for the Tigers, who need a miracle now to avoid a third consecutive wooden spoon. It’s another awful piece of history they don’t need. Aidan Sezer failed to finish the loss to Newcastle and is in doubt to face Souths.
Originally published as The NRL Run Home: Fixtures, predicted ladder for NRL finals
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