NRL mid-season report: Panthers, Storm lead way, Rabbitohs and Raiders fading
NRL’s mid-season report cards are out. How could a consensus top four pick hit such a low ebb? The Raiders are just a poor reflection of the team that has been fighting to the death in recent years.
Teams
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While the Panthers and Storm are top students (I still can’t believe I tipped Penrith to finish fifth), marks for the likes of the Raiders and Knights show massive underachievement.
Can Ricky turn around the Raiders fortunes? Will Mitchell Pearce transform the Knights? Can the Broncos mount a late finals charge? It’s certainly going to be an intriguing final 13 rounds.
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Panthers
Grade: A+
Pre-season prediction: 5th
Record: 12 wins, 0 losses. Points differential: +306
If the Dally M Awards were handed out right now, Ivan and Nathan Cleary would take home the father-son double for player and coach of the year. And I’d have at least five others winning individual position awards, including Brian To’o, Matt Burton, Jarome Luai, James Fisher-Harris and Isaah Yeo. I’ll admit I was one of the group who stood there nodding in agreement the day Cooper Cronk told a gathering of journalists at Fox League’s launch that he expected the young Panthers to fall by the wayside this year. But haven’t they rubbed our noses in those pre-season predictions? Just the third team in history to start the season 12-0, with the best points differential of all time.
Storm
Grade: A+
Pre-season prediction: 1st
Record: 10 wins, 2 losses. Points differential: +262
Craig Bellamy’s done it again. No Cam Smith, no worries. They’ve now won nine straight, which is just exceptional when you factor in how many injuries, and especially to key players, Bellamy has had to deal with. And with the likes of Cameron Munster, Harry Grant and Ryan Papenhuyzen missing so much footy, what about the way this young Nicho Hynes has come of age since emerging as a regular starter. In fact, since round seven, Hynes’ stats are not quite as good as Tom Trbojevic’s but they are bloody close — with more tackle busts, linebreak assists and try assists. Then we read this week he has just signed a three-year deal with Cronulla worth a reported $600,000-a-season. If that’s all the Sharks are paying, they’ve got a bargain.
Eels
Grade: A-
Pre-season prediction: 7th
Record: 9 wins, 3 losses.
Points differential: +112
Have been disappointing the past two weeks with big losses against the Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs. But before you start bagging me for still giving the Eels an ‘A-’, take into account they are third on the ladder. And I reckon that’s a pretty fair achievement for a side that only has one Origin representative in Junior Paulo, after Reed Mahoney was sent home from the Queensland camp.
Rabbitohs
Grade: B-
Pre-season prediction: 2nd
Record: 9 wins, 3 losses
Points differential: +45
Have only lost three games, but those defeats have really left a huge question mark hanging over whether Wayne Bennett has any hope of finishing with a fairytale in what is likely to be his final year as a head coach. While they have the strike power and talent to make it look easy against the majority, they just can’t seem to match it with either the Storm or the Panthers when it comes to toughness or discipline. And having two 50-point hidings in the space of three weeks is just unacceptable for a team many rated a genuine title contender.
Roosters
Grade: B+
Pre-season prediction: 4th
Record: 8 wins, 4 losses
Points differential: +147
Realistically, the Roosters’ campaign was over when Luke Keary did his knee in round three. Then factor in Jake Friend’s concussion-forced retirement along with season-ending knee injuries to Brett Morris and Lindsay Collins. But despite all their setbacks, the one thing the Roosters never do is give up on each other, while I’ve loved watching the emergence of young Sam Walker who plays with as much courage as flamboyance. And the way the Roosters took down Canberra last round just showed what a brave footy team they continue to be. Still with the third best attack and third best defence this season.
Sea Eagles
Grading: B+
Pre-season prediction: 6th
Record: 6 wins, 6 losses
Points differential: +1
I certainly haven’t seen one player who makes such a massive difference to his team since Andrew Johns used to carry Newcastle on his back. Because it is not just how Tommy Turbo performs individually but the confidence and improvement he brings to every player in the team. And there is no better example than how he has changed the fortunes for his brother, Jake. Before Tom returned, poor Jake looked like he was ready to be sent off to a nursing home. Now he has legitimately won his NSW selection.
Cowboys
Grading: B+
Pre-season prediction: 11th
Record: 6 wins, 6 losses
Points differential: -87
Lost four straight to start the season and at that point I thought Todd Payten was really going to regret taking Jason Taumalolo to task publicly like he did. But they have turned it all around with six wins from eight games. Scott Drinkwater is really starting to show the tremendous talent that made him the pick of the crop when he was the Australian Schoolboy halfback alongside a young five-eighth named Nathan Cleary some years ago, while Val Holmes is getting better with each game at fullback.
Dragons
Grading: C+
Pre-season prediction: 13th
Record: 5 wins, 7 losses
Points differential: -19
Started like a house on fire, winning four of their first five under Anthony Griffin. But the wheels have fallen off since, losing six of the past seven. Somehow they’re still eighth on the ladder, which is way above where I had them finishing (13th). It will be interesting to see how Matt Dufty responds to the news he won’t be offered a new deal for next year. Regardless if you think Dufty is the answer going forward, right now he is the best strike weapon the Dragons have, and they need him firing.
Warriors
Grading: B
Pre-season prediction: 16th
Record: 5 wins, 7 losses
Points differential: -40
I’m embarrassed I had the Warriors as my wooden spoon pick — because they are now one of my favourite teams to watch because of this young excitement machine named Reece Walsh. And good on Nathan Brown for allowing the kid to play with such refreshing freedom.
I also can’t overstate how much admiration and respect I have for Roger Tuivasa-Sheck for the selfless way he has moved onto the wing and allowed the future to arrive before he leaves for rugby union.
Titans
Grading: D
Pre-season prediction: 8th
Record: 5 wins, 7 losses
Points differential: -55
Have shown glimpses of what they’re capable of but, if we’re being fair dinkum, the Titans get a “D’ for disappointing. And the game that summed them up best was against the Broncos when they led 22-0 after less than 20 minutes and still got beaten 36-28. Fox Sports Stats show discipline is a big issue, conceding the second most ruck infringements (4.7 per game), the third most penalties (5 per game) and fourth lowest completion rate (76.3%). Have also conceded 35 points or more five times.
Knights
Grading: D-
Pre-season prediction: 9th
Record: 5 wins, 7 losses
Points differential: -85
Haven’t had a lot of luck with injuries, in particular with Mitchell Pearce and Kalyn Ponga yet to be on the field at the same time. But even so, they’ve been completely underwhelming.
In fact, I reckon you could argue, in some of their games, they just haven’t held their gloves up, which would be a massive slap in the face for their loyal fans. At least Pearce is due back in a few weeks, which will make a big difference given their 18.1 points scored per game is the third fewest ahead of only Broncos (16) and Bulldogs (11.2).
Sharks
Grading: D
Pre-season prediction: 10th
Record: 4 wins, 8 losses
Points differential: -47
It’s pretty hard to go too tough on the Sharks players given what they’ve had to deal with.
The reality is they didn’t stand a chance from the moment the season kicked off, with John Morris fighting a losing battle to save his job. I know there is a lot of excitement about Craig Fitzgibbon’s pending arrival – and now the addition of young Hynes for next year adds to that. But things could and should have been handled a whole lot better. At least recent wins over the Dragons and Titans showed the players they can still make the top eight this year if they keep their minds on the job.
Wests Tigers
Grading: C –
Pre-season prediction: 12th
Record: 4 wins, 8 losses
Points differential: -74
Daine Laurie has been a revelation, Adam Doueihi an inspirational — and I can’t help but admire the dignified way coach Michael Maguire handled himself amid all that speculation that he was fighting to save his job. As for rating them overall, I tipped them to finish 12th, they’re currently 13th and starting to show signs of improvement. I can’t wait to see how they go against the Origin-depleted Panthers on Friday night. The fact the bookies still have Penrith favourites only highlights the massive gap we have in this competition.
Raiders
Grading: F
Pre-season prediction: 3rd
Record: 4 wins, 8 losses
Points differential: -86
I had the Raiders finishing the regular season in the top four and they were my pick for premiers. Yet that lacklustre performance they dished up against the injury-ravaged Roosters last weekend in Gosford summed up where they are at right now. Just a poor reflection of the tough and tenacious footy team that has been fighting to the death in recent years. Have butchered five 10-point leads — the most of any team — and from Round 5 onwards, the Raiders have been outscored 161-26 in the second halves of matches. Also have four losses by 20 points or more — their most since 2014.
Broncos
Grading: D-
Pre-season prediction: 15th
Record: 3 wins, 9 losses
Points differential: -154
A quick look through the Origin teams puts in perspective how far the Broncos have fallen as a footy club. There was a time when they went into this period missing the majority of their team. Now it’s only young Xavier Coates for Queensland and Payne Haas for NSW. As for how they are going under Kevvie Walters? I just wish they could turn up every week like they did against the Roosters recently. The reality is they have already conceded 40 points in a match four times this season — as many as last year.
Bulldogs
Grading: E
Pre-season prediction: 14th
Record: 1 win, 11 losses
Points differential: -226
It’s no great shock the Bulldogs are last, but I probably expected more improvement under Trent Barrett than what we’ve seen, especially in attack. So far they have only scored 134 points, and second worst is the Broncos with 192, while the Storm the best with 410.
Fox Sports Stats also show this is the first time since 1964 the club has lost 11 of the first 12 games, with their -226 points differential in 12 games their worst since 1935.
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Originally published as NRL mid-season report: Panthers, Storm lead way, Rabbitohs and Raiders fading
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