Wilfred’s fearless SuperCoach predictions for 2019

Now that SuperCoach has officially opened for 2019, what better time to fearlessly (and blindly) make some predictions for the upcoming season! Former champion Wilfred Zee has got you covered.

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Now that SuperCoach has officially opened for 2019, what better time to fearlessly (and blindly) make some predictions for the upcoming season.

I made some bold and not-so-bold calls last year, and was lucky to nail about four of 10. Two calls I was horribly wrong about though — Milford being the most consistent SuperCoach half and Thurston returning to be an elite half. Ouch!

As a positive though, I was dead accurate in predicting the declines of Paul Gallen and Simon Mannering while also touting the likes of Angus Crichton and Nathan Brown to be serious options in the coming season(s).

I was also partially right in saying that Cameron Smith would come back to the field of hookers, but I didn’t expect him to not be the top hooker anymore!

It just goes to show how tough this gig is, but it sure is a lot of fun! Let’s look at my 10 fearless predictions for the 2019 season.

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2016 NRL SuperCoach champion Wilfred Zee.

1. This will be the year of the Centre/Wing cheapies

Every year we look at the best strategies for taking out the overall crown in SuperCoach. There are plenty of similar but slightly different strategies, but at the heart of it all are cheapies, cheapies and more cheapies.

Each NRL preseason (especially over the last few years) have thrown us a number of curve balls but with all the craziness this off-season, it looks quite likely there will be an abundance of cheapies, and especially ones available in the CTW.

Load up, as this is the best outcome cheapie-wise given CTW cheapies often have the ability to explode quickly in price and can make $100,000 to $200,000 in a matter of a few weeks!

The added benefit of this is that we may be able to stack our other positions with more premium guns, and hopefully be able to get some strong, consistent points from Round 1.

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2. The 2019 overall winner will be the SuperCoach that nails the Centre/Wing position

Lots of CTW cheapies means playing CTW cheapie lottery in the early rounds. Picking the right ones to have in the team, picking the right ones to play and bench from week to week is a legitimate SuperCoach nightmare – but it will be essential to the overall winner.

And once those CTW cheapies are fattening up, working out which one to keep, which one to sell, and of course which fallen CTW gun will you move to?

Predicting which CTW keepers remain at keeper level has been difficult from year to year, as none of the top five averaging CTWs from 2017 came in as a top five averaging CTW in 2018, and only two from 2016 to 2017.

I’m equal parts intimidated and excited by the prospect of navigating this CTW nightmare already!

Tom Trbojevic is a slam dunk. Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images.

3. Fullback will be simple (at the end)

I predicted last year that Tommy Turbo and Teddy would be two highest averaging players in SuperCoach. I was wrong, but only because of an incredible, unforeseen breakout season from Damien Cook.

Turbo and Teddy were the second and third highest averaging players in SuperCoach last season, and locking in that combo early on was a no-brainer for many a SuperCoach.

I expect this to be the case again – come the end of season. The start? Not so clear, in my humble opinion. That’s a LOT of coin to have locked away, and you’ll definitely be short in the bye rounds.

Sometimes it’ll come down to a matter of team balance too, or budgetary restrictions.

There are times where you’d love to have Jake and Tom Trbojevic, but your funds remaining means that you can only have Jake Turbo plus Ben Barba, or Tom Turbo and Cam Murray. In that circumstance, I think I’d have to leave to the option with Ben Barba in it, as crazy as that sounds!

4. TPJ will be one of the top three Front Row Forwards in 2019

Yes, my mancrush features here. I wrote previously about how bad the FRF position is for SuperCoach, with Fifita and Taupau being head and shoulders above all other options last year and other options like Tapine now losing dual position status anyway.

I expect Fifita and Taupau to still be up there, but I’m predicting TPJ to join them at their level, if not even potentially overtaking them! It’s no surprise he is also a strong, bullocking runner who has a weapon of an offload and a penchant for the tryline.

He might even have joined them last year but for some health and fitness issues, so with a new coach, new conditioning and another year older, I think TPJ will officially reach ‘keeper level’ this year.

Tevita Pangai Junior will make a permanent move to the middle this season. Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images.

5. Nathan Cleary will takeover as the highest averaging HFB in 2019

Thurston and Johnson have long been mainstays in the halfback and five-eighth positions, with particularly JT dominating at halfback for years on end.

In fact, from 2013 to 2016 JT reigned supreme as the highest averaging halfback in every season, closely followed by SJ every year.

It wasn’t until 2017 that SJ overtook him, and sneakily, Nathan Cleary also snuck in at second (albeit from only half a season’s worth of games). SJ backed that up in 2018, even though his average from 2017 to 2018 was almost eight points per game less!

I believe 2019 will be Cleary’s year to shine however, as long as he maintains the goalkicking all season and is able to stay healthy for the majority of the year.

With strong base stats, deadly accurate goalkicking and the ability to score tries (usually through strong support play) and set them up (three tries and ten try assists in 15 games in 2018, 11 tries and 12 try assists in 24 games in 2017), he will be a real SuperCoach asset to anybody’s team.

Cleary could become the best halfback in SuperCoach.

6. Picking the highest averaging five eighth is really tough

As a result of changes to dual positioning status (both gains and losses for various players), the field at five eighth is incredible this year.

With names like Ponga, Munster, Widdop, Walker, Milford, Moylan, Hughes, Brimson, Watson, Keary and let’s not forget Morgan – it’s quite a selection of not-quite premium riches.

That’s right – none of these players apart from Ponga, based on 2018, are clear-cut, premium, top-shelf keepers based on their averages.

Even then, Ponga’s scores were mostly at fullback and also rely on him getting the goalkicking again, and Walker (the next highest average at 60.8 points per game) has a new coach at the helm.

All of those names have legitimate claims to be the top five eighth for the year, and nailing that call will take your team a long way to overall honours.

7. Damien Cook does it again

The new #1 hooker in the game, in both NRL and SuperCoach, will do it again. I know there are concerns from plenty out there that Wayne Bennett, the true SuperCoach, will kill off Damien Cook’s running game, or reduce his minutes, or any other negative type of play. I don’t understand this.

Bennett played Andrew McCullough for 80 minutes or at least 65+ minutes for the vast majority of the last two seasons – unless there’s a clear-cut gun hooker coming through the ranks at the Rabbitohs (which I don’t believe there is), I can’t see Bennett deviating from last year’s set up there.

Others criticise Bennett’s “defensively-minded, negative, conservative” play, but Bennett regularly oversaw top four offensive teams at the Broncos and also at the Dragons. Even the Knights in 2013 were a top eight offence!

I would find it extremely hard to believe that Bennett would suddenly stop Cook from turning to his running game, when it is obviously extremely effective.

On top of that, I just can’t see any of the other hookers catching Cook – his workrate in tackles and hit-ups just isn’t matched by any other, and Smith is only getting older.

Can Cook repeat his incredible season from last year? Picture by Brett Costello.

8. Jason Taumalolo will average below 70 and not be a top 3 Second Row Forward

Yeah, time to throw a few hairy ones out there now. Lolo is an absolute beast and he can do things on the field that no other player can do – let me start by getting that out of the way. However, he could be legitimately shortening his playing career if he gets burned out by the Cowboys if they put too much on him this early in his career. One man can only carry the team for so long after all.

With JT now retired, the premiership window they were worried about has most likely closed for the immediate future and this could also be recognised by the turnover in the rest of the team, with plenty of the older, soon-to-be-retired guard now moving on and fresh, younger blood signed to replace them.

In the forwards, McGuire is a big signing for them given his ability to play big minutes in the middle and remain effective for long periods of that time. McLean lifted his game big time in the second half of last year, with his first four games averaging just 40 minutes compared to 48 minutes per game once he returned in Round 20.

Lolo averaged 61.8 minutes per game in the games he played with McLean in the team, which was slightly lower than his season average of 64 last year. I can’t see him maintaining that many minutes next year, and he could find his game time sitting nearer to the 55 to 60 minute mark – a reduction of just enough time to see his average dip below the 70 points per game and outside of the top three 2RFs.

LISTEN! Resident SuperCoach experts Tom Sangster and Tim Williams have the lowdown on the players to target and avoid in 2019.

9. Blast from the past

Arguably this happened last year already but do you remember the “good ol’ days” of SuperCoach, when the top averages were dominated by forwards?

Particularly, second row forwards? Loading up on the likes of Gallen, Parker, Mannering, Fensom, Hindmarsh… well, I think we’re going to see a few more 2RFs dominate the top 10 in averages again this year – but not for their workrate.

These young forwards are all about the attack – Jake Turbo, Crichton, Taumalolo, Kikau, Martin, Arrow… all work hard but also have a penchant for an offload, a linebreak and a sneaky pie from time to time.

No prizes for guessing where I’ve loaded up on players from Round 1…

10. Smokey of 2019

This wild call is based on nothing except ‘the eye test’ and some simple, basic analysis, but my Smokey for 2019 is Joseph Manu.

Averaging just 43.6 last year (44.9 after adjusting for his injury-affected game), his first 12 games of the year yielded an average of just 31.9 points per game, including two tries, two try assists and a last touch assist during that time.

His workrate was low, and he just wasn’t seeing much ball.

Then from Round 14 on, it’s like a switch was flicked, and he went on to average 58.8 for the rest of the year – four tries, three try assists and one more last touch assist. His base stats also jumped up significantly, and clearly the Roosters were trying to get him involved.

His final five games saw him average 66.4 – impressive numbers considering his start to 2018!

I’m counting on him to carry more of the second half of last season through to be able to succeed, but with a genuine attacking threat in Crichton on his left, and a new wing partner (who also probably doesn’t take all his hitups) on his right, the opportunity is certainly there for him to succeed.

Bring on 2019

This off-season has been interesting to say the least, and I’m ready to rip in for another season of SuperCoach and the NRL. May all your team selections come together over the coming weeks as we all watch the trials and any further player movements with a keen eye.

Originally published as Wilfred’s fearless SuperCoach predictions for 2019