SuperCoach Plus article Round 1 2023: The stats set to decide opening NRL round
Valentine Holmes is all the rage in KFC SuperCoach due to the Cowboys’ dream draw to start the season. But these shock stats could have you reaching for the ‘reverse trade’ button.
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I’m back again to kick off 2023 with 11 Stats to define KFC SuperCoach Round 1.
Each week I’ll dive in to find some key stats to decide the upcoming round.
Let’s check out the all-important opening weekend.
19
The Cowboys have a great opening draw and with a very settled team, plenty are expecting big things from them. However, it’s worth remembering that the Cowboys also had a great opening draw last year (easy match-ups plus also only left Queensland eight times in the opening 10 games). During the first six games, they averaged ‘only’ 19 points per game, scoring 3.3 tries per game. I say ‘only’ compared to their season average of 26.4 points per game, scoring an average of 4.5 tries per game.
It’s a significant difference, and one that has obvious KFC SuperCoach implications given how much we love attacking stats. In fact, this led to the Cowboys (as a whole team) scoring 82.7 KFC SuperCoach less per week than their season-long team average of 824 KFC SuperCoach points per round. What this means is that the Cowboys, even if they win these games, may do so off the back of their defence and not necessarily blowing teams off the park with their attack. Of course, there’s every chance that the Cowboys fly out the blocks given their relatively settled line-up, but it’s some definite food for thought!
4
The Warriors have played just four games in New Zealand in the past three seasons, with 25 of their ‘home’ games played at a variety of locations including Gosford, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Redcliffe.
It’s not just the home games themselves but obviously the incredibly long periods away from family and friends. The Warriors’ players and staff have sacrificed so much and no doubt it means a great deal for them to be able to consistently play games at home in New Zealand this season. The Warriors may yet end up more competitive than first thought by many KFC SuperCoaches who may have targeted them as an easy match-up, especially in the early part of the season.
3
Some of you will remember that Nathan Brown tried Kalyn Ponga at five-eighth at the start of the 2019 NRL season. He lasted three games there, averaging just 41.3 KFC SuperCoach points per game. He shifted back to fullback immediately after that, and rattled off eight games prior to the first bye round at an average of 90.8 KFC SuperCoach points per game.
Ponga is obviously a bit older now, more mature on the field, and it really is getting to a point where he needs to deliver. There is a world where the Ponga five-eighth experiment pays off however the main question is, does it click from Round 1?
86.9
Nathan Cleary has enjoyed playing off the back of Apisai Koroisau for the past three seasons, and as one of the best hookers in the NRL, Koroisau was able to deliver great consistent service, along with posing a genuine attacking threat at all times himself. It cannot be understated how much difference a quality hooker can make to an NRL team, as well as the halves.
However, Cleary has still had a few games without Koroisau at hooker – nine of them in fact, and in those nine games he still managed to average 86.9 KFC SuperCoach points per game. Having said that, those nine games were spread across 2020 and 2021 (three in 2020, six in 2021) so we don’t have anything more recent, but it shows that even without Koroisau at hooker, Cleary can still be an absolute force for KFC SuperCoach.
749
More specifically, 684 regular season NRL games and 65 NRL finals games – that’s the amount of experience that walked out the door at the Melbourne Storm from just three players.
While arguably the best years are well in the rearview mirror for Jesse Bromwich, Kenny Bromwich and Felise Kaufusi, the experience will be sorely missed and in some ways the Storm will be almost unrecognisable when they run out against the Eels in Round 1 this week.
8
It’s clear as day that the Bulldogs have been revitalised in the space of one off-season. Just look at the 17 who ran out in Round 25 last year compared to the team that should run out in Round 1 this year – only eight names remain the same.
They have a new hooker, a new fullback, a new centre pairing as well as significant turnover in their forward pack. With all this change, while on paper it looks like a definite upgrade, the team will need some time to gel and settle into their new combinations. This may have flow-on effects on both sides of the ball, which may ultimately impact the prospects of KFC SuperCoach options like Matt Burton and Hayze Perham.
67.9
There’s plenty of interest in Teig Wilton as a midrange 2RF option, and with an average of 67.9 points per game from his seven games playing 80 minutes last season, it makes sense. The concern is if Wade Graham takes some game time off him, though he still scored decently when playing 60+ minutes (average of 60.9 from 11 games). When Teig is priced at a sub-48 points per game average, there’s a decent amount of growth available for him even if not getting the full 80 minutes.
97.2
There might be something to this US-based ‘Hamstring Whisperer’ that all the NRL players are seeing lately, because the difference before and after this trip for Latrell Mitchell last year was like chalk and cheese. He started off the season with an average of 63.0 points per game from his first three games, then got injured in his fourth game. After his return in Round 16, Latrell went on to average a whopping 97.2 points per game for the following 10 games, and he certainly looked much more comfortable doing it. The big question is, does this form continue into 2023?
4
There is plenty of interest in Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow as a starting CTW option, and for good reason – we all love fullbacks, and especially when they’re available at the CTW position. The Hammer played four 80 minute games at fullback last year, and averaged just 41 points per game.
What’s concerning is that he also only averaged 29 points per game in base and base attack stats, which means he will be extra reliant on attacking stats to score well and make money. Now, Hamiso is very good at finding those attacking stats but the Dolphins may struggle out of the blocks, which means any cash generation might be quite limited early on. There could be some merit in skipping the Hammer from Round 1.
67
Egan Butcher has the opportunity to start on the left edge for the Roosters for an extended period of time as a result of Angus Crichton’s extended personal leave. Firstly, I hope Angus gets the help and support he needs and he is able to return to the game as soon as he is ready. However, Egan now has the chance to showcase his ability as a starter for an extended period of time.
We’ve seen glimpses of his potential, and in the five games across the last two seasons where Egan has played bigger minutes (either on the edge or at lock), he has averaged 67 points per game from approximately 56.5 minutes per game. What’s most impressive is he has scored almost 61 points per game in this span in base and base attack stats; this shows that he is a hard worker and playing on the left edge means he gets the chance to run off the hip of Luke Keary. Those who take the punt on Egan could enjoy a fast start!
1
The last time the Titans took on the Tigers we saw an ‘enthralling’ 8-6 win to the Titans, courtesy of a 78th minute try to AJ Brimson. This was the only try of the game, with all the other points coming by way of penalty goals and a conversion.
KFC SuperCoaches will be hoping that this game will be more like the time before when these clubs met, and played out a 36-28 victory to the Titans. This means we may need to temper our expectations of what scores our Titans and Tigers players will take out of this game!
Originally published as SuperCoach Plus article Round 1 2023: The stats set to decide opening NRL round
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