SuperCoach NRL: 20 mid-range picks that could pay off

Traditionally the mid-ranger is anathema to SuperCoaches, but 2024 has thrown up a bumper crop of buys worth considering. We look at who shone and who stank in the trials.

‘Cheapies and Guns’ is the traditional path to NRL SuperCoach success, with the guns getting you your points and the cheapies making the cash required to upgrade your roster.

But sometimes the right mid-ranger can do both those jobs, earning you ‘gun’ points and making big bucks as well.

This year the mid-range class runs unusually deep and we’ve rated 20 of the most popular picks to save you doing the work.

Shaun Lane ($446,200) 2RF

Parramatta’s Shaun Lane, the first of what looks like an absolute glut of mid-range 2RF options, may be the best one. Lane had an absolute breakout in 2022 averaging 69 points-per-game (PPG) in 77 minutes-per-game (MPG) before injury cruelled his 2023 limiting him to 10 games averaging 44PPG from 61MPG. Lane’s 2023 loss is our win. Provided he is fit and healthy (and pre-season reports are good) there is real value here. I will say that I believe the 69PPG average of 2022 is an outlier boosted by a glut of attacking stats but he doesn’t need to average 25PPG above his price to be a ‘buy’. A healthy Lane should average 45-50PPG in base alone thus covering his price. After that it is all upside and Lane should be good for a conservative 10-15PPG in ‘upside’ coming from offloads/tackle busts and linebreak/scoring.

TRIAL NOTES: Lane has been used sparingly by the Eels in the trials. while Bryce Cartwright looks to have the right edge position locked up, Lane has been sharing the role with new recruit Kelma Tuilagi. As a result I am fading him slightly. Prefer others.

Shaun Lane was the pick of the mid-rangers but will he be in a job share arrangement? Picture: NRL Photos

Beau Fermor ($467,300) 2RF

After a barnstorming 2022, Fermor was being mentioned as a Maroon in waiting who would join the elite in 2023 only for a pre-season ACL injury to rub him out of the entire season. After a big pre-season Fermor is expected to resume his 80-minute role on an edge for the Titans and he does so priced at a big discount to his 2022 output. How big? Well in 2022 Fermor averaged 65PPG – his 2024 starting price is set at 20PPG discount to that. I should note that Fermor’s 2022 scoring was boosted by a seemingly unsustainable rate of try scoring (he led the team with 11 tries) but it also included 45PPG in base so, like Lane above, I expect Fermor to cover his starting price via base stat output alone which leaves all the attacking stats as profit.

TRIAL NOTES: Fermor has looked good in trials and I have him as my top-rated mid-range 2RF at this stage. The injury to David Fifita has him locked into the profitable left side at the Titans. Keen.

Viliame Kikau ($468,500) 2RF

Another of the 2023 injury-impacted brigade, Big Billy Kiks played the first four games of 2023 then tore his pectoral muscle and was not seen on the field again until round 22. From his nine games in 2023 Kikau averaged just 46PPG while in his previous seasons he had averaged 61PPG (2020), 59PPG (2021) and 65PPG (2022). The injury would no doubt have played a role here in that low 2023 number and I do see value for 2024. But it also has to be noted that Kikau joined the Bulldogs in 2023 and his previous much higher averages came playing for the Panthers where he was a focal point of a much better attacking unit. Even at his best Kikau was never a ‘worker’ and so his scores were lumpy. I’m tempted by the price but am approaching with some caution.

TRIAL NOTES: The Bulldogs did not ask much of Kikau in the trials and as a result you re taking him on trust. Injuries and trades at the Cowboys have opened the door for Heilum Luki ($471,300) to lock down a big minute role and I have him ahead of Kikau now. Prefer others.

Josh Curran ($421,700) 2RF

I don’t consider Curran to be the safe pick that Lane is, but he arguably has more upside. After being seemingly squeezed out of the Warriors rotation over recent years (Curran averaged 70MPG in 2021, 64MPG in 2022 and just 49MPG in 2023 for the New Zealand based team) the Blacktown Patrician Brothers product joined the Bulldogs in the off-season. New club equals new opportunities but it also equals more uncertainty regarding where he will be used. I’ve seen Curran slotted in at prop, lock and the bench in best 17s. Bench is obviously SuperCoach poison. If named there come round one then he’s out. Prop could be interesting. A little undersized compared to the big boppers in the league, I believe Curran is tough enough to handle the job in a manner akin the slightly smaller Cowboys and Maroons star Reuben Cotter. Lock would be the sweet spot for me offering Curran the chance to do work in the middle but also the freedom to play the ball more and break lines with his shifty footwork. Keep an eye on trials.

TRIAL NOTES: Curran looked solid in the All-Stars and then trialled well for the Bulldogs with a solid workrate and some nice moments in attack. Curran played limited minutes in the second trial which was a little concerning but then club supremo Phil Gould divulged that it was a virus rather than any game plan that saw Curran pulled at half time. Still keen.

Sam Hughes (head knock) and Josh Curran (virus) had to pull out of the trial game on Friday night at half time after limited minutes. That wasn’t planned. Connor Tracey and Jacob Kiraz have not played any trial minutes. Chris Patolo has not played any football since very early… https://t.co/PpNSCpjJG6

— Phil Gould (@PhilGould15) February 25, 2024

Siua Wong of the Roosters is has potential ‘gun’ written all over him. Picture: Getty Images

Siua Wong ($462,000) 2RF

I kind of stalked the Roosters in the pre-season leading into 2023 (no such luck this season with their regular training ground closed off for repairs) and can recall watching Wong look every part the regular first grader back then. The Roosters roster is no easy thing to crack though, and the young man had to wait until round 18 to make his NRL debut and round 23 to make his first start. Wong then held on to that starting job through the remainder of the regular season and in the two finals the Roosters played last year. As a starter Wong averaged 55.2PPG but thanks to his earlier bench games with limited minutes he starts 2024 priced at about a $100K discount to that average There’s value here and he’s clearly got bucketloads of talent. However, the Roosters have an absolutely stacked pack and that has me rating Wong a little behind those 2RF options above as far as SuperCoach goes.

TRIAL NOTES: Wong has all the talent in the world, but the Roosters backrow is STACKED with Wong, Butcher (Nat), Angus Crichton and Sitili Tupouniua all competing for minutes against Manly. Prefer others.

Brendan Piakura ($426,800) 2RF

The last of a long list of mid-range 2RF options, Piakura has plenty of upside but also some queries. Kurt Capewell’s off-season departure opens the door on the left edge of the Broncos and by all accounts Piakura is the man leading the race to replace. In 2023 Piakura played five games of 60+ minutes and from those he averaged a rather good 59.6PPG. His workrate is not elite – from those five games Piakura averaged a tick under 40PPG – but that should not be fatal to his appeal. Piakura may not be a workhorse, but he does have plenty of attack in him with good feet providing tackle bust numbers and a nose for a try bringing try/linebreaks. His scoring will be lumpier than the other mid-range 2RFs above but the reward could be worth the risk.

TRIAL NOTES: Piakura was superb for the Broncos in their one genuine trial. He injured his knee (MCL) but by all accounts is going to fine for round one. Keen.

Brendan Piakura is not a workhorse but he brings plenty in attack.

Taylan May ($458,800) CTW

The departure of Stephen Crichton opens a centre slot at the Panthers. Known more as a winger, May (who did not play any NRL games in 2023 after injuring his ACL in the World Club Challenge) has played some centre at NSW Cup level and reportedly spent the season bulking up in preparation for the shift. A stalwart in early editions of my team I’m actually starting to fade May a little. Firstly there’s the stiff competition for the job from the likes of Tyrone Peachey, new recruit Paul Alamoti and youngster Jesse McLean. Then there’s the price which is awkwardly high. Then there’s the fact that a move to centre will cost May a lot of runs, does he have the hands/creativity to make up for that?

TRIAL NOTES: May was busy in attack and safe in defence in Penrith’s one pre-season trial the World Club Challenge. Still keen.

Keenan Palasia ($365,200) FRF/2RF

In the mix for the starting role at the Titans after making the move from the Broncos. He averaged 45PPG in the second half of 2023 with Brisbane when he played 45 minutes or more in the final nine games. Not flashy but is value and has dual FRF positioning.

TRIAL NOTES: Palasia started at prop for the Titans in their trial against the Eels which was a promising sign, but his workrate in attack and defence was not. Fading.

Jayden Campbell appears to be guaranteed first shot at playing fullback at the Titans. Picture: Getty Images

Jayden Campbell ($456,200) 5/8|FLB

Bit of a high risk/reward chance here. After mixing his time in 2023 between fullback (nine starts), five-eighth (three starts) and bench (10 ‘starts’) the word from the glitter strip is that Campbell will make fullback his own to start 2024. Those bench stints brought Campbell’s average, and thus 2024 starting price, down. As a fullback in 2023 Campbell averaged 56.4PPG (NB I have removed his eight point injury affected game in round eight from the calcs here in attempt to give truer look at his potential at the position). You would think he could improve on that after a full pre-season training at the position and a season to work on his combinations. Priced at around a 45PPG average clearly there’s upside here. The risk is that Campbell is not a workaholic fullback; he just is not built for making a huge number of hitups. The reward is that the likes of Reece Walsh and Kalyn Ponga aren’t workaholics either and look at how they went in 2023. I would not use a fullback slot on Campbell, but there’s some temptation in slotting him at 5/8 as an upside guy who just needs two or three big early games to make the trade to a Dylan Brown or Cameron Munster a cheap and easy upgrade. And those big early scores look possible as the Titans have what looks to be, on paper, a soft draw to start the season with Dragons, Bye, Bulldogs, Dolphins, Cowboys, Raiders and Sea Eagles in the first seven rounds.

TRIAL NOTES: Injured in the pre-season and will not be back until around round four. Pass.

Aidan Sezer ($345,000) HFB|5/8

A former Raider and Titan, Sezer is now back in the NRL after a stint in the Super League. A strong chance to start in the halves for the Tigers, I also expect Sezer to take the goalkicking duties. It’s the kicking that is crucial here. Without that job I see Sezer averaging 35-40PPG which is exactly where he is priced at. With the kicking I expect Sezer to average 45-50PPG and that’s a mark at which he’ll both provide a serviceable backup and make some cash.

TRIAL NOTES: Appears to have NOT won the kicking job with the Tigers preferring Api Koroisau in the job. Fading.

Morgan Smithies has joined Canberra from Super League club Wigan.

Morgan Smithies ($345,000) 2RF

The latest in the Raiders production line of hard-nosed UK imports, Smithies joins the Green Machine after tasting Super League success with Wigan. I don’t watch much Super League so can’t provide any insight there but a look through last season’s stats for Wigan tell some sort of story. Expect plenty of tackles, worryingly expect a few missed tackles too. Plenty of runs are on the table, but lots of those could be decoys – boo.

So he has the ability but will the Englishman obtain that other critical component of SuperCoach success – opportunity? Short term it’s looking very likely. Canberra’s regular 2023 lock Corey Horsburgh is suspended for the opening rounds of the season. Raiders veteran Joe Tapine, via my colleague and SuperCoach sensation Fatima Kdouh, is tipping Smithies to take that job. But what happens when Horsburgh is back? That’s the fear and it’s the issue that has me approaching Smithies with caution.

TRIAL NOTES: Started at lock in the Raiders’ trial against the Cowboys and looked solid. Not fancy, but solid with zero missed tackles and enough runs to make a profit. Keen.

Jesse Arthars ($376,000) CTW

Arthars is the frontrunner for the right wing spot with Selwyn Cobbo moving to left centre. With Reece Walsh and Adam Reynolds feeding that side in attack he’s in the perfect position for a bag of tries to lift his scoring. Last season he had eight tries playing mostly on the left wing with a top score of 66, while Cobbo scored 19 tries in 21 games on the right side.

TRIAL NOTES: Looks to have won the wing spot at the Broncos. Has not looked spectacular and I do prefer others with higher workrates. Okay at price, prefer others.

Dylan Lucas ($502,300) 2RF|CTW

Lucas made four starts on an edge for the Knights in 2023 and he averaged 70.25PPG with a superb 56PPG of that coming in base. Available in the centres those numbers scream BUY! But there’s a wrinkle. Lucas has competition for that edge slot with the arrival of ‘the English Sonny Bill Williams’ Kai Pearce-Paul (KPP), and we’re not likely to know Lucas’s longer term security until a few weeks into the season because KPP was sent for surgery not long after joining the Knights and is not expected to be at his best until some weeks into the season even if he makes a surprise round one appearance. At best you spend $500K on a CTW who plays in the 2RF and delivers you seriously reliable scores while providing dual-position trade flexibility. That’s money well spent. At worst your $500K investment is pushed to the bench in round three forcing you into a wasted trade.

TRIAL NOTES: Was very very good in the first trial for the Knights. But, Pearce-Paul did not play in that trial. He did in the second, and he looked good which has me worried that Lucas may be in a job share situation at best. Reluctant pass.

Kai Pearce-Paul ($345,000) 2RF

I suppose we’d best take a look at KPP then eh? Another former Wigan star, the new Knight spent most of his time as a starting edge for the Super League champions but can also cover centre and utility. As befits the ‘next SBW’ moniker, KPP loves an offload and averaged almost two per match for Wigan. He also showed a solid workrate averaging a little over 25 tackles per game while also making double figure runs. Sub-$350K for that output, from a guy good enough to have already won two caps for England, is a bargain. But there’s the foot issue. Unless he powers through the trials and starts in round one I don’t think you can pick KPP yet. But watch this space as he prospects as a tremendous downgrade option as soon as he is fully fit.

TRIAL NOTES: Looked good in the second trial and at the price I am strongly considering stashing him as my sixth 2RF as he should cover his price even on the bench but make a big profit if/once he starts.

Josh Schuster ($460,800) 2RF

Tom Sangster has picked Schuster ‘with gritted teeth’ given the Manly man’s well-documented struggles. Of course, we’ll be told during the pre-season that Schuster is “training the house” down but can we really believe it? No. But what we can go on is the numbers and there are positive signs here. Schuster averaged 61 the last time he played back row in 2021, which is where he’ll play this year following the recruitment of Luke Brooks to play in the halves. I’m not sure if I’ve ever quoted Rob Sutherland but he’s on the money here (full story): “Schuster was playing for a contract in 2021. In 2024 he’ll be in the middle of a fat contract and for a player whose commitment to doing the extras has often been questioned, that’s a worry.” Equally, rebound stories are what SuperCoach is all about, getting a player low before they go high etc.

TRIAL NOTES: Injured again in the pre-season and has to be a hard pass.

Is Josh Schuster a gamble you want to take? Picture: NRL Photos

Drew Hutchison ($354,900) HFB\CTW

A Mr-fix-it for the Roosters, Hutchison joined the Bulldogs in the off-season. No club recruited more volume than the Dogs in the off-season and it’s fair to say that almost every position is up for grabs. One popular team sheet sees Matt Burton shift to the centres in 2024 and if this were to occur then Hutchison is being touted as a good chance to nab a start in the halves. If he does then ‘Fat Aubo’ is worth some consideration. Don’t believe me? The stats don’t lie. As a starting half in 2023 Hutchison averaged 62PPG. To be fair, the stats don’t perhaps tell the whole story. DHutch started just four games in the halves, and in one of those he scored 130 points – which slightly skewed the average if I’m being honest. And there’s job security issues. And it’s the Dogs. So, approach with caution but approach.

TRIAL NOTES: Looked solid if unspectacular in the trials. Does appear to have beaten Toby Sexton for the job at the Dogs. Probably worth the risk at the price.

Thomas Flegler ($475,600) FRF

What is going on here? At the time of writing Tom Flegler was in 21% of SuperCoach teams. Which is nuts. And whoa up there you pumpkin scone scoffing Queenslanders; I’m not saying Flegler isn’t a very good prop. He is. And yes, I know he has changed clubs in the off-season. But what Tom Flegler gave the Broncos in 2023 (ie around 45-50MPG of no-nonsense go forward and aggression) is exactly what he is expected to bring for his new club the Dolphins in 2024. In other words, what you’ll get from Flegler is what you’re paying for. It’s very hard to see upside or increased opportunity here.

TRIAL NOTES: Showed good workrate in the trials and threw a tasty three offloads against the Warriors. I did think there was a lack of value here, but the ACL injury by Tom Gilbert leaves a big hole in the middle for the Dolphins and as a result Flegler may see more minutes. One I am warming to.

Tom Flegler is a great recruit by the Dolphins, but does he offer SuperCoach upside? Picture: Getty Images

Brendan Hands ($342,300) HOK

Another I find a little odd is Brendan Hands being in more than 11% of teams. On the one hand it makes sense if all you is considering is this story where Parramatta coach Brad Arthur made it clear that his preference in 2024 was to play one hooker for the entire 80 minutes. In 2023 Hands played five 80-minute games and averaged 55.8PPG when doing so. But as a result of quite a few games where he shared the job either with Josh Hodgson or Joey Lussick, Hands is available priced at around 33.5PPG. And there’s the rub. Hodgson may be retired, but it was Lussick not Hands who finished 2023 as Arthur’s preferred number 9. If either of Hands or Lussick are named to start Rd 1 and the other is on the bench then neither has value. But, if just one of Hands or Lussick is named to start and there is no bench hooker, then I will change my tune.

TRIAL NOTES: Looks to have lost out to Lussick. Pass.

Angus Crichton ($409,300) 2RF

In 2020 the Mighty Angus averaged 76PPG, rolled on averaging 75PPG in 2021 and then tapered only slightly to finish on 66PPG in 2022. In 2023, that output plummeted to just 40PPG as Crichton dealt with a number of on and off-field issues. Don’t let his rugged visage fool you, Crichton, who turns 28 in February, is still a relatively young man with his best years as a forward ahead of him. But will those years be at the Roosters? At this stage Nat Butcher, Wong, Sitili Tupouniua and possibly Egan Butcher might be considered to be in front of Crichton in the 2RF pecking order at the Roosters. That just seems wrong for a man who was playing for NSW and Australia in 2022 and should things change at the Roosters or clubs change for Crichton then he’d be a bargain at his current price.

TRIAL NOTES: Looked pretty good in trial against Manly but the backrow logjam at Roosters means he is a miss.

Bronson Xerri ($345,100) CTW

Xerri is back in the game after a lengthy ban for breaching doping regulations. Reportedly training the house down at the Bulldogs, Xerri has plenty of competition for a starting role in the centres but is reportedly leading that race. If named to start Rd 1 then he’s in, if not it’s back to that drawing board.

TRIAL NOTES: Has looked busy in the trials doing plenty of work bringing the ball back from kicks. At his price I am still keen.

Originally published as SuperCoach NRL: 20 mid-range picks that could pay off