NRL SuperCoach guns rated: The expensive players set to fire and fizzle early

The first step for selecting a SuperCoach squad is deciding which premium players to spend big on. We analyse who’ll be top, who’ll flop and the match-ups that matter.

Kalyn Ponga is the must-pick player of the 25 most expensive players in NRL SuperCoach 2025 with the fixtures and form to set your team flying in the opening three rounds.

The Knights fullback faces three teams he has torn to shreds with triple figure scores in his last two match ups. First up it’s the Tigers – 124 in 2024 and 137 in 2023.

Round 2 it’s the Dolphins who he hit for 121 and 106 in 2024. Then it’s the Titans who he put 114 and 118 on.

The only hitch in the Ponga pick is a round 4 bye, but with matches against the Tigers in Round 6 and Titans in Round 10 his nine weeks of soft matches could well outscore any rivals who avoid the early bye.

My first step for selecting a SuperCoach squad is deciding which premium players I want to spend the bulk of my salary cap on to start the season while funds are tight.

If I’m spending up big I want those players to be captaincy material.

I’ve analysed the 25 most expensive players of 2025 over the first 10 rounds looking at three key numbers – pedigree (career average v opponent), recent form (three-year average v opponent) and venue average.

The top five in each category each round get a tally on the captaincy matrix, giving a guide of which captains I want and when.

*** SEE FULL CAPTAINCY MATRIX BELOW ***

Ponga lights it up early along with Tom Trbojevic but then Nathan Cleary and Nicho Hynes become almost impossible to ignore. All four of those players are locked into my starting team.

Here’s my verdict on which players are really worth the big bucks, their captaincy prospects, when to target them and the matchups that matter.

Nicho Hynes has a great opening schedule.

VERDICT ON 25 MOST EXPENSIVE PLAYERS

1 James Tedesco, $920,200

First bye: Rd 10

Captaincy prospects: Tedesco’s coming off his best season since 2020 and the Roosters have had a massive turnover in the squad with new halves and centres to start the season. His best captaincy shouts are the Titans (92PPG) in Rd 4 and the Dragons (84.5PPG) in Rd 8. But he also plays the Panthers in rounds two and seven. He averages 59.5 PPG against the premiers so I’d expect a reasonable price drop and look for him after he’s clear of the Rd 10 bye.

Verdict: Avoid

2 Tom Trbojevic, $875,600

First bye: Rd 9

Captaincy prospects: Turbo has some huge career averages against his first four opponents – Cowboys 85PPG, Warriors 93.4PPG, Raiders 93.8PPG and Eels 82.1PPG. He also has five of the first seven games at home where he averages 84.5PPG. Round 8 could be time to jump off as he hits the Panthers then the bye.

Verdict: Buy

3 Latrell Mitchell, $866,800

First bye: Rd 12

Captaincy prospects: Mitchell had his best season in 2024 with 88.5 PPG from just 11 games and he was sin-binned in three of those. The ill-discipline and time off field chipped 5.5PPG off his average. He has the Dolphins in Rd 1 and scored 121 on them in his only game against them. The Panthers (Rd 4) drag down most other players but Mitchell averages 83.5 PPG in recent games against them. His recent form is also strong against the Cowboys 91.5PPG in Rd 6, Bulldogs 117PPG in Rd 7 and Broncos 85.3 PPG in Rd 10.

Verdict: A tentative buy. Don’t love him at peak price but there’s some value if he keeps his cool. The best set and forget gun fullback with a bye in round 12.

4 Dylan Edwards, $839,000

First bye: Rd 11

Captaincy prospects: Edwards’ 85.7 PPG in 2024 was a massive jump from his previous best of 69.1 PPG in 2023. He averaged 90PPG without Nathan Cleary when he picked up the goalkicking and 77 PPG with Cleary in the team. Edwards is only an option for me if Cleary is out.

Verdict: Avoid

Methodology:

* The top 25 most expensive players of 2025 have been analysed over the first 10 rounds.

* Each round, players receive one point if they are in the top five of 25 for: Career average v team, three-year average v team and average at venue.

* The maximum number of points per round is therefore three.

* The maximum number of points over the first 10 rounds is therefore 30, with Nicho Hynes notching the best score of 21.

5 Nathan Cleary, $811,500

First bye: Rd 11

Captaincy prospects: Cleary played just 10 games in 2024 so comes in at his lowest starting price since 2021. The only blips on the captaincy radar are a 58.1 career average against the Storm (round 3) and 60PPG in the past three seasons v the Rabbitohs (round 4). He lights up the captaincy board in the other eight of the opening 10 rounds with the lowest average 79.3PPG against the Roosters.

Verdict: Must buy

6 Jahrome Hughes, $805,200

First bye: Rd 2

Captaincy prospects: Dally M medal winner Hughes has an early bye and a career average of 45.5 PPG against the Panthers in Rd 3. Pick him up at a discount from Rd 6 when he is a serious captain option in a run including his favourite career opponents in the Warriors (89.2 PPG) Rd 6, Dolphins (95 PPG) in Rd 7 and Tigers (104.4 PPG) Rd 10.

Verdict: Avoid

Kalyn Ponga has a great schedule to start the season. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images

7 Kalyn Ponga, $790,300

First bye: Rd 4

Captaincy prospects: Ponga couldn’t ask for a better opening three rounds. He’s put triple figures on twice in recent seasons against the Tigers, Dolphins and Titans. The only hitch is the Rd 4 bye but if you can hold him through that the Tigers are up again in Rd 6 and the Titans in Rd 10.

Verdict: The best early captain.

8 Valentine Holmes, $784,500

First bye: Rd 3

Captaincy prospects: Holmes was the NRL’s top point scorer in 2024 at the Cowboys but has moved on to the Dragons. The Cowboys ranked fourth for tries in 2024, while the Dragons were 14th. He simply won’t have the same attacking opportunities and shots at goal. If something drastically changes at the Dragons look for Holmes against the Tigers in Rd 9 with scores of 136, 136, 117 and 119 in his past six against them.

Verdict: Avoid

9 Zac Lomax, $773,800

First bye: Rd 8

Captaincy prospects: His 79.8 PPG season on the wing in 2024 was a massive jump from the average in the low 60s in the two years prior when he played in the centres. He’s moved to the Eels, is back in the centres and has to take the goalkicking from Mitch Moses. It’s hard not to see his output going backwards but if you’re a believer look for Lomax in Rd 2 and 7 against the Tigers – he’s scored 170 and 115 against them the past two seasons.

Verdict: Avoid

Scott Drinkwater scored the second most points of any player in 2024. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

10 Scott Drinkwater, $770,100

First bye: Rd 7

Captaincy prospects: Drinkwater scored the second most points of any player in 2024 but averaged 78.7 PPG putting him sixth among fullbacks. He doesn’t ping on the captaincy radar except for the Titans in Rd 8. The gamechanger for the Cowboys fullback could be the goalkicking. Valentine Holmes added 15.7 PPG from goalkicking, if Drinkwater picks up the kicking tee this season he’s potentially ticking past the 90 PPG barrier and close to the top overall player.

Verdict: Buy if goalkicking.

11 Angus Crichton, $758,700

First bye: Rd 10

Captaincy prospects: If Crichton is facing a Queensland club bank on a big score. He has career averages of Broncos (82.6) Rd 1 and 6, Titans (105.8) Rd 4, Dolphins (75PPG) Rd 9. Crichton started 2024 off the bench but from Rd 5 onwards averaged 83.6PPG including four hundreds so you can argue he is underpriced based off his 77.5 PPG in 2024. The go to player if you want to spend up in 2RF.

Verdict: The pick of the position with some value and huge upside.

12 David Fifita, $749,400

First bye: Rd 1

Captaincy prospects: Fifita pings on the captaincy radar as often as Crichton but the Rd 1 bye and a delayed return to training make him a wait and see. Rd 5 could be the time to pick him up with strong three-year averages in Rd 5 (76.3PPG v Dolphins), Rd 6 (78PPG v Dragons), Rd 8 (81PPG v Cowboys), Rd 9 (87PPG v Bulldogs).

Verdict: Avoid

David Fifita is an avoid to start the season. Picture: Matt Roberts/Getty Images

13 Reece Walsh, $738,400

First bye: Rd 12

Captaincy prospects: Walsh has six of the first nine games at Suncorp Stadium where he lights it up with a 76.8 PPG average. Walsh has punished Rd 2 opponents the Raiders since joining the Broncos with scores of 110, 114 and 86. Walsh kicked goals in six games last year when Adam Reynolds was out and he topped up his scores with 11.3PPG. Any further injury struggles for the Broncos captain enhance Walsh’s prospects.

Verdict: Buy, ideal third fullback if using guns in Flex position. No early byes is a massive positive.

14 Nicho Hynes, $735,500

First bye: Rd 13

Captaincy prospects: Hynes averaged 75.1PPG in 2024, a big drop from his 95PPG in 2023 and 85.8 PPG in 2022. It was a season of two halves for Hynes. He was averaging 93.7 PPG up until an injury against the Panthers in round 12. He returned for three rounds in the middle of the season then was injured again only returning for the final two rounds. In those five games he averaged 56.2 PPG. Hynes’ numbers light up the captaincy matrix as a top two option every game of the first 10 rounds except for Rd 1 against the Panthers in Vegas. Here are his past three season averages against opponents after that… Cowboys (114PPG), Rabbitohs (85.3PPG), Bulldogs (85.2PPG), Raiders (100.6 PPG), Sea Eagles (92.2PPG), Knights (70PPG), Tigers (92.3PPG), Eels (101PPG), Sea Eagles (92.2PPG). I’ll trust those numbers and disregard the scores around his injuries last season.

Verdict: Proven gun at a big discount. Buy.

Nicho Hynes is cheap and has a great draw. Picture: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

15 Herbie Farnworth, $728,300

First bye: Rd 13

Captaincy prospects: Farnworth switched from Broncos to Dolphins and saw a massive increase in his SuperCoach scoring going from 62PPG to 74.4PPG. That came with him scoring only eight tries down from 13 in 2023. The main improvements actually came from a spike in offloads and tackle busts. If he can maintain that workrate and score a few more tries 80PPG is within reach. Farnworth pops on the captaincy radar for the fixture against the Broncos where he scored 176 in the ultimate revenge game in 2024.

Verdict: If you’re loading CTW his numbers stack up. But there are cheaper options.

16 Isaah Yeo, $727,100

First bye: Rd 11

Captaincy prospects: Yeo had a career high 74.3PPG in 2024 and scored the most points of any 2RF. His number of hitups was up and so was his creativity with six try assists and seven try contributions. He cracked two hundreds in 2024 but isn’t known for massive upside and didn’t come up in the captaincy matrix.

Verdict: A perfect safe and steady choice if that’s how you play.

17 Eliesa Katoa, $717,300

First bye: Rd 2

Captaincy prospects: Katoa scored 12 tries in 2024 in his lethal combination with Jahrome Hughes. That try scoring strike rate is the only question for me. But he certainly has the skill set to score tries with his power, gap running and can bring down a high ball. Given Katoa only really emerged as a top tier player in 2024 the historical data doesn’t put him on the radar for captaincy. Speaking from experience though he’s a handy VC option – I landed his 110 against the Broncos last year.

Verdict: Avoid for now.

Most points in SuperCoach last season.

18 Keano Kini, $707,900

First bye: Rd 1

Captaincy prospects: Kini made the Titans fullback position his own in 2024 with a scintillating run of form which began with 132 points against the Broncos in Rd 12, followed by 112 against the Tigers, 153 against the Warriors and then 124 again on the Broncos. He had three scores under 40 to start the season as he was finding his feet in first grade. With only half a season of data to go on it’s hard to trust him ahead of more seasoned options at fullback. But I expect he’ll be a very popular pickup come closer to Origin.

Verdict: Avoid for now.

19 Addin Fonua-Blake, $706,500

First bye: Rd 13

Captaincy prospects: The top prop of 2024 had four hundreds and scored eight tries at the Warriors. I’m wary of forwards with high try rates but Fonua-Blake has put up eight tries two years in a row now and he moves to a Sharks team that put Tom Hazleton over for seven tries in 2024. Still I’d rather look for value elsewhere and time picking him up to when he’s closer to $600k.

Verdict: Avoid for now

20 Jacob Kiraz, $702,800

First bye: Rd 6

Captaincy prospects: The Bulldogs back played every game of 2024 and had seven hundreds along the way as he improved his average from 59.3 PPG to 71.8 PPG. His mix of workrate, offloads and tackle busts make him a SuperCoach weapon and he only scored 11 tries so there is definite room for improvement on the attacking front. Kiraz pings on the captaincy radar for his Suncorp Stadium fixtures where he averages 76.8 PPG in Rds 8 and 9.

Verdict: Buy

21 Dom Young, $701,200

First bye: Rd 10

Captaincy prospects: Young was electric on the right edge for the Roosters in 2024 running in 19 tries in 19 games at 71.6PPG. If you remove that infamous -15 send-off game against the Bulldogs and another injury affected outing it was 79.2 in 17 games. A captaincy consideration whenever the Roosters play at Allianz Stadium where he averages 91.7 PPG and had scores of 150, 160, 124, and 128.

Verdict: Avoid. See how the Roosters click with new combinations inside him.

22 Jayden Campbell, $700,200

First bye: Rd 1

Captaincy prospects: With Keano Kini claiming the Titans fullback position in 2024, Campbell returned from injury in the halves in round 14 and exploded with an average of 78.4PPG. Campbell also picked up the goalkicking duties and slotted 11 goals in his 170 haul against the Warriors, one of three hundreds for the season. This was Campbell’s first consistent run in the position and he excelled but still it’s only half a season of data. He doesn’t pop up on the captaincy radar at all.

Verdict: Avoid.

23 Dane Gagai, $694,600

First bye: Rd 4

Captaincy prospects: Has not posted double digit tries for the season since 2021 but maintains a 70+ average with his sheer amount of runs and tackle breaks. That lack of tries is probably the reason he stays under the radar, guaranteed come midseason he’ll be hovering near the top of the CTW charts. He pops on the captaincy matrix in Rd 3 against the Titans and again in Rd 9 against the Rabbitohs where he scored 137 last season.

Verdict: Avoid, Ponga is the Knights priority. But keep him on your radar after Rd 5.

24 Harry Grant, $691,600

First bye: Rd 2

Captaincy prospects: Grant is coming off his worst SuperCoach average in five years as an NRL regular at 70.7 PPG. That’s not all that far from his best – 77.6 PPG in 2022, just ridiculously consistent from the top hooker. He had four hundreds in 2024, no other player in the position had more than two. Grant ticks all the boxes for captaincy in Rd 1 against the Eels with a career average of 86.6PPG, three season average of 101.4 PPG and a 75.9 PPG average at AAMI Park. In Rd 4 he has a 105.3 PPG average against the Dragons.

Only problem is there is a bye in Rd 2 and Panthers match Rd 3. It wouldn’t surprise me if Grant is leading the scoring even with the bye early.

Verdict: Buy as long as he’s your only Storm option and you can weather the round 2 bye.

25 Brian To’o, $688,000

First bye: Rd 11

Captaincy prospects: To’o has averaged 70.3 and 70.6 the past two seasons. A huge workrate and on the end of one of the best attacks always makes him a good pick. He only scored 12 tries in his 21 games last season compared to 17 from 20 in 2023, so there’s room for improvement in attack. He doesn’t average over 60 against his first four opponents but then hits a few of his career favourites – 79.7PPG v Cowboys in Round 5; 92.1PPG v Sea Eagles in Round 8; 75.5PPG v Broncos in Round 9; then the Cowboys again in Round 10.

Verdict: Buy

Originally published as NRL SuperCoach guns rated: The expensive players set to fire and fizzle early