KFC SuperCoach NRL: Rob Sutherland’s (final) 2023 team
Hubris has come back to bite me. After boldly declaring that no further changes were required injury to a key star has forced a couple of last-minute edits to the Belalie Beasts.
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I said I would not be making any changes to my team after I published this story last week … then Nicho Hynes went and hurt his calf.
And TLT happened.
As a result I’ve made some tweaks.
I’ve had to part with Mr Hynes, I’ve grabbed a rookie five-eigth and spread some of the sweet sweet cash created around strengthening my FRF and 2RF reserves.
So I’m done now. No more changes.
Promise.
HOOKER
Harry Grant HOK ($816,500)/Brandon Smith HOK ($478,200)
Changes: The injury to Nicho Hynes has me making a pivot here. It’s farewell (for now) Nicho and hello Harry. The decision really came down to Grant or Sam Williams and Grant’s base stat reliability and absence of early byes swung the decision his way. Sure, fellow elite hookers Damien Cook and Reece Robson hold appeal at lower ownership levels, but Grant has the highest ceiling. Will he be better when Ryan Papenhuyzen returns? Yes. Can he still average 70PPG in the absence of Melbourne’s mightiest mullets? Yes too, which is why he’s in the squad.
Team analysis:
See above for Harry. After being pushed out of his preferred role as hooker to play lock/roving middle at the Storm in 2022, Brandon Smith is now at the Roosters and will be given all the minutes at No. 9 that he can handle. In the second trial of the season Smith ran for 83 metres (8 runs), made 26 tackles and had a try and linebreak assist. Priced at just $478K I rate Smith one of the bargains of the season and think he’s a must have.
FRONT ROWERS
Reuben Cotter FRF ($623,400)/Christian Welch FRF ($464,000)/Stefano Utoikamanu FRF ($319,200)/Franklin Pele FRF ($216,100)
Changes: Welcome back Christian Welch! You’ve been in and out of my team like a yoyo but it feels better having you at FRF 2 and big Stef at 3. Also welcome Franklin Pele, the injuries to Luke Thompson, Tevita Pangai Jr and Chris Patolo mean there are middle minutes on offer at the Dogs and Pele looks like he’ll be a beneficiary of that. At near bottom dollar Pele won’t need too many minutes to start making money. Farewell Davvy Moale, no doubt a star of the future but Pele’s price/opportunity knocked you out.
Team analysis:
Last season was a big one for Cotter with a move into the front row seeing him make both his Origin and Kangaroos debut. Unfortunately for Cotter he tore his hamstring in a warm-up run ahead of Origin II and missed seven games through the late-to-middle part of the season. Prior to that injury Cotter was averaging 64.6PPG of which 57 came in base stats. A workhorse with upside is exactly what I want to anchor my front row and that’s Cotter. The Cowboys rolled out a very round one team for the final trial and Cotter excelled making sixteen runs and 25 tackles. In the regular season I expect you can add 10 to that tackle count every game while the run numbers will stay just as high.
Welch played just one game in 2022 due to an Achilles injury and as a result starts 2023 at a discount. One of the premier props in the game the Storm star will get as many minutes as he can handle this year as the leader of his pack. With a good workrate and excellent offload game my team just looks better with him in it.
I was originally cautious of trusting big Stefano Utoikamanu as my starting FRF2 but those fears were put to bed by his performance in the second pre-season game. It was about a million degrees celsius out at Belmore on Sunday and all the forwards were struggling but Stefano still made 10 runs, got away an offload and made 23 tackles. With the addition Welch I feel even better being able to have he and Stefano rotate through the FRF2/3 slots. Injury restricted Utoikamanu to just nine games and 33 MPG last year but you only need to look at his 2021 output (21 games averaging 52PPG) to see his true ability. See above for Pele.
SECOND ROWERS
Cameron Murray 2RF ($749,200)/David Fifita 2RF ($689,800)/J’maine Hopgood 2RF ($298,800)/Egan Butcher 2RF ($482,100)/Trent Loiero 2RF ($365,000)/Jackson Ford 2RF ($281,200)/Sean Keppie FRF/2RF ($274,800)
Changes: The injury to Josh Schuster has him out of my team. He misses round one and then the Sea Eagles have a bye round two so at best he won’t play until round three. His price won’t move for three rounds so I see him as a perfect downgrade option if and when he does play. In Schuster’s place I have ‘upgraded’ to mid-ranger Egan Butcher. There is a slot open on the edge at the Roosters while Angus Crichton deals with his mental health issues. Butcher looks set to play big minutes there and he has the workrate required to benefit - quickly. Trent Loiero may lack some of the attacking flash of his fellow Storm edge Eliesa Katoa, but he has a good workrate and these are interesting stats. From five games of 50 mins plus in 2021/22 Loiero’s BPPM (0.57) is the same as Fermor and Olakautau, his PPM 0.78 is the same as Frizell, Nikora and Barnett. Worth a chance I reckon.
Team analysis:
Speaking of workhorses with upside hello Cameron Murray. In 2022 Murray averaged better than 50PPG in pure base, to that he added 9PPG in offloads and tackle busts. That’s 60PPG before we add attacking stats, and Murray gets plenty of those. Sure $750K is a lot to pay but look at Murray’s history – his past four season averages have been 69PPG, 68PPG, 70PPG and 71PPG. That’s some set and forget production right there. With Murray I am pairing another premium 2RF, one who is in many ways a polar opposite of the reliable Rabbitoh. David Fifita, is very SuperCoach sexy, he’s also very SuperCoach infuriating. Capable of scoring 40+ points in a single play and then no more points in a half Fifita is no easy ride but the highs are worth the frustration. In the final trial of the season Fifita ran for 150+ metres, set up a couple of tries and made 20+ tackles which was enough to score 80 points. He can do that every week if he puts his mind to it. With those two premiums I am planning to pair at least one of J’maine Hopgood and/or Butcher in my scoring 17. Hopgood has hit the ground running at the Eels looking at home in the lock position and getting through a mountain of work both with the ball and without – at this rate he’s a legit starter not just at the start of the year but at least till the Origin period. See above for my thoughts on Katoa. I try not to be too ‘trial triggered’ but it is hard to ignore what Jackson Ford showed in the final pre-season challenge match. Ford started on an edge and his 30+ tackles and 85 metres running (43 of which came after contact) suggest he just might hold on to that starting role.
HALFBACKS
Nathan Cleary HFB ($841,000)/Tanah Boyd HOK/HFB ($384,600)
Changes: Goodbye Nicho (for now). As discussed above, I don’t want to start the season with $900K of my cap injured. So I’m moving Hynes out, Boyd down to halfback and Harry Grant in at hooker.
Team analysis:
I won’t lie, I have some worries about Cleary. Firstly his durability is not elite. In 2019 Cleary played 21 regular season games, that dropped to 18 in 2020, 16 in 2021 and 14 in 2022. Secondly, how much will the departure of Api Koroisau – and his elite service out of dummy half – hurt Cleary? The first worries me more than the latter to be honest as Cleary went just fine early in 2021 when Api was missing for a big chunk of games but the superb history of high scores has me willing to take a chance and start the season with the Penrith star. Why? Because he averaged 83PPG in 2020, 108PPG in 2021 and 80PPG in 2022! That sort of return is worth some risk Tanah Boyd is partnering his old Keebra Park High teammate David Fifita on the right edge of the Titans. Boyd may not have been awarded huge SuperCoach points in the final trial of the season (he was assessed as having scored 41 points) but I liked what I saw. Plenty of runs (nine for 90 metres) solid in defence (12 tackles with just one miss) and the Titans piled on plenty of points (which saw Boyd get 7, though kick only 4, conversion attempts). There’s plenty of potential here and as mentioned above his handy DPP means should anything happen to either of my premium halfbacks then on top of the HFB options I also have premium hookers like Harry Grant or Damien Cook in play as replacements.
FIVE-EIGHTH
Adam Doueihi 5/8 ($624,600)/Isaiya Katoa HFB|5/8 ($216,100)
Changes: Bit of a bummer here, farewell Cody Walker, welcome Isaiya Katoa. Walker has been such a reliable 5/8 for so long that I’m not thrilled with this move. However, once it became clear that Katoa had usurped Milford to nab the starting five-eighth role at the Dolphins I could not resist the upside. Yes Katoa is young, yes he is yet to play in the NRL (despite having already played three Tests for Tonga) and yes his selection may just be Wayne Bennett using a one game snub to spark Anthony Milford. BUT I’m ignoring all that. Katoa is a sublime talent. He’s also a big bodied half who does plenty of work in defence. And he’s $216K – if he can score 20 odd points in base and grab the occasional try assist/linebreak assist he’ll increase in price in no time. Annnnnd if it all turns to poo then I can always trade Josh Schuster into the position for a mere $30K extra.
Team analysis:
After some heavy recruiting the Wests Tigers pack of 2023 will be far superior to the pack Adam Doueihi played behind in 2022 and I expect that to be beneficial for his SC output.
Doueihi’s 2022 did not begin until round 15 due to injury and he did not play in his preferred five-eighth position until round 18. In the eight games where he did play five-eighth, Doueihi averaged a very respectable 72PPG though his season average, and thus 2023 starting price, was considerably lower at 59PPG due to his first three games (two reduced minutes off the bench and one at centre). Doueihi looked the goods in the final trial of the pre-season leading the Wests Tigers in an absolute romp over the Raiders. See above for Katoa.
WINGS/CENTRES
Valentine Holmes CTW ($724,600)/Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad CTW/FLB ($327,100)/Sunia Turuva FLB/CTW ($275,000)/braden Wiliame 2RF/CTW ($234,800)/Paul Alamoti CTW ($200,800)/Alofiana Khan-Pereira CTW ($200,800)/William Warbrick ($200,800)
Changes: Just one change here. Reimis Smith out for Braden Wiliame. I’m not thrilled with this, I needed the cash to fund Egan Butcher. I also don’t like having two Warriors backs in my team but they don’t have a bye till late in the season. With luck Wiliame jags a try or two and I can ship him off at around $350K before the bye.
Team analysis:
The Cowboys have a sweet draw to start the year, and Holmes should be in the top two or three at his position after the first two months of the season. Holmes may not be the absolute base stat beast that Brian To’o is – but he doesn’t need to be because he’s a great goalkicker on a team that scores plenty of points. May is out for the season and Turuva is the man set to replace him. If it were on the left edge then I’d consider Turuva a weekly play, but even on the right there will be enough opportunity to make money – fast. Lock him in. Warbrick has been a beast in the pre-season while Sloan has … not. The Dragons say they’ll stick by Sloan but any player who is so worried about his security that he is reduced to tears after putting in a stinker in a trial is a worry for me. Alamoti looked like he had been in first grade for a couple of seasons in the pre-season games he’s a lock. Khan-Pereira has some job security concerns but he also scored six tries in two games in the pre-season. I’ll take the chance – and even play him against the Tigers in my scoring 17. See above for Talau.
FULLBACK
James Tedesco FLB ($836,300)/ Tom Trbojevic FLB ($577,700)
Changes: None!
Team analysis:
The great man James Tedesco’sworst average in the past five years is 74PPG. His worst season total is 1618. For reference, Latrell Mitchell has not cracked the 1600 point barrier once in his career, neither has Ryan Papenhuyzen and Tom Trbojevic has only done it twice. Those comparisons may not seem fair in some regards. Mitchell switched from centre to fullback in 2020 while Papenhuyzen and Trbojevic have had plenty of injuries to deal with. But the point remains, Tedesco not only pumps out a top-five position average year in year out, he is also tremendously durable rarely missing a game for his club despite his Origin responsibilities.
The word is that Tom Trbojevic is fully fit and ready to go in round one which is fortunate since he’s been named to play. At that price, and with his pedigree then if that is the case you really don’t have an option of starting without him.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach NRL: Rob Sutherland’s (final) 2023 team
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