KFC SuperCoach NRL position breakdown: We rate the superstar stable of fullbacks
The fullback position is stacked with current and future KFC SuperCoach NRL guns and picking the right players here will be crucial. Rob Sutherland rates the contenders.
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With just two selections at this position and the plethora of superb players available I think it is likely most teams will be taking quality players with both picks.
My analysis reflects this and does not cover bargain bin picks nor the likes of Anthony Milford (5/8) or Jamayne Isaako (CTW) who should be considered at their alternate positions and have been covered in earlier articles.
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If you have a sneaky POD, think we got our analysis wrong – or much more rarely – right, then let us know in the comments below and let the SuperCoach banter begin.
* Please note that I have not considered the merits of any cheapies (under $300K) in this article as those are covered in our Cheapie Bible here.
PREMIUM $550K+
James Tedesco ($781,500), Avg: 84.1
The Sydney Roosters superstar had a phenomenal year in 2019 averaging 84PPG, busting out five triple figure scores (and three 90s) and averaging a lazy 105PPG over the final eight games of the regular season. Teddy’s year was so good in fact that my only concern heading into 2020 is that some level of regression looks assured, well that and he’s so freaking expensive. Tedesco also has a strong history of finishing far better than he starts. Over the past five seasons he averaged 66PPG in the first 10 rounds and 84PPG in the last eight rounds. I’m not saying 66PPG is bad, but it’s not good when you are paying a price set at 84PPG (for reference a player who averaged 66PPG would cost $615K in 2020 a $170K discount on Tedesco’s starting price).
Tom Trbojevic ($714,800), Avg: 76.9
Injuries limited Tom Trbojevic to just 12 games in 2019 (11 to be honest as he played just nine minutes in round 24 before tearing a pectoral muscle) and yet he still managed to record triple figure scores four times. ‘Turbo’ has proved durable in the past playing 23, 22 and 22 games in 2016-2018, so hopefully 2019 is not a harbinger of the future for the Manly star. Expected to return to full contact training at the start of the year, a fully fit Trbojevic at a $67K discount to Tedesco is awfully tempting.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck ($659,800), AVG: 71
In 2019 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck became the true focal point for the Warriors’ attack and his SuperCoach scores soared as a result. RTS increased his output across every single stat category in the game when compared to 2018, and while he did not deliver the same volume of huge scores (‘just’ two triple figure scores) he exceeded 80 points nine times and 60 points in 70% of games played. Exactly $55K cheaper than Turbo and over $120K cheaper than Tedesco you can certainly make the case for picking Tuivasa-Sheck as your lead fullback. However, be warned; coach Stephen Kearney has flagged his intention to change how much work Tuivasa-Sheck does a move which would be detrimental to his KFC SuperCoach NRL scoring.
Latrell Mitchell ($653,100), Avg: 70.3
Available at fullback for the first time Latrell Mitchell comes with loads of risk but also loads of upside. Unquestionably the best centre in SuperCoach in 2019, will Mitchell go even better at fullback (assuming he manages to get a deal that sees him leave the Roosters and play at fullback in 2020) or will he fail to fire at the new position? Should Latrell be physically able to play fullback, the significant increase in points earned via runs and concomitant tackle busts, linebreaks could see a 15-20PPG increase to his average score. The potential here is huge, but the risk is pretty high too.
Kalyn Ponga ($634,300), Avg: 68.3
After playing Kalyn Ponga at five-eighth for the first three rounds of 2019 the Knights saw the light and moved him back to fullback, sparking an eight-game run of super scores – 88, 81, 83, 64, 90, 90, 118 and 112. That last score was achieved in just 59 minutes after Ponga’s game was cut short sue to concussion. The headache lingered long after, in a SuperCoach sense at least, as while Ponga had some good games in the back-half of the season (including 105 in round 22 against the Cowboys) he never really regained his sizzle, averaging 57PPG over his final nine games of the season. A significant contribution to Ponga’s decline was the loss of goalkicking duties with Mason Lino taking over the tee over the back end of the year. No doubt fatigue played a role in Ponga’s scoring slowdown last year and he will likely start strong in 2020. But what any prospective owners really needs to watch is whether Mason Lino makes the squad, because if he does, Ponga’s value takes a big hit.
Valentine Holmes ($563,700), Avg: NA
If Latrell Mitchell’s shift to fullback comes with ‘loads of risk’ than picking a guy who is coming back to the game after a year in the USA playing in the NFL is positively perilous. That said, a look through Holmes’ stats when playing fullback in 2018 give you an indication of the reward that is on offer. Holmes started at fullback for the Sharks 15 times in 2018 averaging 78.7. If he were to return to close to that sort of form, Holmes’ price would quickly soar to $700K+. One last point here and it’s that Holmes big run of scores was boosted by the fact that he took over the goalkicking duties at the Sharks for the final five games of the regular season and slotted 21 of 28 attempts over that span. There is competition for the goalkicking role a the Cowboys, if Holmes wins the role his stocks are set to soar.
MID-PRICERS $550K-$400K
Clint Gutherson ($532,400) Avg: 57.29/Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad ($529,700), Avg: 57
The real SuperCoach value in both these players in 2019 was that they were fullbacks available to be selected at CTW. Both have lost their dual-position eligibility in 2020 and with that become significantly less desirable. Not undesirable, I think it’s entirely possible both lift their averages a few points and finish in the low 60s in 2020, but with just two spots available and those above them here proven to have much higher ceilings – and the guy below – it’s hard to make a case for ‘King Gutho’ or ‘CNK’ to start the season.
Ryan Papenhuyzen ($508,200), Avg: 54.7
The Storm have signalled that Ryan Papenhuyzen’s peripatetic days are over and that in 2020 the livewire speedster will have a permanent home as Melbourne’s starting fullback. And about time too says many a SuperCoach! In 2019, Papenhuyzen started five games at fullback for scores of 87, 71, 123, 98 and 85 and an average of 92.8. Now, even the most optimistic owner is not going to expect that level of output to continue, but even a 30% decline would still result in a 60+ average over the season and at just a tick over $500K I’m all in.
BARGAIN BIN $400K-$300K
None. Dual-position types AJ Brimson (5/8), Zac Lomax (CTW) and Adam Doueihi (CTW) have cheapie appeal but all are only realistic options in their other position due to the quality of the players listed above.
PPG: Points Per Game
MPG: Minutes Per Game
PPM: Points Per Minute – a useful indication of workrate particularly relevant to forwards (as most backs play the full 80 minutes) as a player with a good PPM who is set to see an increase in MPG could see a big increase in PPG.
Base Points: Base points are those earned in hit-ups plus tackles (some statisticians subtract points lost for missed tackles when calculating this). They are valued by SuperCoaches as it is considered a reliable guide to future output unlike attacking stats which except for the truly exceptional are far less reliable.
BPPM: Base Points Per Minute
POD: Point Of Difference
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach NRL position breakdown: We rate the superstar stable of fullbacks