Matthew Johns: Melbourne’s qualifying final against Manly is a sudden-death clash in disguise

While the loser of the Melbourne-Manly game will get a second chance, make no mistake, their qualifying final is a sudden-death clash in disguise, MATTHEW JOHNS writes.

The loser of Friday night’s NRL qualifying final between Melbourne and Manly won’t be able to rebound and win this year’s premiership.

Winning next week’s elimination final won’t be the major issue, it’s the highly probable fact that they will need to defeat a freshened Penrith the week after to make the grand final.

A South Sydney upset over the Panthers of course changes everything, but a big upset it would most certainly be.

So while the Storm-Sea Eagles clash isn’t sudden death, you can guarantee they’ll compete like it is.

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The loser of the Sea Eagles-Storm clash faces a huge task to go on and make the grand final. Picture: AAP Image/Brendon Thorne

STOP TOM

Melbourne being able to curb the impact of Tom Trbojevic defines this final.

That symbolises the standing Tom has developed in the game.

Think about all the champion players that exist in this contest, one of which is rugby league’s best big-game performer, Cameron Munster, yet simply stopping Trbojevic is by far the prominent deciding factor.

If there’s any team who can do it, it’s Melbourne.

In 2017, Jason Taumalolo was powering through every defensive line in the competition, but not the Storm. They went back to an age-old tactic of first marker chopping Taumalolo’s legs from side on, and on grand final night the yardage phenomenon couldn’t create momentum for his playmakers.

Trbojevic’s threat is right across the field, however primarily it’s through the middle.

A legs tackle is difficult because of his stride length.

I expect Melbourne to squeeze inward and tighten the defensive space whenever Trbojevic receives the ball at first receiver and starts to run at the line.

It leaves you a little vulnerable to the long pass but that’s far less of a threat than holding formation and giving him an opportunity to attack someone one-on-one.

Cooper Cronk told me he would look to stack an extra defender to the side of the field Trbojevic positions himself, allowing a Manly playmaker on the other side of the ruck a numbers advantage.

Again a risk, but less of a risk than giving him the defensive formation he wants.

The Storm will unleash hooker Harry Grant on the Sea Eagles around the 25th-minute mark. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images

25TH-MINUTE GEAR CHANGE

The game changes in the 15 minutes heading into halftime and it could be a period which gives a team a winning dominance.

For the Storm, Harry Grant comes onto the field, which immediately increases the tempo by making Brandon Smith a running forward and thus centralising their attack, which in turn increases the threat of fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen.

Manly, meanwhile, lighten their pack, bringing Dylan Walker onto the field and into the middle which, as in Melbourne’s case, will create a greater threat in centre field and increase Trbojevic’s threat.

The middle-field defenders on both sides will be put under huge strain. If one team dominates possession in this period, they could easily accumulate points.

KICK LONG, CHASE HARD

Manly’s kick-early tactic in belting Parramatta 56-10 in Round 22 worked a treat. Look for them to do it again here.

Melbourne are the most disciplined defensive team in the game, so with Manly coming out of trouble, don’t expect them to just keep running into brick walls.

Anytime Manly get momentum and a quick play-the-ball after tackle three, watch them kick long and chase fast, applying pressure to the Storm with an aggressive rushing defence.

It will be interesting to see if Melbourne simply cop their bruises and continue to toil through centrefield or push the ball, trying to break the shackles.

Coming off an injury, or a hangover, Cameron Munster is a dangerous proposition in big games. Picture: NRL Images

LEFT SIDE/LEFT SIDE

Both sides have tremendous left-side threat.

I’ve spoken previously about the vision and subtle skill of Manly’s Josh Schuster, he’s their 2021 version of premiership-winning back-rower Glenn Stewart.

Schuster provides so much variation and lightens the creative load off Kieran Foran.

Meanwhile, on Melbourne’s left, it’s Cameron Munster. He comes into this match under an injury cloud but ignore that, Munster won the 2020 Origin man of the series not only injured, but hungover as well.

While Manly’s left side is choreographed, Munster’s left attack operates best in chaos.

In fact, the more pre-organised they are, the less effective it is.

When Munster mainly passes the attack is mainly sideways.

When he runs things happen.

WHO WINS?

By far the toughest pick of week one.

I still think Melbourne are yet to capture their best form during the last two months, but finally they have settled on key positions and their pack of forwards are back to full strength.

But back to my original point, if they can’t curb Tom Trbojevic, Manly win.

You can’t totally nullify Tom but I think the Storm will be able to reduce his impact enough.

Melbourne to win by four on the back of discipline and their many options in attack.

Originally published as Matthew Johns: Melbourne’s qualifying final against Manly is a sudden-death clash in disguise