Matthew Johns’ 10 talking points from the first six rounds of the NRL season

The Penrith Panthers did one of the bravest things in rugby league, they broke a winning system, but what they built has made them stronger, writes MATTY JOHNS.

Johns pre-season picks sub image

“Wake me up after six rounds and I’ll give you my proper opinion.”

This is my standard response when people ask for my season projections in February.

After six rounds the picture is clearer, every possible improver has played a possible contender. Each team has enjoyed a win, well almost, and every team a loss. We’ve seen strengths, flaws, surprises and confirmations.

Here’s my 10-point take after round 6.

THREE-PEAT ON COURSE

Pre-season, I disagreed with Penrith as competition favourites, and that opinion was only strengthened by the football they served up in the opening rounds.

But watching their last two performances, not only do I agree with their favouritism, but I think $3.75 is generous.

Watching back several games this week, it’s clear their substandard, early form was a result of bedding down a new style in attack.

In what looked too sideways and complicated, now looks deadly and inch perfect.

To stay at the top, you need to take what got you there, break it and rebuild.

It takes a lot of guts to do it, and a lot of intelligence to make it work.

The Panthers’ irresistible recent form is ominous for the rest of the competition. Picture: Brett Hemmings/Getty Images

SHARK WARNING

Cronulla’s slow start has been largely ignored. All eyes have been trained on the Tigers.

The Sharks are in the midst of an identity crisis. This Cronulla team enjoyed success last year, with a focus on ball retention and high-energy defence. This season, I’m seeing a team who look to have a, “You score 30, we’ll score 32” attitude.

Time to put the overalls back on, boys.

BRONCOS’ BIG TESTS AWAIT

The Broncos deserve their spot at the top, they’ve been fabulous.

But here’s the first test. I’ve stated that I’ll believe Brisbane can win the comp when they experience a few losses in a row, and come through the other side.

In recent seasons, no team has capitulated so spectacularly, like the Broncs. After their shock loss to Canberra, I’m keen to see what their football looks like on Friday night.

Will the Broncos capitulate again? Picture: Getty Images

THE GAME’S IN A SWEET SPOT

This time last year the pubs and clubs were full of people telling me that all the rule changes had ruined the game.

The main criticism was that it had evolved into touch football, the game had lost its balance, all the bias was with the attack.

I won’t dismiss that entirely. There certainly was an adjustment period, but the game has now settled into a sweet spot.

I’ve never seen the game better, the balance of attack and defence is perfect.

Shaun Johnson has the Warriors on the improve. Picture: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

CLOSEST COMP IN MEMORY?

Yes, and no.

In the last two weeks we are seeing, once again, an elite few forming, however below those, it’s a jam.

Numerous teams, like the Gold Coast, Newcastle, Canterbury and the New Zealand Warriors have improved. By how much, it’s still a little hard to say, but they look like mid-level teams.

Then there’s Parramatta, North Queensland and Cronulla, who aren’t performing anywhere near expectations.

In the pre-season, I believed the eight to be pretty straight forward — Roosters, Panthers, Storm, Rabbitohs, Cowboys, Sharks, Sea Eagles and Eels.

I have doubts about most of those teams. Plenty of teams have improved, while a number have taken a step backward. Come September, the gap between fifth and 15th won’t be much.

The Dolphins and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow have been a revelation.

BENNETT THE GREATEST

The question gets asked, “Who’s the greatest coach? Bennett? Bellamy? Or Big Jack?”

With what Wayne’s done with the Dolphins, I think we can lock him in.

There was a time when the belief was Wayne’s success had to be taken in context, because of the superstar teams with whom he won comps.

But throughout his career, he’s been masterful at adjusting tactically, to who’s in the jerseys.

His ‘92/’93 Broncos were all razzamatazz, but his 2000/2006 teams were hard-nosed and gritty, as were his 2010 Dragons.

Tactically, what he has the Dolphins doing, is his finest art work. Watching the way the Dolphins grind opponents down, bit by bit by bit, is genius.

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YOUNG TEAM, OLD TALE

Most had the Cowboys set for a serious tilt at the title. Their opening six weeks has been awful.

Last year, this young team played with a unique attacking style, they defended with equal enthusiasm, and they were rock-hard fit.

This year, they have little respect for possession, they squander opportunity, like a new one will present itself any minute, and they defend with the same enthusiasm as I have when I do the dishes.

2022 was a huge year, for both team and individuals. It brought profile, praise and expectation. For a young team, that’s a tricky mix.

Hey fellas, get in line with the Sharks and buy some overalls.

The Cowboys have to roll up their sleeves. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

FULFILLING PROPHECY

The general consensus was, that Parramatta would slide this season, and their early form suggests that’s spot on.

It was Mitchell Moses’ kicking performance that saved them against the Tigers.

Their draw to start the season wasn’t kind, but a few performances have me suspecting they may finish outside the eight.

The key man for a Parramatta resurgence is Dylan Brown. At the moment, he’s playing within himself. He needs to use his talent and physical presence to impact games, lift teammates, change the course of matches.

The Eels have come out publicly and said they want to go out and buy a game-breaker. They have a Class 1 game-breaker, his name is Dylan Brown.

The Eels need more from Dylan Brown. Picture: Getty Images

SLOW OUT OF THE GATES

The Roosters are off to a slowish start again. In a lot of ways they attack their way into trouble, there are so many quality ball players that their attack has a sideways tendency. Doing less will help. Slow starting is dangerous because you enter mid-season having pressure to win, and very often, by the time you reach the finals, you’ve spent your pennies.

BACK TO THE GRIND

The Storm adjust very well, to suit their roster. In the last 20 years they’ve gone from playing tight, to expansive, to flamboyant, and now they return to the tight style again. They’re back in the grind, denying opponents cheap possession, and targeting their strengths. Melbourne are very difficult to beat when they’re in this mode, because they tend to dictate the style of the contest.

Originally published as Matthew Johns’ 10 talking points from the first six rounds of the NRL season