NRL Premiers Zone: Fox Sports Lab formula predicts only five teams can win premiership
We’ve put the 2023 numbers into the formula that has predicted 10 of the last 11 NRL premiers, and can reveal that only five teams, including one outside the top four, can win the grand final.
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You’ve heard of a mathematical chance of making the finals, but how about a mathematical chance of winning the premiership?
The Premiers Zone, created by Fox Sports Lab, has created a formula which has accurately predicted 10 of the past 11 NRL premiers based on their attacking and defensive records throughout the season.
With three rounds to go just five teams can win it, including one outside the top four, based on how many points they’re scoring and leaking each week.
The Zone is defined by history. It’s the regular season averages for points scored and conceded for every premiership winning team. Fox Sports Lab takes the mean of those values and goes one standard deviation either side to find the normal numbers for an NRL premiership winning side.
This season the limit is a maximum of 18.6 points conceded per game and a minimum of 22.7 points scored.
Currently just three teams, the Warriors, Panthers and Brisbane sit in that sweet spot.
North Queensland in 2015 is the only team since Manly in 2011 to win the NRL title from outside the limits (their defence was just shy of the boundary, leaking 18.9 points per game).
But we’ve crunched the numbers across the teams in contention to predict where they’ll end up and if they have a shot at the title.
PANTHERS
Points scored:25.9
Points conceded: 12.1
Currently: In the zone
To maintain: Score two points and concede less than 192
Prediction: Premiership material
It’s a no-brainer that the Panthers are on track again to win their third-straight premiership. Defensively this is the best season they’ve had since 2021 (11.9 points conceded per game), which was the best premiership-winning defence for any team since St George in 2010 (they conceded just 12.5 points per game).
BRONCOS
Scored: 26.7
Conceded: 17
Currently: In the zone
To maintain: Have already scored enough points but need to concede less than 71
Prediction: Premiership material
With a bye in hand, the Broncos need only to concede less than 71 points against the Raiders and Storm to finish well within the premiership zone, but their attack is the best in the game heading into the final three rounds.
WARRIORS
Scored: 24.5
Conceded: 18.4
Currently: In the zone
To maintain: Score 30 points and concede less than 60
Prediction: Premiership material
The Warriors sit right on the zone boundary defensively and will need to concede less than 20 points per game against Manly, the Dragons and Dolphins to fit the “normal premier” mould. Based on their form they should score 30 points in three games easily.
STORM
Scored: 24.8
Conceded: 18.7
Currently: Just outside the zone
To get there: Score 25 points and concede less than 53
Prediction: Premiership material
Melbourne sit just outside the zone by the smallest of margins based on defence, but are on track to finish with the limits across the next three rounds. They face the Dragons, Titans and Broncos and need to concede less than 53 points in total.
SHARKS
Scored: 26.5
Conceded: 21.3
Currently: Outside the zone
To get there: Scored enough points but have conceded one point too many to make it
Prediction: Can’t make it
The Sharks are neck and neck with the Broncos based on attack but they’ve leaked far too many points this year to fit the bill of a typical NRL premier. The 54 points they leaked to Melbourne in round 15 was the first sign, but they’ve already conceded more than enough to doubt their premiership potential.
RAIDERS
Scored: 20.3
Conceded: 26
Currently: Too far outside the zone
To get there: Conceded 100 more points than needed, and need to score 119 points
Prediction: Can’t make it
Big losses to Penrith and Melbourne have blown out their defensive record, which sits more than 100 points outside the premiership zone already. They’re not quite scoring enough either, and would need to score around 40 points each week against the Bulldogs, Broncos and Sharks to make the zone based on attack alone.
KNIGHTS
Scored: 25.4
Conceded: 20.1
Currently: Outside the zone
To get there: Score 12 points and concede less than 23
Prediction: Won’t make it
The Knights are the only other team aside from the top four that could mathematically finish within the premiership zone, but they would need to concede less than 23 points against Rabbitohs, Sharks and Dragons to finish within the defensive limits.
RABBITOHS
Scored: 24.6
Conceded: 20.5
Currently: Outside the zone
To get there: Conceded four more points than needed, but only need to score three to meet the attack limit
Prediction: Can’t make it
Their attack is good enough, but like others their defensive record this year has taken a big hit and ruined their premiership hopes. They have a bye in round 26 but play the Knights in Newcastle and Roosters at Accor Stadium, with hope of improving their points differential at least if they can manage to stay in the top eight.
COWBOYS
Scored: 23.2
Conceded: 21.7
Currently: Outside the zone
To get there: Conceded 10 more points than needed, but need to score 57
Prediction: Can’t make it
If they can score 57 points against the Sharks, Dolphins and Panthers they can make the zone attack wise, but they’re outside of the top eight as it is and their defence has already leaked far too much in big losses to the Sharks and Wests Tigers.
EELS
Scored: 24.7
Conceded: 23.7
Currently: Too far outside the zone
To get there: Have leaked 76 points more than needed already, but only need to score two points
Prediction: Can’t make it
Like the Cowboys, their attack is on track to meet the premiership limit, it’s their horrendous defensive record that has cost them this season. They’ve already leaked 76 more points than needed to make the threshold and still need to face the Roosters and Penrith with a bye in the final round. They’re outside the top eight, but even if they make the finals their defence is not good enough.
ROOSTERS
Scored: 18.1
Conceded: 22.1
Currently: Too far outside the zone
To get there: Score 165 points, and have conceded 18 points too many
Prediction: Can’t make it
The Roosters are only a mathematical chance of making the finals at all, but if they do make it they’re not scoring enough points and have leaked far too many. To meet the attack limit at least, they need to score a combined 165 points against the Eels, Wests Tigers and Rabbitohs.
SEA EAGLES
Scored: 20.3
Conceded: 22.6
Currently: Outside the zone
To get there: Need to score 118 points and have conceded 28 more than needed defensively
Prediction: Can’t make it
Manly’s finals hopes are technically alive with games against the Warriors, Bulldogs and Wests Tigers to come. But defensively they’ve leaked too many points to meet a premiership threshold and their attack is off the pace too.
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