NRL news: Who will be the first coach to be axed in 2023?

The drums are beating for Kevin Walters after a late-season decline saw the Broncos miss the finals yet again – see what he must do to save his job.

Which NRL coach will be axed first in 2023?

There are some NRL coaches who could collect the wooden spoon in 2023 with little to no threat to their job security, and others who must make the playoffs if they are to lead their team into 2024.

And then there are those who won’t get a chance to do either, with at least one NRL coach sure to get his marching orders before the season is completed.

Brisbane Broncos

Kevin Walters (2023)

Walters enters the season coming off-contract and the drums are beating at Red Hill. No-one likes to see an NRL legend sacked by their beloved club but that is almost certainly the outcome if Walters fails to steer the Broncos to the playoffs.

‘Kevvie’ has missed the top eight in consecutive years, although he was desperately unlucky last season after Brisbane crashed from fourth to ninth in a shocking six-week collapse. This time, there are no excuses. Walters has the talent, personnel and class to get the Broncos back to finals football and if he does that, his reward will be a contract extension.

Safety rating: E

– Peter Badel

Canterbury Bulldogs

Cameron Ciraldo (2027)

Ciraldo arrives at Belmore after a deliberately patient approach towards becoming an NRL coach and it was GM of football Phil Gould who wore the rookie down to sign. Ciraldo is huge on building trust and bonds within his playing ranks, so let’s see how tight this squad becomes. Ciraldo’s first season will also be about adopting an identity for the Dogs following a five-year period of mass roster and coach changes. The appointment of club legend Andrew Ryan as a cultural driver speaks to that. Defence will be the absolute focus of every performance and key to Ciraldo’s arrival to the big stage is the fitness of his players, which is being led by former Rabbitohs and Roosters head of high performance Travis Touma.

Safety rating: A

– David Riccio

Canberra Raiders

Ricky Stuart (2025)

Ricky Stuart would be one of the more safest coaches heading into the season. Barring something catastrophic he should have the job at Canberra for as long as he wants it.

Stuart is contracted until the end of 2025, having extended his deal last July for another two seasons.

The ex-Raiders halfback has already indicated he won’t coach at another club but, at 55, he still has plenty of time to chase his second title as a coach. The Raiders have played finals in three of the past four years, including their 2019 grand final loss to the Roosters.

Stuart had a relatively slow start to his coaching stint at Canberra – making the finals just once in his first five years. But he has built a squad which he has been able to keep largely intact long-term.

He has brought Michael Maguire onto his coaching staff, which is a handy addition. Maguire and Stuart are former Raiders teammates. The former Tigers mentor is still keen on making his NRL return at some stage.

Safety rating: A

– Michael Carayannis

The Dolphins

Wayne Bennett (2025)

The greatest coach in the history of rugby league returns after a one-year break from the full-time NRL furnace.

After leading South Sydney to the 2021 grand final, Bennett has spent the past 12 months helping the Dolphins put a long-term plan together for sustained success in the NRL.

He is refreshed after moving back to his farm in rural Queensland from Sydney and will head into 2022 with a point to prove given the Dolphins have been written off by many and rated wooden spoon chances.

The only thing Bennett likes more than winning is proving people wrong and he will lead the Dolphins into their inaugural NRL season with a fire in his belly. Even if they don’t win a game and collect the wooden spoon, there is no way Bennett will be sacked, which means he could be the safest coach in the game.

Safety rating: A

– Travis Meyn

Newcastle Knights

Adam O’Brien (2024)

O’Brien, Anthony Griffin (Dragons) and Justin Holbrook (Titans) start 2023 under the most pressure. Under O’Brien, Newcastle won just six of 24 games this year to run 14th. Newcastle did win 12 from 24 matches in 2021 to reach the finals. No doubt O’Brien is a good coach after learning his craft under the very best.

But Newcastle is a fairly unforgiving rugby league region. While fans will cop one bad season, a second in as many years will put O’Brien under heavy pressure. He now has two halves to compliment one-another – there won’t be any excuses in the Hunter this season.

Safety rating: C

– Dean Ritchie

Gold Coast Titans

Justin Holbrook (2024)

Holbrook is entering the fourth and most pivotal season of his NRL coaching career.

After taking over from Garth Brennan following the wooden spoon debacle of 2019, Holbrook made an immediate impact at the Titans in 2020 as they finished ninth.

The Titans took another step forward with a finals berth in 2021, losing a week-one thriller to the Sydney Roosters, and believed they were on track for big things in 2022.

But last season’s dramatic implosion, which plummeted the Titans into wooden spoon territory late in the year before finishing 13th, thrust the spotlight on Holbrook’s future.

After dominating the Super League with St Helens, Holbrook’s win percentage in the NRL is just 36 per cent after three seasons. The Titans hierarchy is expecting a finals return in 2023 and Holbrook must deliver that to save his job given he has had four years to put his stamp on the Gold Coast. He has no excuses.

Safety rating: C

– Travis Meyn

Melbourne Storm

Crag Bellamy (2023)

This will be Craig Bellamy’s 21st season at the helm in Melbourne. The premiership-winning coach agreed to a five-year contract, until the end of 2027, that allows him to decide on a year-to-year basis whether to stay on as coach or finally move into a coaching director position with the club.

Sydney Roosters assistant Jason Ryles is in the conversation to take over from Bellamy. Ryles was part of the Storm’s coaching staff for five years before joining the Roosters in 2021. His deal with the Bondi club expires at the end of 2023, opening the door for a return to Melbourne.

Bellamy’s right hand man and tactician, Marc Brentnall is a frontrunner for the job after a 10-year apprenticeship under the master coach. Brentnall is Bellamy’s tactician and has his fingerprints over the Storm’s potent attack. Club legend Billy Slater is a viable option after kick starting his elite coaching career with a Origin series win. But general manager Frank Ponissi doesn’t believe Slater is looking to make the move into full-time NRL coaching right now.

More immediately, the upcoming season shapes as one of the more challenging years in Bellamy’s illustrious coaching career. Not only does Bellamy have to deal with losing a huge part of their forward pack but also work in the background to find his perfect replacement in a bid to ensure the club does not go backwards as it loses experience in the coaching box and on the field.

It’s hard to see any scenario that would threaten Bellamy’s place at the Storm.

Safety rating: A

– Fatima Kdouh

North Queensland

Todd Payten (2023)

Todd Payten was originally off-contract next season but is in the advanced stages of brokering a three-year extension, sweet reward for North Queensland’s outstanding revival in 2022. The Cowboys’ shock charge to the top four last season saw Payten hailed as one of the rising stars of the NRL coaching ranks. After a difficult first season replacing Paul Green in 2021, Payten kept faith in his methods and he was vindicated as Cowboys players responded to the harder mental edge he drove in defence. Cowboys hierarchy believe Payten can deliver the club’s second premiership. There is no coach safer in 2023 than Payten.

Safety rating:A

— Peter Badel

Parramatta Eels

Brad Arthur (2024)

Making the grand final has well and truly taken the heat off the coach.

This time last year Brad Arthur was under huge pressure given he’d gone eight seasons without making it past week two of the finals. And the speculation was he could be punted if the Eels didn’t at least make the preliminary final.

Of course Arthur went one better and made it all the way to the last game of the season before the Eels eventually fell to one of the champion teams of the modern era. There is certainly no shame in that.

So looking ahead, that should be more than enough to guarantee Arthur’s job until at least the end of his current contract which expires after 2024.

It’s also worth noting he is now coming into his 10th year in charge which will see him overtake Brian Smith as Parramatta’s longest serving coach, an incredible achievement when you factor in this club’s history and some of the great men who have gone before him.

Safety rating: A

– Paul Crawley

Penrith Panthers

Ivan Cleary (2027)

After leading the club to back-to-back premierships and inking a deal until the end of 2027 back in April, Cleary is currently enjoying a luxury very few NRL coaches get to experience, and that is genuine job security.

But that doesn’t mean next season won’t be without challenges for the coach.

Cleary has lost defensive assistant Cameron Ciraldo and attack mastermind Andrew Webster after the trio formed a formidable coaching brains trust over the last two seasons at the foot of the mountains.

Ciraldo, who has taken over at Canterbury, leaves Penrith with a wealth of knowledge and intimate understanding of the club’s systems, like in defence, which has been the cornerstone of Penrith’s success in recent years.

The appointment of Peter Wallace, who has that Penrith know-how, will help to soften the blow of losing Ciraldo. Though Wallace is likely to take over the side’s attack from Webster, who landed the New Zealand Warriors head coach role. Ben Gardiner is set to be handed the keys to the side’s defensive structures.

Safety rating: A+

– Fatima Kdouh

St George Illawarra Dragons

Anthony Griffin (2023)

It didn’t exactly fill anyone with confidence when skipper Ben Hunt, who is one of Anthony Griffin’s key allies, came out and said if the team doesn’t start fast in 2023 then the coach will be gone.

Add to that widespread reports that the club’s hierarchy only convinced young guns Jayden Sullivan and Tyrell Sloan to stick around on the proviso Griffin wouldn’t be in charge beyond 2023, and this has the makings of a ticking time bomb that could go off at any stage.

In Griffin’s two seasons at the Dragons they are yet to make the play-offs, although his overall win/loss record in that period isn’t exactly horrible at 41.6 per cent (20 wins/28 losses).

The bigger concern is the constant chatter about player unrest. George Burgess and Jack Gosiewski didn’t help ease the tension when they gave the coach a spray on their way out the door.

Of course it was also highlighted by the fact only three NRL players turned up at the presentation night, an absolute embarrassment for one of rugby league’s most iconic brands.

Safety rating: D

– Paul Crawley

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Jason Demetriou (2023)

Many have attempted to step into the coaching box after Wayne Bennett, and failed. Jason Demetriou smashed the curse, guiding the Rabbitohs to within one game of a grand final in his rookie season in charge. With Souths’ big three of Mitchell, Walker and Cook re-signed, Demetriou will return for his second season in charge with a settled squad full of big-name stars balanced by an emerging crew of young talent. Close to agreeing a contract extension and one of the safest coaches in the league.

Safety rating: A+

– Matt Encarnacion

Sydney Roosters

Trent Robinson (2028)

Nick Politis has said previously Trent Robinson will be coaching the Roosters for as long as he wants the job. The fact Robinson has won three premierships in his 10 seasons in charge, and has a contract in place for six more seasons, makes him as safe as money in the bank.

Though that still doesn’t excuse the fact the past two seasons have been extremely underwhelming by the Roosters’ lofty standards.

They’ve gone from winning back-to-back premierships in 2018-19 to finishing outside the top four the past two seasons. There is no denying they have had to overcome some serious injury issues in this period, and of course the forced retirements of co-captains Jake Friend and Boyd Cordner.

But they still went into 2022 with many rating them premiership favourites, and they got rolled in week one of the finals by their arch rivals the Rabbitohs. Another finish outside the top four would be hard for all involved to swallow.

Safety rating: A

– Paul Crawley

Manly Sea Eagles

Anthony Seibold (2025)

Given he has just signed, Anthony Seibold’s position is safe in terms of his immediate future but expectations will be high.

He arrives at Brookvale on a three-year deal but will be expected to secure immediate success. Those who questioned his signing will be quick to point out any early failings.

Seibold comes after a successful stint at Souths – he was 2018 Dally M coach of the year – and then a horror tenure at Brisbane, where he was sacked one-and-a-half seasons into a five-year deal.

Seibold claims to have altered some of the intense methods he employed at Brisbane.

He has already worked hard on his relationship with Manly’s three most influential players – Jake and Tom Trbojevic and skipper Daly Cherry-Evans.

Safety rating: B

– Dean Ritchie

Cronulla Sharks

Craig Fitzgibbon (2024)

Long regarded as an NRL coach-in-waiting, Craig Fitzgibbon made the jump into the furnace in 2022 and emerged with his reputation further enhanced.

A contender for Dally M coach of the year, Fitzgibbon unearthed the qualities that few knew in halfback Nicho Hynes, while at the opposite end, he was able to drag the most out of ageing veterans Andrew Fifita and Aiden Tolman.

Fitzgibbon’s second season as a head coach will be different in the fact he has set the bar of expectation much higher within the Shire.

That said, his recent off-season trip to Europe with most of the senior executives within the Sharks hierarchy suggests Cronulla are building a long-term strategy that includes the respected mentor leading the club for a number of years to come.

Safety rating: A+

– David Riccio

Wests Tigers

Tim Sheens (2024)

It’s been over a decade since Tim Sheens last coached in the NRL, but talking to the premiership winner, you wouldn’t know it. Sheens‘ knowledge, garnered over 50 years in the game, is unquestionable.

He’s signed for two seasons and for the sake of stability and the side’s rebuild, the club have no choice but to stick with Sheens for the duration.

His assistants, and club legends, Robbie Farah and Benji Marshall have dabbled in specialist coaching but are otherwise untried at the NRL level.

Despite their inexperience, Sheens must lean on them, Marshall in particular, whose time as assistant will double as an apprenticeship before he takes over for the 2025 season as head coach. Getting rid of Sheens early, will raise questions about whether Marshall has had enough on the job training to be at the helm.

The more experienced David Furner has also been added to the staff, where his know-how in both attack and defensive structures will be an invaluable resource.

Safety rating: A-

– Fatima Kdouh

New Zealand Warriors

Andrew Webster (2025)

May have arguably the lowest-profile of any coach in the league, but the Warriors are banking his history with the Auckland-based club, combined with an apprenticeship that’s included stints at the Panthers and Tigers, to finally deliver some overdue success. The Warriors have only made the finals once since Ivan Cleary – who Webster was assistant to at Penrith last season – guided them to a shock grand final in 2011. Webster was in charge of the Panthers’ juggernaut attack last year, and his philosophies just could unlock the sleeping giant across the Tasman. Signed on a three-year deal, Webster should be given at least two seasons by the Warriors owners before they consider whether they made the right choice.

Safety rating: A-

– Matt Encarnacion

Originally published as NRL news: Who will be the first coach to be axed in 2023?