NRL finals 2023: Ultimate form guide, burning questions for first week of finals
The first week of the NRL finals series is locked and loaded. Dean Ritchie has all the team news as the competition catapults towards the first weekend in October.
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The opening week of the NRL finals series is locked and loaded.
As the competition catapults towards the first weekend in October, Dean Ritchie answers the burning questions and team news facing every club.
Here’s everything you need to know about the four finals games.
FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL, SUNCORP STADIUM
Brisbane Broncos (2) v Melbourne Storm (3)
Friday, September 8, 7.50pm
CAN BRISBANE BREAK STORM HOODOO?
Melbourne’s win over Brisbane on Friday night was the Storm’s 14th successive win over the Broncos. Has it now become psychological? And, making matters even more unpalatable for Brisbane is that the Broncos haven’t beaten Melbourne at Suncorp Stadium – venue for the week one finals game - since 2009. It’s clear Suncorp doesn’t concern nor intimidate Melbourne or coach Craig Bellamy. There remains a theory in rugby league that Brisbane is a red-hot team – but they might be one year shy of winning the title.
WHERE TO PLAY RYAN PAPENHUYZEN?
Papenhuyzen was brilliant against Brisbane in his second game back in the NRL from a 13-month injury layoff. He started at fullback with regular Nick Meany being rested.
The question now is whether Papenhuyzen will start again or come off the bench. Post-game, Bellamy said Papenhuyzen would become his side’s “X-factor”, perhaps indicating a roving role from the bench. Young Sua Fa’alogo will need to be somewhere in Storm’s 17 given his dynamic NRL debut against Brisbane where he scored two tries, completed eight tackle breaks and ran for 108 metres.
TEAM NEWS
Melbourne’s contingent of rested players - 11 all-up - should be available. The key player here is Cameron Munster, who has been battling an infected knee since State of Origin. There is little doubt Munster will play but his mobility may be scrutinised. Harry Grant and Jahrome Hughes are confident of playing. Brisbane rested their stars too – including Payne Haas, Reece Walsh, Selwyn Cobbo, Billy Walters, Pat Carrigan and Ezra Mam – but all should be back for the finals.
DOGGIE’S VERDICT
Storm by 2
QUALIFYING FINAL: BLUEBET STADIUM
Penrith Panthers (1) V New Zealand Warriors (4)
Saturday, September 9, 4.05pm (EST)
DOES PENRITH HAVE THE PETROL TO WIN THREE SUCCESSIVE PREMIERSHIPS?
Yep, this is one of the all-time great club sides but they have been ‘up’ now for four years. All indications indicate Penrith remains focused but when will their hunger finally subside? Can they muster enough drive and want to win three straight? If their desire drops ever-so marginally, Penrith can be toppled. They appear comfortable and ready for the looming challenge, a big win over North Queensland over the weekend will only increase their confidence. Many will argue winning three in a row is near impossible – time will tell.
CAN THE WARRIORS WIN BIG GAMES AWAY FROM AUCKLAND?
Season 2023 has been remarkable - Andrew Webster should be Dally M coach of the year - but there are genuine doubts over whether the Warriors have the big game experience to bowl over a premiership heavyweight in Sydney. The Warriors have never won a premiership and can, as history suggests, implode under pressure. This team may be different, appearing to possess fight and resolve, but few believe they can overcome the might, structure and discipline of minor premiers Penrith and the lively atmosphere at BlueBet Stadium.
TEAM NEWS
Panthers players Scott Sorenson (leg) and Mitch Kenny (leg) will be available after missing the Cowboys games. Penrith will use Jack Cogger again in the halves with Jarome Luai (shoulder) injured. The Warriors should have just about every one of the dozen players they rested back for Dolphins game back for the finals match. Tohu Harris will return after a rest to lead the Warriors.
DOGGIE’S VERDICT
Panthers by 12
ELIMINATION FINAL: POINTSBET STADIUM
Cronulla Sharks (6) V Sydney Roosters (7)
Saturday, September 9, 7.50PM (EST)
CAN CRONULLA TOPPLE A BIG GUN?
It really is a sobering reality – Cronulla struggles against top-eight sides. At one point this season, Cronulla lost six from seven games against top eight sides, albeit the Sharks did defeat Canberra on Sunday. That record was four wins from 11 matches last season. Yet again Cronulla will contest finals footy but do they have the toughness and gumption to stand up and not be bullied by the big teams? Some say Cronulla has a soft underbelly and are too small. The challenge is there for the Sharks.
CAN THE ROOSTERS MATCH A PREMIERSHIP HEAVYWEIGHT?
The Roosters have won six from their past seven games to surge into the finals - but not one of those six victories was against a finals side. Those victories have come against Gold Coast, Manly, Wests Tigers, Dolphins, Parramatta and Souths. It’s been a thrilling and superb effort from the Roosters to win five straight and qualify for the playoffs – but has their lead-in been too soft? Still, they have momentum and will fancy their chances against Cronulla.
TEAM NEWS
Sharks forward Briton Nikora suffered a category two concussion on Sunday and will be monitored this week. Fullback Connor Tracey was replaced with 10 minutes remaining with a hamstring injury. Joey Manu is almost certain to return for the Roosters after missing last Friday night’s game through a hamstring injury. Roosters winger Daniel Tupou won’t play again this weekend after suffering a knee injury in the lead up to the Rabbitohs game.
DOGGIE’S VERDICT
Roosters by 6
ELIMINATION FINAL: McDONALD JONES STADIUM
Newcastle Knights (5) V Canberra Raiders (8)
Sunday, September 10, 4.05PM (EST),
CAN NEWCASTLE MAINTAIN THE RAGE?
The Knights have ignited this year’s run to the finals with nine straight wins, a club record. And they have achieved it in style. But how long can the streak last? Newcastle doesn’t have the glamorous roster of their rivals and many think they won’t be able to compete with the NRL big guns. Newcastle certainly have some weapons in Greg Marzhew, Dom Young and Bradman Best.
CAN CANBERRA RECTIFY DEFENSIVE DEFICIENCIES?
Canberra has the worst differential of any side in the finals (for and against of -137). The Raiders’ defence has leaked 623 points this season, easily the most of any team in the top eight. Clearly, Canberra has plenty of work to complete if they want to be a genuine contender. An 18-point loss to Cronulla on Sunday will damage confidence.
TEAM NEWS
Newcastle remains confident Jackson Hastings (ankle) and Kalyn Ponga (ACL joint) will be back this week. Dane Gagai, Tyson Frizell, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Phoenix Crossland, all rested last week, should also return. Canberra is certain to be without centre Seb Kris who was sent off for a dangerous throw on Cronulla’s Sione Katoa on Sunday.
DOGGIE’S VERDICT
Knights by 8
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