NRL 2023 run home: Every game and final ladder prediction, top eight contenders

In one of the tightest finals races in recent history, a whopping 14 teams remain in contention with just five weeks to go. We predict who will secure a top eight spot and who misses out.

Mitchell Moses, Reece Walsh and Latrell Mitchell are all key players in the run to the NRL finals.

Brisbane and Penrith are far and away the best two teams in the competition this year, but nothing below them on the ladder is assured.

With five rounds to go until the NRL finals, the race for the top eight is alive with a jam-packed ladder and chaos in some major finals contenders.

We’ve crunched the numbers and found the teams set to buckle within the next month, those with an easy draw to finish and the teams who might just sneak into the finals after a wild ride.

1. PANTHERS

Won: 14, Lost: 5, Drawn: 0, Points: 34, Points Differential: 257

Panthers’ run home

R23: Storm at Bluebet Stadium (W)

R24: Sea Eagles at 4 Pines Park (W)

R25: Titans at Cbus Super Stadium (W)

R26: Eels at BlueBet Stadium (W)

R27: Cowboys at BlueBet Stadium (L)

Predicted finish: 1st, (18-6)

Penrith have been the best team all season (again) and could win through the last five games. However, the finals calculations of a few teams could rest on whether they choose to rest all of their big names in the last round against the Cowboys, who will be fighting to stay in the top eight.

Mitchell Moses, Reece Walsh and Latrell Mitchell are all key players in the run to the NRL finals.

2. BRONCOS

Won: 15, Lost: 5, Drawn: 0, Points: 34, Points Differential: 153

Broncos’ run home

R23: Cowboys at Queensland Country Bank Stadium (W)

R24: Eels at The Gabba (W)

R25: Bye

R26: Raiders at GIO Stadium (W)

R27: Storm at Suncorp Stadium (L)

Predicted finish: 2nd, (18-6)

The Broncos are cruising at the right time and with a bye nestled among their last five games, only a desperate Storm side gunning for a top-four finish could trip them up.

The Broncos are flying at the moment, can they keep it up at the business end of the season?

3. WARRIORS

Won: 12, Lost: 7, Drawn: 0, Points: 30, Points Differential: 111

Warriors’ run home

R23: Titans at Cbus Super Stadium (W)

R24: Wests Tigers at FMG Stadium Waikato (W)

R25: Sea Eagles at Go Media Stadium (W)

R26: Dragons at Go Media Stadium (W)

R27: Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium (W)

Predicted finish: 3rd, (17-7)

They’ve been the surprise packet of the competition and if they keep it up, they’ll finish top four for the first time since 2007. Three games in New Zealand and all five games against teams in the bottom eight to finish the year is a gift.

4. STORM

Won: 12, Lost: 7, Drawn: 0, Points: 30, Points Differential: 101

Storm’s run home

R23: Panthers at Bluebet Stadium (L)

R24: Raiders at AAMI Park (W)

R25: Dragons at WIN Stadium (W)

R26: Titans at AAMI Park (W)

R27: Broncos at Suncorp Stadium (W)

Predicted finish: 4th, (16-8)

Melbourne’s big guns have been down on form this season compared to their usual standards, but with a top four finish at stake they should be firing come the final round to make a finals-eve statement at Suncorp Stadium.

Melbourne get a crack at Penrith on Friday (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

5. RAIDERS

Won: 11, Lost: 8, Drawn: 0, Points: 28, Points Differential: -78

Raiders’ run home

R23: Wests Tigers at GIO Stadium (W)

R24: Storm at AAMI Park (L)

R25: Bulldogs at GIO Stadium (W)

R26: Broncos at GIO Stadium (L)

R27: Sharks at PointsBet Stadium (W)

Predicted finish: 7th, (14-10)

It’s been a mixed year for Ricky Stuart’s men, who need to play themselves back into form against the Wests Tigers this week. If not, it could be a hard month with the Broncos and Storm, and finally a desperate Sharks side to overcome. Their season is on the line.

6. RABBITOHS

Won: 11, Lost: 9, Drawn: 0, Points: 26, Points Differential: 90

Rabbitohs’ run home

R23: Sharks at Optus Stadium (W)

R24: Dragons at Barlow Park (W)

R25: Knights at McDonald Jones Stadium (W)

R26: Bye

R27: Roosters at Accor Stadium (W)

Predicted finish: 5th, (15-9)

The return of Latrell Mitchell has come at the best time for the Rabbitohs to catch fire before finals. In the last five rounds they have a bye, and three of four games against bottom eight teams. They need to be careful though, Sharks and Knights are desperate to save their seasons.

Latrell Mitchell will be better for the run in his return game against the Tigers (Photo by Jenny Evans/Getty Images)

7. SHARKS

Won: 10, Lost: 9, Drawn: 0, Points: 26, Points Differential: 70

Sharks’ run home

R23: Rabbitohs at Optus Stadium (L)

R24: Titans at PointsBet Stadium (W)

R25: Cowboys at Queensland Country Bank Stadium (L)

R26: Knights at McDonald Jones Stadium (L)

R27: Raiders at PointsBet Stadium (L)

Predicted finish: 11th, (11-13)

It gets harder from here for the Sharks, who could slip out of the top eight at the end of round 23 with a loss to the Rabbitohs. A hamstring injury to fullback Will Kennedy also complicates matters for the out of form side. They’ll face Cowboys, Knights and Raiders all gunning for a finals finish too.

8. COWBOYS

Won: 11, Lost: 9, Drawn: 0, Points: 26, Points Differential: 48

Cowboys’ run home

R23: Broncos at Queensland Country Bank Stadium (L)

R24: Bye

R25: Sharks at Queensland Country Bank Stadium (W)

R26: Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium (W)

R27: Panthers at BlueBet Stadium (W)

Predicted finish: 6th, (14-10)

A bye in the final rounds is a huge plus for the Cowboys who are in disarray after a loss to the Titans. It could cost them Valentine Holmes too, who faces a four-game suspension for a wayward tackle. A win against a depleted Panthers side in round 27 could be all that saves them.

Cowboys star Valentine Holmes is facing a 3-4 game suspension (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

9. KNIGHTS

Won: 9, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 25, Points Differential: 72

Knights’ run home

R23: Dolphins at Optus Stadium (W)

R24: Bulldogs at McDonald Jones Stadium (W)

R25: Rabbitohs at McDonald Jones Stadium (L)

R26: Sharks at McDonald Jones Stadium (W)

R27: Dragons at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium (W)

Predicted finish: 8th, (13-1-10)

The Knights are in hot form to win four in a row, including victories against Storm and Raiders. They can make a genuine fortress out of McDonald Jones Stadium with three games at home to finish the year. If they’re a serious finals contender, only the Rabbitohs should trouble them now.

Matt Lodge has been brought in by the Sea Eagles to add some grunt up front. NRL Imagery

10. SEA EAGLES

Won: 9, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 25, Points Differential: -25

Sea Eagles’ run home

R23: Roosters at SCG (W)

R24: Panthers at 4 Pines Park (L)

R25: Warriors at Go Media Stadium (L)

R26: Bulldogs at Accor Stadium (W)

R27: Wests Tigers at 4 Pines Park (W)

Predicted finish: 9th, (12-1-11)

The next two weeks will determine whether Manly can make a return to the finals. A win against Sydney Roosters at the SCG is a must. If not, they’ll have to beat Penrith at Brookvale Oval and the Warriors in New Zealand to make the top eight.

11. EELS

Won: 10, Lost: 10, Drawn: 0, Points: 24, Points Differential: 59

Eels’ run home

R23: Dragons at CommBank Stadium (W)

R24: Broncos at The Gabba (L)

R25: Roosters at CommBank Stadium (W)

R26: Panthers at BlueBet Stadium (L)

R27: Bye

Predicted finish: 10th, (12-12)

The Eels have fallen out of the race just when it’s starting to get good. A bye in the last round helps, but for the grand finalists to make the finals this year they need to beat both the Panthers and the Broncos on their home turf. On form it seems a bridge too far.

* The Titans, Dolphins, Roosters also remain mathematical chances at this stage but need wins and for other results go their way

Originally published as NRL 2023 run home: Every game and final ladder prediction, top eight contenders