NRL 2018 report cards: How your club fared in unpredictable season
AFTER the most unpredictable season of the NRL era, Paul Crawley delivers his 2018 report card. Melbourne sets the benchmark again, while South Sydney are most improved. But it’s time to get fair dinkum about the bottom eight clubs.
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AFTER the most unpredictable season of the NRL era, PAUL CRAWLEY delivers his 2018 report card.
Melbourne has again set the benchmark, while South Sydney get the award for most improved. But it’s time to get fair dinkum about the performances of some bottom eight clubs.
MELBOURNE
My tip mid-season: Third
Currently: First
I wrote mid-year Cam Smith’s rep retirement could be the Storm’s finals trump card. It’s one of the few tips I got right this year so I will claim it here. Seriously, will finish with back-to-back minor premierships and my pick now to be first team since Brisbane in 1992-93 to claim back-to-back titles. Don’t forget they’ve done it without a regular No. 7 filling Cooper Cronk’s boots. Just another amazing coaching achievement from Craig Bellamy. What a footy club.
Key stats: Conceded fewest points, second-fewest tries, second-fewest run metres and equal-second-fewest linebreaks.
ROOSTERS
My tip mid-season: Seventh
Currently: Second
No team entered 2018 under more pressure. While James Tedesco has been outstanding, I reserve judgment on the Cronk investment until after preliminary final, which is where Mitchell Pearce got them last year. Yet to set the world on fire in attack but if they beat Parramatta on Saturday, the Roosters will finish the regular season in second spot, same as last year. Losing Dylan Napa to a three-game suspension couldn’t have come at a worse time, but they do get Jared Waerea-Hargreaves back this week.
Key stats: Conceded fewest tries, fewest linebreaks and missed fewest tackles. Second-worst average completion rate (75.6 per cent) of any finals team.
RABBITOHS
My tip mid-season: Fifth
Currently: Third
Not many had Souths in their top eight this year, so for that reason Anthony Seibold just shades Bellamy as my coach of the year. And Damien Cook is my Dally M player of the year. Showed in the round 21 win over Storm why they can win the comp, but since then have lost three straight to the Roosters, Broncos and Raiders, which is a real worry. Still, with Greg Inglis back they can climb out of this hole. But so much depends on how finals are officiated. Souths rely on fast play-the-balls to build momentum.
Key stats: Easily the most linebreaks and most run metres. Rabbitohs also have more than 63 per cent fast/very fast PTBs this season, most of any team.
SHARKS
My tip mid-season: Second
Currently: Fourth
I seriously don’t think this salary cap investigation will bother the Sharks players too much because we know from experience this is one club that thrives on a siege mentality. You also look at the way the State of Origin impacted some clubs and it’s probably no surprise Cronulla are showing little sign of fatigue because Val Holmes was the Sharks’ only Origin player and he has taken his game to another level. Have the competition’s toughest pack and Aaron Woods’s arrival has been a huge bonus.
Key stats: Have conceded the third-fewest points and tries, equal-second-fewest linebreaks, and missed the fourth-fewest tackles.
PANTHERS
My tip mid-season: First
Currently: Fifth
What was Phil Gould thinking sacking Anthony Griffin a month out from the finals? Remember, they led the comp going into Origin but have won just four matches since round 15, with three of those wins coming on the back of late comebacks. I know James Maloney returns from injury this week but I’m not sure that will be enough to save their season because they are playing like strangers. And who could blame them? What a shame because this is a seriously good football team.
Key stats: Have won just three of eight matches against the other top-eight teams, the worst record of any finals team.
DRAGONS
My tip mid-season: Fourth
Currently: Sixth
I can’t believe some people are calling for Paul McGregor’s head. If you said at the start of the year the Dragons would be sitting sixth a week out from the finals, I reckon most would have thought that was a fair achievement. Instead, they over-achieved, leading the comp for most of the year, and now people are saying McGregor can’t coach. Instead of blaming McGregor, I reckon the players need to take ownership for the drop since Origin. They were the ones talking themselves up before it.
Key stats: From rounds one to 15, they averaged 225 more running metres per game than opponents, easily best of any team. Since round 16, have averaged 260 metres per game less than opponents, the worst of any team.
BRONCOS
My tip mid-season: Sixth
Currently: Seventh
If the Broncos don’t want Wayne Bennett next year, I reckon there’s a few clubs who could do worse than keep the old fella off the pension. Laugh all you want, but I’ve given the Broncos an “A” because they’ve had a rotten run with injuries and have played most of the season without two of their three highest-paid players in Jack Bird and Matt Gillett. Yet here they are on the eve of the finals and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they make a run to the grand final like the Cows did last year.
Key stats: Won eight from 12 against top-eight teams this year, the best record of any team. Also have best completion rate (78.5 per cent).
WARRIORS
My tip mid-season: Eighth
Currently: Eighth
Great job, Steve Kearney. The Warriors’ total of 14 wins is their most since making the grand final in 2011. And a win tomorrow against Canberra would equal their second-best finish in regular season with 15 wins, having won a club-record 17 games in 2002 and 15 in 2003. I thought they were gone when the Titans spanked them in round 20. But since then, they have won four of seven. Now in charge of their own destiny.
Key stats: Have conceded 84 penalties inside their defensive 20 metres this season, the most of any team.
WESTS TIGERS
My tip mid-season: 10th
Currently: Ninth
Started like a house on fire but I reckon a ninth-placed finish is a fair reflection of this roster. Fox Sports Stats show they are on track for both best-ever defensive season and worst-ever attacking season. Have won seven matches by four points or less, which shows the character within. What worries me is I still have a feeling we haven’t heard the last of Penrith’s advances towards Ivan Cleary. If Cleary sticks to his word, the Tigers are building for a bright future.
Key stats: Conceded just 409 points this year (430 in 2011 the previous best) and scored just 367 (386 in 2013 previous worst).
RAIDERS
My tip mid-season: Ninth
Currently: 10th
Another year of missed opportunity. I know they didn’t have Josh Hodgson for half the season and losing Jack Wighton and Jarrod Croker didn’t help. Even so, look at how many match-winning leads the Raiders blew and they have no one to blame for missing the finals but themselves. I reckon it started in pre-season because to me they didn’t look fit and their early results indicated that was the case. Their past two wins over the Roosters and Rabbitohs show exactly what they are capable of.
Key stats: Lost five matches when leading by 10 points or more. Led 15 games after 60 minutes, equal-most of any team.
KNIGHTS:
My tip mid-season: 12th
Currently: 11th
For a team that finished with the past three wooden spoons, 2018 was a giant step forward. I understand plenty were tipping the Knights to make the eight, but losing Pearce for so long ruined any hope of that. But you look for positives and there’s plenty. Kalyn Ponga is a superstar while Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Daniel Saifiti are future representative players. Next year they get Slade Griffin and Tautau Moga back and Jesse Ramien and Tim Glasby arrive. And they still have money to spend.
Key stats: Conceded most points (583) and tries (96). Also ran for fewest metres (1238 per game) and conceded most (1468 per game).
BULLDOGS
My tip mid-season: 14th
Currently: 12th
The way the Bulldogs finished the season with wins over the Tigers, Broncos, Warriors and Dragons in four of their past five games is a real credit to Dean Pay and his playing group. Remember, this was without Kieran Foran, Moses Mbye and Aaron Woods. Josh Jackson and David Klemmer have been enormous, as have the Morris boys, Brett and Josh. They will be missed in 2019. But we’ve seen the future emerge in the likes of Lachlan Lewis, Reimis Smith and Rhyse Martin.
Key stats: Ranked second for fewest errors (9.6 per game) and fewest penalties (7.1 per game). But second-worst red-zone attack in the comp.
TITANS
My tip mid-season: 15th
Currently: 13th
Can beat any team on their best day but their best and worst is still too far apart, typified in the form of Ash Taylor. Taylor is now 23 and he has all the talent in the world. But he has to decide if he wants to put in the work that it takes to become an NRL superstar. Sometimes it just all comes too easy. Still, the rise of young AJ Brimson is a huge positive and I really rate their pack. I had them as my wooden spoon pick to start the year so they finished better than what I expected.
Key stats: Busted fewest tackles (22.3 per game), second-fewest run metres (1332 per game) and conceded equal-most penalties. NRL’s worst completion rate (75 per cent).
COWBOYS
My tip mid-season: 13th
Currently: 14th
I still can’t believe it. Like most, I tipped the Cowboys to win the comp. I do feel sorry for Johnathan Thurston but he couldn’t have tried harder and this year’s results are not going to change the legacy he leaves behind. And I still wonder what might have been had Jordan McLean played more footy, because he has been a powerhouse since his return from injury. Ditto if Kalyn Ponga had not gone to Newcastle. Anyway, it is what it is. Now they’re relying on Valentine Holmes returning next year.
Key stats: If they lose this week, their seven wins will be fewest of any previous season’s grand finalists in the compulsory GF era (1954-2018).
SEA EAGLES
My tip mid-season: 11th
Currently: 15th
Michael Maguire made an insightful comment on Matty Johns’ show last week when he was asked if you can win without the right resources in reference to Manly. Maguire said you can if you have good people and the right leadership. Make no mistake, lack of leadership is what has let the Sea Eagles down badly this year. While we wouldn’t know half of what has gone on behind closed doors, I will tell you one thing for certain: this squad should not be sitting so far down the ladder.
Key stats: Conceded second-most points (574) and tries (95). Lost nine games after leading at some stage by six points or more, the most of any team.
EELS
My tip mid-season: 16th
Currently: 16th
Last week in Townsville was the exclamation point on Parramatta’s season. They fair dinkum played like they wanted the wooden spoon. Brad Arthur did a good job holding the Eels together during the salary cap crisis but his recruitment and retention has been seriously exposed. The fact Arthur appointed Clint Gutherson as captain after less than 50 NRL games suggests to me Arthur has no faith in his senior players. Yet he has now been head coach for five years at Parra. He built this squad.
Key stats: Scored fewest points (364) and made fewest linebreaks (74) this season. Set to secure third wooden spoon in seven years.
Ends
Originally published as NRL 2018 report cards: How your club fared in unpredictable season
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