Matty Johns: The eight commandments NSW must follow to defeat Maroons in Origin decider
Stop the penalties, stop Cameron Munster and stop getting in their own way - do these things and the NSW Blues can start thinking about celebrating another Origin series victory.
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You have to admire Billy Slater‘s willingness to take big gambles in selection, even if it means changing a winning team.
The Queensland coach has never shied away from expressing his admiration for Reece Walsh. So, when incumbent fullback Kalyn Ponga became unavailable through injury, Walsh appeared the red-hot favourite to replace him in the Maroons’ No.1 jersey.
Walsh was the logical choice. Centre is a position the Maroons don’t have depth in, hence why Slater went for Robert Toia in game one after just 10 NRL games.
If Slater shifted Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, he would have needed to find a centre with no obvious choice available.
But Slater has indeed gone for the Hammer, and made a selection bombshell by putting Brisbane’s Gehamet Shibasaki at right centre.
Shibasaki’s selection is a reward for hard work and perseverance, playing just 45 NRL games since his debut in 2018.
In that time, the 27-year-old has had two stints at the Broncos and short stays at Newcastle, North Queensland and South Sydney before being quickly moved on, as well as a season in Japanese rugby, playing just eight games.
It’s both a feel-good story and a monumental risk.
The other selection bombshell isn’t a risk at all. It could be a masterstroke, bringing back Maroons legend Josh Papali’i to lift his team emotionally, knowing they’re going to need something special to win this Origin decider in Sydney.
For the Blues, it’s business as usual. NSW coach Laurie Daley has resisted the temptation to bring in Keaon Koloamatangi, instead sticking with Stefano Utoikamanu, in a show of loyalty that surprises no one who knows Daley.
On paper, once again, NSW look dominant, but that’s the classic State of Origin narrative. And game two delivered the classic result to that classic narrative.
These are the eight things the Blues must do to ensure victory Wednesday night.
1. EXERCISE DISCIPLINE
Forget about referee bias, the lopsided penalty count to Queensland was of the Blues’ own doing.
The Blues’ discipline was shocking, ball security poor and the scoreline at halftime was a result of the self-inflicted wounds.
When the Blues finally found focus in the second half, their football flourished and they went perilously close to a comeback for the ages.
If they play with discipline, they win.
2. GET CLEAN, EARLY BALL TO THE CENTRES
NSW enjoy a superior mismatch on both edges. Shibasaki and Toia aren’t in the same postcode as Latrell Mitchell and Stephen Crichton when it comes to experience in high-pressure football.
The Blues’ centres need early, clean ball to exert their dominance.
The Blues’ creative men don’t need to set up elaborate sequences and shapes to create a numerical advantage, just get the ball to them fast and give them one-on-one opportunity against their opposites.
Slater will urge his defenders to rush up at Mitchell and Crichton, so Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai and Isaah Yeo should vary how far they take the ball into the defence line.
3. A FIT NATHAN CLEARY
In game two, Cleary‘s inability to use his array of kicks hurt the Blues almost as much as their poor discipline. In the series opener, the Blues halfback had 17 kicks for 504m. In Perth, hampered by a groin issue, he had 14 kicks for just 347m.
When Cleary is able to use all aspects of his kicking game, he creates tries, repeats sets, territorial dominance and pressure.
With Tabuai-Fidow at fullback, Cleary‘s long kicking has to be great and the kick chase even better.
4. TERRITORIAL BATTLE OUT OF BACK PLAY
Predictably, in game two, Queensland poured enormous defensive energy into stopping NSW fullback Dylan Edwards, and wingers Brian To’o and Zac Lomax on early tackles. While wrecking ball To’o ran for his “Origin standard” 200m, the Maroons impacted Lomax’s output. He went from 23 runs and 173m in game one to just 13 runs for 95m in Perth.
Queensland will compress their defence on early tackles and rush. The Blues must be willing to push the ball to the edges coming out of trouble, take the easy metres and avoid running into brick walls.
5. NO SPACE, NO DUMMIES
In the Cameron Munster era, Queensland have enjoyed big success when they have a run-first, pass-second mentality.
The Blues have to discourage Munster from running the football and the key to that is by not presenting visual opportunity – the moment the Queensland five-eighth recognises some space or a fatigued defender, he will run.
As far as Tom Dearden is concerned, take no dummies.
Dearden will go at the Blues defence all night. Under no circumstances can they be conned by his trademark show-and-go.
6. CONTROL HARRY GRANT
NSW’s markers need to be set and on alert for the threat of Harry Grant out of dummy half.
I wrote earlier about the importance of discipline, but the ruck area and the speed of the Maroons’ play-the-ball is so crucial that NSW have to be prepared to concede the occasional six again if it means keeping Grant quiet.
7. USE THE TAUMALOLO RULE
The Blues can’t allow Papali’i to enjoy yardage dominance. Slater has picked him for inspiration and Queensland will lift in confidence if Big Papa starts rolling through the Blues’ middle.
It’s unpopular in the modern game, but some players are best defended with an old-fashioned legs tackle to halt their run immediately.
Take Jason Taumalolo for example. The Melbourne Storm use the “Taumalolo rule” to lessen the North Queensland forward’s impact.
The first marker must jump out and chop the big man down with a low side-on tackle.
8. LISTEN TO AL DAVIS
The late Al Davis, owner of the LA Raiders, would say three words to his players as they were about to run out onto the field: “Just win, baby.”
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