NRL Round 1 Footy Form: The stats that matter, what’s been backed and where the money is going
GET the inside mail from the TAB for Round 1 of the NRL. Check out all the best stats, what’s been backed and where the money is going in order to find a winner.
Footy Form
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GET the inside Footy Form mail for Round 1 of the NRL.
Check out all the best stats, what’s been backed and where the money is going in order to find a winner.
RAIDERS V PANTHERS
GIO Stadium, Saturday 3pm
EVENLY PLACED
The overall head to head between these two teams are completely even with each team winning 33 matches each and one ending in a draw. Although, while the overall head to head is even, the Raiders completely dominated this match-up at GIO Stadium, winning 17 of 25 against the Panthers.
SO CLOSE, YET SO FAR
Last season, Canberra had five losses by two points or less (all at home) and eight overall by eight or less, these losses ultimately seeing them finish in 10th place, two wins outside the eight.
OUT OF THE STARTING GATES
After losing three straight Round 1 matches, the Raiders were opening round winners last season with a 24-20 win over the Sharks. The Raiders have also lost three of their past four opening matches at GIO stadium, their last win coming in 2013 when they went on to win their first eight matches at home. The Panthers have won their past three Round 1 matches, including defeating the Raiders in 2013, however these were all at Pepper Stadium. This will be the first time the Panthers have played their opening match of a season away from home since 2009, when they lost to the Sharks.
RAIDERS ATTACK
Last season, the Raiders matches had on average 48 total points scored per game, easily the highest average of any team and while they scored 24 points per game, third most in the league over the regular season, they also conceded 23.7 per game, fifth most over the regular season. In comparison to the Panthers who had the worst attack in the league, just averaging 16.6 points per game and failed to score 400 points in a season for the first time since 1996.
Betting Summary: Punters are split down the middle and think there is value to be had with the Panthers to continue their Round 1 winning streak.
Bets: $3500 @ $1.65 Canberra, $2200 @ $2.40 Penrith
WESTS TIGERS V WARRIORS
Campbelltown Stadium, Saturday 5:30pm
WINNING WAYS
The Tigers have won four of the past six matches between these two sides in Sydney, including their past two at Campbelltown by over 30 points. All five of the matches between these 2 sides at Campbelltown have been decided by a double figure margin.
EARLY START JITTERS
Since entering the competition, the Warriors have been terrible in their opening match of the season; they have lost their past six and 15 of 21 overall. In their opening away match of the season, the Warriors have lost eight of the past 10.
TRY SCORING MACHINES
Tim Simona has scored at least one try in each of his past three matches against the Warriors, including three tries in two matches against them in 2015. Manu Vatuvei has scored seven tries in his 12 matches against Wests Tigers, including a double against them in Round Six last season. Shaun Johnson has scored five tries in his six matches against Wests Tigers, including four tries in his past three matches against them. David Nofoaluma loves playing at his local ground having scored five tries in his past three matches.
CONFIDENCE BUILDING
Jason Taylor is chasing his 50th win as a coach. He should be confident in getting it as he has won five of seven matches against the Warriors as coach; this is his best record against any opponent.
Betting Summary: Despite the Warriors being a short-priced favourite punters are keen on the Tigers to spring an upset.
Bets: $1800 @ $3.25 Wests Tigers, $1100 @ $3.25 Wests Tigers
COWBOYS V SHARKS
1300SMILES Stadium, Saturday 7:30pm
WINNING STREAK
Last season, the Sharks broke the Cowboys 11 game winning streak in R16, before also ending their eight game winning streak in R22, making Cronulla one of only two teams the Cowboys didn’t defeat in the 2015 regular season. Although, the Cowboys have now won eight of their past 13 opening matches against the Sharks in Townsville.
HIGH SOCRING AFFAIR
Over 60 per cent of the matches between these two sides have been decided by 13 points or more. Cowboys 13+ $2.50. Sharks 13+ $9.
TIGHT SQUEEZE
Both of these teams were good at winning tight matches last season; the Cowboys had 15 games decided by 8 points or less – winning 11 of them. The Sharks had 16 games decided by eight points or less – winning 10 of them.
HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
If all 17 names Cowboys get on the field, they will be the first team since the Eels in 1984 to have every one of their Grand Final winning players from the previous season play for them the following year.
Betting Summary: Who would of thought the Cowboys would be unwanted in Round 1 but that’s the case against the Sharks. Upset on the cards.
Bets: $2000 @ $3.25 Cronulla, $4000 @ $1.95 Cronulla +8.0
ROOSTERS V RABBITOHS
Allianz Stadium, Sunday 4pm
TOTAL DOMINATION
At Allianz the Roosters have dominated this match-up winning 23 of 35 meetings. Their last meeting saw the Rabbitohs held scoreless for the first time under Michael Maguire, losing 30-nil.
The Roosters were very good at Allianz Stadium last season winning 11 of 14 matches
HALF TIME LEAD
The Roosters led at half-time on 21 occasions last season, the most for any team, while the Rabbitohs managed to take the lead into the break on just nine occasions, the equal third fewest of any club. 1st half winner: Roosters $2, Souths $1.80
INGLIS
Greg Inglis has scored six tries in his past five matches against the Roosters and has a great try scoring record in Round 1. From 2009 onwards, Inglis has scored at least once in every Round 1 match besides 2012 and 2013 seasons. Inglis also scored a hat trick against the Roosters in Round 1 2014. Greg Inglis to score 2+ tries: $5.
Betting Summary: The Roosters have had a tough off-season and as a result will start their longest price in the premiership market since 2010 at $13. They are also friendless against Souths this week, with all the support going towards Michael Maguire’s men.
Bets: $3000 @ $1.75 on Souths, $2500 @ $1.75 Souths
TITANS V KNIGHTS
Cbus Super Stadium, Sunday 6:30pm
TITANS HEADACHE
The Titans have won just five of 14 games against the Knights. The Titans have won just one of their five matches against the Knights at Cbus, their equal worst record against any club at the venue. They have lost their past three straight there against the Knights.
HIGH SCORING AFFAIR
The Knights have scored at least 2 points in all five matches at Cbus Super Stadium, while the Titans have only managed this once back in 2009. The Knights average just over 26 points per game against the Titans, the best average against any current opponent. Five of the Knights nine wins have been by 20 points or more.
OFF AND RUNNING
The Knights have won four of their past six opening matches to start a season, with two of these coming away from home. The Titans have won five of their opening nine matches to start a season. Three of their four losses have been by two points or less, although at home the Titans have lost four of their past five opening matches.
COACHING WOES
Neil Henry has won just 10 of his 28 matches at the Titans (38%).
Titans are starting as the shortest priced team in the Most losses market in TAB’s history at $2.75 with the departure of some big names from their side.
Betting Summary: Gold Coast are outsiders but they may change by kick-off given the support for the home team. The Titans expected to open with a win.
Bets: $3200 @ $2 Gold Coast
STORM V DRAGONS
AAMI Park, Monday 7pm
THE CURSE OF MUNDINE
After Anthony Mundine said the “Dragons were the true Premiers” following the 1999 Grand Final, the dragons have gone on to lose 13 consecutive matches in Melbourne starting with a 60 point 70-10 thumping at the MCG in 2000. The Dragons have only won eight of 31 matches against Melbourne – their worst record against any opponent.
ROUND 1 GLORY
This is the third time in four season that these two teams have met in the opening round. Melbourne has won both of the previous two encounters. Melbourne have also won it’s opening match in the past 11 seasons – the only team in history to have achieved this feat. Since 2009, St George Illawarra has lost just three times in the opening round, however, these were all against Melbourne.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTY
Melbourne has the best Monday Night record of any team since 2007, winning 25 of 41 matches. However, they struggled last season only winning three of eight games. Dragons have won just nine of 29 Monday Night matches, and have only won 2 of 14 Monday Night away games.
BILLY’S STORM
Billy Slater has just six tries in 18 matches against the dragons, his second worst tally against any team ahead of only the four tries he has scored against the Cowboys.
Betting Summary: Punters think the Dragons can overcome the Storm’s great Round 1 record and cause on upset.
Bets: $2000 @ $3.25 St George Ill
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Originally published as NRL Round 1 Footy Form: The stats that matter, what’s been backed and where the money is going
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