NRL Grand Final 2016: Destiny is on Cronulla’s side in decider, says Matthew Johns

TWO remain. Melbourne, a team who define success against Cronulla, a club turning 50 and yet to get their hands on the trophy. MATTHEW JOHNS declares the winner.

TWO teams remain.

One, the Melbourne Storm, a team who appear that all they seem to do is make grand finals and enjoy success.

The other, the Cronulla Sharks, turning 50 years old and yet to get their hands on the trophy.

Let’s check the form, find the strengths and weaknesses, and declare a winner.

REASONS TO CHEER FOR CRONULLA

THE FORM THAT GOT THEM HERE

The Storm were a model of consistency all season, no surprises there. While the Sharks were the team of the middle season, winning 15 on the trot, before suffering a form dip and a loss of focus on the eve of the finals.

The Storm have been typically methodical in the finals. In week one, they took apart North Queensland with their middle-third assault and a lion share of possession.

Last week against Canberra, I thought the Storm were down on expectations, given they had a two-week preparation going in.

Honestly, it was a match the Raiders will believe they probably should have won. Canberra bombed a couple of tries and some tough refereeing decisions aided the Melburnians.

Meanwhile, the Sharks found their focus in the second half of their week one win over Canberra. In the previous month they had gone away from their successful attacking formula of speed and footwork through the middle and had started playing too sideways.

Returning to their strengths in the finals 40 minutes got them the crucial win over the Raiders and set them up for victory over the Cowboys.

At Allianz Stadium last Friday night, they were too energised, too fast and too physical for the tired defending premiers.

WHAT THE SHARKS CAN LEARN FROM THE RAIDERS

The Raiders showed the Sharks how to win the yardage battle against Melbourne.

First, be willing to move the ball wide. It’s the best way to make metres against the Storm when coming out of trouble.

Second, if you’re going through the middle, do it using your outside backs. Their speed and footwork worries the big Melbourne pack.

In attack, the Raiders went to the Blake Green and Cheyse Blair defensive combination with some success, particularly when they opened up and attacked them from the far touchline.

It’s hard to break down the Storm goal line defence when attacking them from the middle, but if you open up the full width of the field, the Melbourne defence looked far less certain.

WHO WILL THE STORM TARGET?

The Storm are the best team at identifying and exploiting defensive weakness.

Last week Melbourne targeted Josh Papalii and Aidan Sezer and they just never stopped attacking them.

They hit them with the same attacking shape, using four or five subtle variations, which had the Raiders scrambling.

This week they’ll look to attack in and around Chad Townsend and James Maloney. How the Sharks halves go defensively will be a huge factor in the result.

CONTAINING CAMERON SMITH

Smith is the best big-game player of the modern era. His impact will have more influence on the result than any other player. He’s the focal point of the Storm’s middle third, flat and fast attacking style.

How do the Sharks contain him?

Well, the Raiders did things a little differently from marker last Saturday night, with a fair bit of success.

Most teams get their markers to split and fade back into the defensive line to protect their big middle men. The Raiders mostly did that, but when the Storm were attacking up in the Raiders’ quarter they did the opposite — they rushed him.

The front marker jumped out, bumped him, hit him, knocked his passing hand and came up with a couple of crucial turnovers.

The Sharks can’t give Smith the time to jump out and assess his options. They must force him to pass early.

THE BATTLE OF THE BACK THREE

Cameron Munster, Suliasi Vunivalu and Marika Koroibete v Ben Barba, Valentine Holmes and Sosaia Feki.

This battle decides who wins the all important yardage game.

Both teams will complete more than 80 per cent of their sets, which means this game will go through long sustained periods of arm wrestle.

The back three and what they do on the early plays in the tackle count, and what sort of impact they have when they choose to get infield as the middle defenders get tired will be enormously important.

For the Sharks Holmes is as important as Maloney.

When Holmes gets infield with those electrifying runs, he sparks the Sharks’ attack into action. Holmes can’t get involved enough.

He must be the Sharks’ yardage leader.

KEEPING YOUR HEAD

Big crowd, lots of noise, lots of adrenaline and lots of pressure. If you don’t keep your head you can lose the game in the first 20 minutes.

You know Cooper Cronk and Smith are going to deliver, the bigger the occasion the better the focus.

It’s imperative that Maloney and Townsend take control of their team from the opening minute.

On Sunday it will be very difficult for the halves to communicate with their teams, so it’s important that early on you keep things simple.

Kick well, chase hard and defend strong.

WHO WINS?

I loved what I saw in the Sharks last Friday night. I just feel they have more points in them than the Storm. They have Maloney, Townsend, Barba and the brilliant Wade Graham as major attacking focal points. That’s a lot of variation.

The Storm are a great big game team, but the Sharks are playing with a sense of destiny.

Sharks by 4.

Clive Churchill Medal — Valentine Holmes.

Originally published as NRL Grand Final 2016: Destiny is on Cronulla’s side in decider, says Matthew Johns