Matty Johns tips the Panthers and Cowboys to progress in NRL semi-finals
MATTHEW JOHNS: I’m tipping two high quality, high pressure NRL semi-finals, to be decided by the class — and absence — of key players.
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THE pressure of finals football will be immense on this weekend’s four combatants.
On Saturday night two young teams face off after having very different preparations. The Raiders are coming off the back of a heartbreaking defeat to Cronulla, which not only cost them a preliminary final spot but wounded their best player in Josh Hodgson. The Panthers are on a massive high after comfortably beating the Bulldogs and their tails will be up.
On Friday night we resume hostilities between two sides that just won’t lie down. The Cowboys and Broncos will probably be square at fulltime and if they are true to form a field goal will decide it.
NORTH QUEENSLAND V BRISBANE
The Broncos have made it six in a row now, but last Friday’s win over the Gold Coast wasn’t an entirely convincing display. Brisbane received a number of contentious decisions, which, if they’d gone the other way, would have at least narrowed the 44-28 scoreline.
Certainly 44-28 was a long way off the style of match the Cowboys played in their 16-10 defeat at the hands of Melbourne.
The Cowboys couldn’t quite break the shackles of the Storm defence, which slowed down the ruck and allowed Melbourne to rush up and pressure Johnathan Thurston.
But all things considered, the Cowboys v Storm was a much higher-quality contest, and even though defeated, has North Queensland well placed for this.
THURSTON KICKING V BRONCOS
The Broncos are having enormous problems defusing opposition kicks. Last Friday night the Titans scored three first-half tries and had one disallowed, all from kicks, both high and along the ground.
Expect Thurston to pepper the Broncos with an assortment of kicks for the likes of Kyle Feldt, Justin O’Neill and Javid Bowen.
Thurston, over the back half of the year, has generated a lot of repeat sets by putting the ball on the ground. But I expect him to particularly target Corey Oates with some high balls.
THE MILFORD FACTOR
Anthony Milford is as important to the Broncos as the great Allan Langer was to those premiership-winning Brisbane sides of the 90s.
When the Broncos get into good field position, almost all of the ball goes to Milford.
While Brisbane’s ability to handle Thurston’s kicking game is a big factor in this, so is the Cowboys’ ability to nullify the Milford threat.
The Cowboys’ right-side defence will be tested all night by Milford’s running game. Milford won’t be discouraged, whether he sees opportunity or not, he will still run the football, so the Cowboys will need to make their tackles.
WHO WINS?
I just think the Cowboys have more to their game. Not just Jonathon Thurston, but the combinations around him make them so dangerous. Combined with the fact they are home, makes it a Cowboys victory for mine.
CANBERRA V PENRITH
WHAT WENT WRONG FOR CANBERRA?
Last week the Raiders entered the finals on the back of a 10-game winning streak, but the last two victories did nothing to prepare them for the pressure of finals football.
In Round 25 against Manly on a sunny Saturday afternoon, defence was a low priority as they defeated the home side 44-30. And then the week after, on a brilliantly sunny Sunday afternoon at Leichardt Oval the Wests Tigers simply didn’t turn up as the Raiders smashed them 52-10.
Last Saturday night it was a cold, wet and windy Canberra and the Sharks simply dug in, scored a crucial try before halftime which really put the Raiders under pressure.
The conditions and the pressure of the situation didn’t allow Canberra to play the kind of football they play best, which is fastball movement, from offloads.
The loss of Josh Hodgson after halftime hurt their ability to score points enormously. He was their most dangerous creative player before leaving the field.
WHAT WENT RIGHT FOR THE PANTHERS?
For a young team, Penrith showed enormous maturity last Sunday. Canterbury attacked them with physicality early and did all they could to rattle the young Penrith players.
When the Bulldogs scored first it would’ve been very easy for the Panthers to panic. But they didn’t. They stuck to the script and methodically took the opposition apart with speed, skill and ball movement.
The Panthers were too classy for the Bulldogs, who turned up desperately trying to turn the game into a midfield slugfest. But Penrith would have none of that. As soon as they got momentum, they moved the football, changed angles and pulled the Bulldogs apart.
The Panthers’ confidence is sky high.
POWER V SPEED AND SKILL
The Raiders play power football so well. In the first half last week, the likes of Junior Paulo, Shannon Boyd and Josh Papalii were rampant. The Sharks had no answer for their power running and fast play-the-balls.
Such was their dominance, after 30 minutes they really should’ve led 24-0, instead of just by 12.
But the size of the Raiders pack comes at a price. Whenever the Sharks attacked them through the middle, the Raiders looked vulnerable. On top of that, the Canberra big men, for all their first-half dominance, slowed down considerably when Cronulla started completing sets.
Panthers coach Anthony Griffin will attack the Raiders with speed men right through the middle and I’m not sure if the Raiders’ big men will be able to contain them.
The likes of Matt Moylan, Tyrone Peachey, Waqa Blake and Josh Mansour, the best metre-maker in rugby league, will get in field all night. And it will be this battle, between the Panthers’ backs and the Raiders’ middle defence, which will decide the winner.
SO WHO WINS?
Penrith. Their confidence is high and the loss of Hodgson is significant for Canberra. But can either team beat Melbourne?
The Storm will be the red-hot favourites regardless who wins this match, but both the Panthers and Raiders aren’t without a real chance.
Both benefit from playing their own style of football, which is a little unorthodox and the Storm don’t like unpredictability. So yeah, of course they can win.
Originally published as Matty Johns tips the Panthers and Cowboys to progress in NRL semi-finals
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