Matthew Johns’ NRL preliminary finals preview: who will win and why
MATTHEW JOHNS’ PRELIM PREVIEW: The secret to containing JT and the Cowboys, how the Raiders can win the toughest assignment in the NRL.
Footy Form
Don't miss out on the headlines from Footy Form. Followed categories will be added to My News.
MATTHEW JOHNS: The secret to containing Johnathan Thurston and the Cowboys, how the Raiders can win the toughest assignment in the NRL.
SHARKS V COWBOYS
FRESH V FATIGUED
Watching North Queensland warm up last week you could see the fatigue. It’s a hell of a long season for defending premiers and the Cowboys are feeling the pinch.
In the early exchanges, the Broncos were all over North Queensland. Physically and emotionally the Cowboys were left in the gates.
At half-time, trailing 14-6, matched with the shots of Johnathan Thurston and his men slumped, head bowed, a win was looking unlikely. But the champs found something to pull off a memorable extra-time win.
But if they were tired last week, what will that torrid extra-time win do to the players’ petrol tanks on Friday night?
Meanwhile, the Sharks spent the week icing up, resting up and preparing for the Cowboys. If this was a game decided purely on class and footballing ability, you’d go the defending premiers. But I feel the week off will be a major factor in this one.
STOP TAUMALOLO, STOP THURSTON
The other major factor is the Sharks’ ability to reduce the threat of Thurston. If he consistently gets the forward momentum he needs, the Cowboys will win.
Last Friday night at Fox Sports, Wests Tigers’ Mitchell Moses gave us some insights into minimising Thurston’s impact.
In their 26-14 round 22 victory over the Cowboys, the Tigers did as good a job of containing Thurston as any side I’ve seen.
Moses said the key was understanding the very structured nature of the Cowboys’ attack and, crucially, identifying the Thurston “set-up play” to stop him.
Moses and the Tigers pinpointed that Thurston organised his attacking plays on the back of Jason Taumalolo’s runs. The Tigers focused hard on slowing Taumalolo’s play-the-balls and that allowed them to defend Thurston in an outside/in manner, which denied him time and space.
Last week the Broncos, with the game on the line, totally lost control of Taumalolo, which allowed Thurston to break the shackles and get the Cowboys home.
Much of this game can be attributed to this simple battle — the Sharks forwards v Taumalolo.
WHO WINS?
The Cowboys have been my pick to go back to back since mid-season, but my gut feel is they are just about on empty. Matt Scott’s back injury looks to be causing huge problems.
The big Cowboys pack are vulnerable to the likes of Valentine Holmes, Ben Barba, Jack Bird and Feki, punching through their middle.
SHARKS TO WIN
MELBOURNE V CANBERRA
WHY THE STORM WILL BE SUPER CONFIDENT
The Storm will believe they are going to win because the Raiders’ weakness suits their strengths. Both sides have big forward packs, but the Storm’s is more mobile.
The Raiders’ pack look vulnerable defensively when an opposition side consistently attacks them through the middle.
The Sharks unlocked the Raiders in week one of the finals through the middle, and Penrith gave them a hell of a scare doing the same thing last week.
No one attacks the middle better than the Storm. They’ve done it for 10 years and perfected that style of football.
Using Cameron Smith as their attacking focal point, the Storm will go at Canberra, playing their flat, fast and varied style.
With the ball, Canberra’s outside backs will need to get infield and really help the forwards in yardage because the Raiders’ big men will expend huge amounts of energy defensively.
WHY THE RAIDERS WILL BELIEVE THEY CAN WIN
The Raiders take risks. They are unorthodox and that worries Melbourne.
The Storm love defending against structured attacks, because they see the threat coming a mile away.
The Raiders, while not totally freewheeling, like to venture away from their structured plan and move the ball around the field.
What will really worry Melbourne is if the Raiders start off-loading and moving the ball quickly from those offloads. That’s where the Warriors have had success against Melbourne.
It’s very difficult to maintain an organised defence when an opposition starts to offload.
To beat Melbourne you must move the football around and get away from conservative play. If you play conservatively, the Storm are able to get numbers into tackles and control the speed of the play-the-ball.
Ball movement and bodies in motion mean one-on-one tackles and fast play-the balls.
To beat Melbourne you must win the ruck. Not many teams are able to do it, and that’s why not many teams beat Melbourne.
WHO WINS?
If Canberra are to win, they need to start fast and get to a lead that can unsettle the Storm.
However, a Raiders win would be a huge upset. The Storm at home, on a two-week preparation is just about the toughest assignment in rugby league.
STORM VICTORY
Originally published as Matthew Johns’ NRL preliminary finals preview: who will win and why
Get your 2019 NRL tipping chart
Whether you’re getting the office together or just organising the family tipping competition, you’re going to need a tipping chart. We’ve got you covered. DOWNLOAD YOUR CHART HERE.
Storm’s new iceman sledges Cronk
WITH Cooper Cronk’s departure last season, Cameron Munster has emerged as Melbourne’s clutch hero in 2018, and the playmaker let his former teammate know all about his new-found talent.