Warwick Farm best bets, inside mail for Wednesday, December 4, 2024

The Joe Pride-trained Accredited was very unlucky first-up but can atone with a slight step up in trip on his home track. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Accredited can bounce back from his narrow first-up defeat when steps out on his home track. Picture: Grant Guy

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph form analyst Adam Sherry provides his best bets and race-by-race analysis at Warwick Farm on Wednesday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

WARWICK FARM

BEST BET

Race 6 No. 1: Accredited

Should have won first-up when beaten a nose after being held up. Has a good record on his home track and can go one better.

NEXT BEST

Race 5 No. 1: Invincible Spy

Resumes this campaign as a gelding. Is a first-up winner and will be ready for the 1600m fresh.

VALUE BET

Race 4 No. 5: Lady Superspy

Covered ground when fifth in a Midway last start. Back in grade and trip.

BEST EXOTIC

Quinella Race 5: 1, 4

QUADDIE

Race 3: 1, 2, 4

Race 4: 2, 3, 5

Race 5: 1, 4

Race 6: 1, 2, 3

Apprentice Molly Bourke can continue her good form at Warwick Farm. Picture: Bradley Photos

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

After winning her first stakes race last weekend, apprentice Molly Bourke can continue her good form.

INSIDE MAIL – WARWICK FARM

RACE 1

Monty The Missile was just beaten on debut over 1200m at Newcastle before a second at Kembla in April. Lead all-the-way to Our Little Star in his Rosehill heat before sprinting away to win by nearly four lengths from Choice Legend in his Warwick Farm heat. Shalaa Gold is knocking on the door for a win after placing second in each of his four starts. Was runner-up to Emirate and Private Life in his first two starts. Our Little Star has shown nice ability in placing in five of her seven starts. Good each-way chance if she runs but may be saved for another day. Debutantes Miss Jones and Call Me Sassy are worth consideration.

Bet: Monty The Missile to win

RACE 2

Misterkipchoge has won just one of 13 starts with five placings including his last four starts. Came from about six lengths off the leader to finish a length-and-a-half third behind Morryl Moral over 2040m at The Valley. Became unbalanced when having to shift out abruptly on straightening when third to Kadavar over 2400m at Rosehill last start. Back in grade and can break through for a second career win. Tajanis didn’t appreciate the slow tempo in that race won by Fleet Commander. Bounced back with a win over 1900m at Canterbury.Fleet Commander was dropping back to 2000m when eight to Gilder Water in a Bm78 at Kembla last time out. Back up to 2400m and won over this trip on the Kensington three starts back.

Bet: Misterkipchoge to win

Brave One races on the speed, travels well under @ZacLloydx, and the son of Exceedance handles the wet track to win on debut for @HawkesRacing 🏇@racing_nsw | @aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/gRZFlDaPTE

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) July 6, 2024

RACE 3

Brave One debuted with a smart win over Mayfair after racing outside the leader over 1100m at Randwick on July 6. Returned six weeks later in the Listed Rosebud over 1100m at Rosehill when sixth behind Gatsby’s. Resumes off a third in his Randwick behind August Bloom on Nov 26. Don’t Doubt Merlin defied a betting drift on debut to score a handy win at Goulburn before racing a little ungenerously when fourth at the same track before a spell. Has returned in terrific style with back-to-back wins at Muswellbrook and Wyong over 900m and 1100m respectively. Ready to step up to city grade. Jambalaya will be improved by his first-up third to Midnight Dynamite at Canterbury.

Bet: Brave One to win

RACE 4

Lady Superspy drops back in grade and distance from her fifth behind Flying Bandit in a Midway at Randwick on Nov 5 after racing wide and without cover from the 900m. Was third to Mountain Top and fifth to Soldier Of Rome over his track and distance at her previous two starts. Pioneer Lass kicked off her campaign with a third to Fiddlers Green at Hawkesbury after being held up momentarily after straightening. She wouldn’t have beaten the winner but should have finished a bit closer. Zakiyya started her campaign in Queensland with a win, two placings and a fourth. Came down the Sydney and missed the start by two lengths wen seventh to Elletrica at Rosehill and raced keenly behind Watch My Girl at Newcastle.

Bet: Lady Superspy each-way

It's the @GaiWaterhouse1-Bott trained Invincible Spy on debut!@Clarkyhk rating the @FirstLight_FLR galloper perfectly. pic.twitter.com/CODLUVKPil

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 17, 2023

RACE 5

Invincible Spy started his career with back-to-back wins over 1400m at Newcastle over 1400m and at Gosford 1600m before tackling the Group 3 Spring Stakes at Newcastle. Found the 1200m too short first-up last time in before consecutive wins in the MTC Guineas at Wagga and at Randwick. Kicks off his latest campaign as a gelding. Wasn’t pushed when fourth in his latest trial. Will be ready for the 1600m. Aix En Provence has only been out of the placings once in nine starts when fifth to Don Diego De Vega at the end of his last campaign. Resumed with a half-length third behind Miss Kim Kar under 59,5kg at Canterbury on Nov 20. He is a second-up winner. Physicist and Our Sassy Lady have place claims.

Bet: Invincible Spy to win

RACE 6

Accredited was unlucky not to have won first-up at Canterbury on Nov 20. Locked in behind the leader and held up until the 100m when he pushed out and just failed to grab Yiska when beaten a nose. He is a two-time winner on his home track including one at the distance. Union Army had no luck when held up in the straight when resuming at Canterbury on Nov 15. Went to the line untested when fifth behind Scorch and should have closer. He is a second-up winner over the 1200m. Gelatin was a first-up winner at this track two campaigns back and was third here first-up last preparation. Trialling well.

Bet: Accredited to win