Early look at Saturday’s Turnbull Stakes meeting at Flemington

Exciting colt First Settler can bounce back after bumping into a potential star last time out while a consistent galloper could break through for his maiden Group 1 win in the Turnbull Stakes.

News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Turnbull Stakes meeting at Flemington.

BEST BET

FIRST SETTLER (Race 5, No. 4)

Exciting three-year-old that bumped into a potential star when fresh and will only be improved for that. Loves the straight and can bounce back.

VALUE BET

YOUNG WERTHER (Race 8, No. 10)

Young Werther has placed twice in the Turnbull Stakes and showed with his Caulfield win that he’s going well enough to threaten again on Saturday.

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 2, 5, 6, 9/4, 5, 6/2, 4, 9/1, 4, 9

$100 flexi for 74 per cent

BIG6

2, 4, 9/1, 4, 9/6, 10, 16/3, 7, 10, 12/3, 10/6, 8, 16

$100 flexi for 15.4 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 7: 1, 6, 10, 16

Race 8: 3, 7, 10, 12

Race 9: 1, 3, 5, 10

Race 10: 4, 6, 8, 13, 16

$100 flexi for 31 per cent

Scary could continue his progress towards the Victoria Derby with a win in the Super Impose Stakes at Flemington. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 1: 12.25PM TAB WE’RE ON (1200m)

Difficult race to start Turnbull Stakes Day but the import WARNIE (4) could show something first-up for the Ciaron Maher camp after encouraging trials. TITAN OF CHOICE (12) chased home the smart Isthmus first-up and will be fitter. HULM (11) comes out of the same race as Titan Of Choice and will be better again. MOBY DICK (5) hit the line hard to score first-up and will be fitter again for that.

SUGGESTED BET: Warnie each-way.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Hulm $23 – $18.

RACE 2: 12.55PM LISTED MARIBYRNONG TRIAL STAKES (1000m)

The first two-year-old race of the season is always intriguing. I like to think jumpouts down the straight provide an advantage so have gone with PRICE TAG (7), who performed well in her look at the straight last Thursday. RUMBLE TOWN (2) looks a professional colt that jumped out well. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott always go well with two-year-olds and TREMONTI (4) has shown enough in his Sydney trials while GAMBLER (1) is also worth thought after his trial.

SUGGESTED BET: Price Tag to win – if you must.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Odessa $10 – $7.

RACE 3: 1.30PM SUPER IMPOSE STAKES (1800m)

SCARY (5) comes to town for the first time here but impressed with his easy win at Sale and can continue to improve. SERGEANT MAJOR (2) has hit the line well in his last two outings and looks suited over 1800m. KEENELAND (6) was far too good for his opposition at Benalla and could measure up to this. EL PASO (9) comes out of the same race as Keeneland and should enjoy the longer trip.

SUGGESTED BET: Scary to win.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Red Aces $13 – $11

RACE 4: 2.05PM GROUP 2 EDWARD MANIFOLD STAKES (1600m)

Hopefully Chris Waller decides to run DECLICHY BOULEVARD (4) in this race rather than the Flight Stakes in Sydney as she would be awfully hard to beat after her great second at Caulfield. COMANCHE MISS (6) ran on well in a slowly-run race last time out and will be suited over 1600m. WINGS OF DESIRE (5) is a half-sister to Winx that didn’t have much luck in Sydney last start and could improve. JENNI’S MEADOW (1) will be fitter for her first-up outing.

SUGGESTED BET: Declichy Boulevard to win.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Cavity Bay $14 -$10.

Emerging stayer Point King will shoot for a hat trick of wins when he tackles the Group 3 Bart Cummings at Flemington. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 5: 2.40PM GROUP 2 DANEHILL STAKES (1100m)

Happy to back FIRST SETTLER (4) to bounce back to winning ways after his strong effort behind quality colt Growing Empire at his last appearance. BODYGUARD (2) is unbeaten first-up and has won down the straight. ENEEZA (9) is a consistent filly that is never far away in her races while LOFTY ARCH (8) is a blowout chance after his strong debut win at the provincials.

SUGGESTED BET: First Settler to win/exacta 4/2, 8, 9.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Savagery Vibe $16 – $11.

RACE 6: 3.15PM LISTED PARIS LANE STAKES (1400m)

COMRADE ROSA (9) might go around over the odds here, stepping up to 1400m after not having the best of luck at Caulfield at her previous two outings. ROYAL CHAMPION (1) has better form over further but his best is world class and he has trialled well. IT’SOURTIME (4) has a tricky gate but looks ready for 1400m now while PLENTY OF AMMO (13) is lightly-raced but could handle the class rise here.

SUGGESTED BET: Comrade Rosa each-way

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Jigsaw $6 – $5.

RACE 7: 3.50PM GROUP 3 THE BART CUMMINGS (2520m)

POINT KING (6) is already qualified for the Melbourne Cup but there’s no reason he can’t repeat his Archer Stakes win, especially on firmer footing. POSITIVITY (10) has drawn terribly will be fitter again for her fighting Naturalism Stakes success. BERSKHIRE BREEZE (16) ran on solidly in the Archer Stakes and has drawn to have every chance. VOW AND DECLARE (1) raced wide and boxed on OK in the Underwood Stakes and will relish 2500m.

SUGGESTED BET: Point King to win.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Berkshire Breeze $5.50 – $4.50.

Young Werther could finally break through for his first Group 1 win in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 8: 4.25PM GROUP 1 TURNBULL STAKES (2000m)

This could be the day YOUNG WERTHER (10) finally breaks through for a Group 1 win. He’s in winning form after his first-up win, drops to 55kg and has drawn perfectly. BUCKAROO (2) was dominant in the Underwood Stakes and will be fitter again. WARMONGER (5) closed steadily when resuming in the Makybe Diva Stakes and should improve over 2000m. ATISHU (7) will improve significantly on her last run and worked well on Tuesday morning.

SUGGESTED BET: Young Werther each-way.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Young Werther $11 – $9.50.

RACE 9: 5.05PM GROUP 2 GILGAI STAKES (1200m)

The Gilgai is an open race but I AM UNSTOPPABLE (10) could be prominent on debut for the Ciaron Maher stable after two good Sydney trials while he has a sound straight record. CHAIN OF LIGHTNING (3) wasn’t far away in the Moir Stakes first-up and is a Group 1 winner over 1200m. WA galloper RIPCORD (5) is a talented type that can sprint well fresh. ARKANSAW KID (1) is racing in great form and should go well again.

SUGGESTED BET: Box quinella 1, 3, 5, 10

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: I Am Unstoppable $8 – $6.50.

RACE 10: 5.40PM ROSE OF KINGSTON STAKES (1400m)

LADY IN PINK (13) could be worth a little “Hail Mary” at odds in this even race. She has drawn awkwardly but her recent jumpouts have shown she’s in for a great preparation, POIFECT (8) raced on the speed to score first-up and will be further improved. CASTE (16) can improve significantly with blinkers on and on firmer footing. REVOLUTIONARY MISS (6) wasn’t far away first-up and has drawn to have every chance.

SUGGESTED BET: Small each-way Lady In Pink.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Poifect $7.50 – $6.50.

Originally published as Early look at Saturday’s Turnbull Stakes meeting at Flemington