Best bets and value plays for Saturday’s Sandown Lakeside races
Smart sprinter Mrs Chrissie can return to winning ways while $19 chance could produce a big result for punters in the last race of Saturday’s Sandown Lakeside meeting.
Horse Racing
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News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Blue Diamond Previews meeting at Sandown Lakeside.
BEST BET
MRS CHRISSIE (Race 5, No. 2)
Mrs Chrissie has come back well with two excellent runs this time in. She’ll be tough to hold out late at Sandown.
BEST VALUE
VAGRANT (Race 8 No. 6)
Vagrant closed solidly off a slow speed at Geelong second-up. She’ll be fitter and shapes as though she’s looking for 1400m now.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 4, 5/1, 2, 4, 13, 17/2, 6/2, 3, 6, 10, 11
$100 flexi for 66.6 per cent
BIG6
2, 6/2, 3, 6, 10, 11/4, 5, 8, 9, 10/1, 3, 6/4, 5, 7/3, 8, 9, 13
$100 flexi for 5.5 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 7: 4, 5, 8, 9, 10
Race 8: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
Race 9: 1, 4, 5, 7, 10
Race 10: 3, 8, 9, 13
$100 flexi for 25 per cent
MULTI
Race 1 No. 4 Hola Amigos (place)
Race 2 No. 7 Revelare (win)
Race 5 No. 2 Mrs Chrissie (win)
Current odds $16.38
RACE 1: 12.15PM TI HOME IMPROVEMENT CENTRE HANDICAP (1400m)
Good ground is all but certain for Sandown on Saturday. HOLA AMIGOS (4) chased well at Geelong first-up and rates a great chance to maintain his unbeaten second-up record. MISLEAD (10) fought on well to score at Pakenham and should be in this for a long way. PORTER (8) impressed at Sale and should go well again. LIBERAMI (7) ran on solidly at Flemington and likes 1400m.
SUGGESTED BET: Hola Amigos to win.
MARKET MOVER: Porter $5.50 – $4.60.
RACE 2: 12.45PM SPORTSBET MORE PLACES HANDICAP (1600m)
REVELARE (7) impressed with the easy manner of his Seymour wins and the form out of that race has been sound. STEAL THE SUN (11) ran on well at Flemington on New Year’s Day and is consistent. EUPHEMIA (4) finished well to score when stepping up in class at Wodonga and will be fitter. SIR ATLAS (1) will be fitter for two runs back in and has won a jumpout since.
SUGGESTED BET: Revelare to win.
MARKET MOVER: REVELARE $3 – $2.60.
RACE 3: 1.20PM LISTED BLUE DIAMOND PREVIEW (C&G) (1000m)
A small field of youngsters here but SHINING SMILE (1) has the advantage of race experience and should be strong late. REDDERS (5) has shown plenty of speed in his two jumpout wins and looks set to be competitive. OLATUNDE (4) has been consistent at the jumpouts as has fellow Pakenham-trained colt MENSHEVIK (3).
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 3, 4, 5.
MARKET MOVER: Shining Smile $3 – $2.50.
RACE 4: 1.55PM GROUP 3 BLUE DIAMOND PREVIEW (F) (1000m)
Tough race with the big field engaged but PALM ANGEL (2) has impressed in every jumpout and her only race start. She can overcome the wide draw. MY GLADIOLA (13) has looked a natural two-year-old at the jumpouts and has drawn well. MELROSE (17) has trialled well and can fire fresh. WILTSHIRE SQUARE (4) will be better for her debut second at Caulfield.
SUGGESTED BET: Palm Angel to win.
MARKET MOVER: My Gladiola $7.50 – $7.
RACE 5: 2.30PM LISTED W J ADAM STAKES (1000m)
Looks to be good speed up front here, which will suit MRS CHRISSIE (2), who will be fitter for her two runs this time in and looks suited back to 1000m. FICKLE (6) has earned a crack at this level and should be in this for a long way. PHILOSOPHER (3) went well at Geelong and runs his best races over 1000m. PONDALOWIE (4) is a talented mare with a good first-up record.
SUGGESTED BET: Mrs Chrissie to win.
MARKET MOVER: Fickle $2.80 – $2.50.
RACE 6: 3.05PM LIVE LIFE FOUNDATION PLATE (2100m)
Possibly the toughest race of the day for punters but MISS TARZY (3) is ready to win after two strong seconds over shorter trips. THEDOCTOROFLOVE (11) got the money in three-year-old grade at Flemington and could measure up to this as well. INEVITABLE AWARD (10) relished 1800m at Flemington and is worth thought again. DICTIONARY (2) is racing well this time in and is again worth including.
SUGGESTED BET: Miss Tarzy to win.
MARKET MOVER: Miss Tarzy $6.50 – $6.
RACE 7: 3.40PM THE MARY BELLE (1600m)
ONE LONG DAY (8) underlined his promise with a strong Flemington win and could handle the class rise here. MY BROTHERS KEEPER (10) ran on soundly at Flemington first-up and has drawn well. ASPEN COLORADO (9) did a good job at Warrnambool and will be fitter again. SMOKIN’ PRINCESS (6) is racing in great heart and will again be competitive.
SUGGESTED BET: One Long Day each-way.
MARKET MOVER: Smokin Princess $8.50 – $5.50.
RACE 8: 4.15PM LISTED JOHN DILLON STAKES (1400m)
VAGRANT (6) could provide a surprise result for punters with her Geelong run looking better than it appears on paper. COASTWATCH (3) improved when dropping in class at Wyong and should find this suitable. JUST FOLK (1) has plenty of weight but has won a jumpout since his good first-up fourth at Pakenham. CHORLTON LANE (4) is honest and won’t be far away.
SUGGESTED BET: Vagrant each-way with a saver on Coastwatch.
MARKET MOVER: Aztec Ruler $3.20 – $3.10
RACE 9: 4.55PM GROUP 3 MANFRED STAKES (1200m)
Even race but ROYAL INSIGNIA (7) can measure up to this assignment after two impressive wins and a pair of encouraging jumpouts. TROPICUS (4) drops in class for this and he has performed well at the jumpouts. NDOLA (5) has a terrific turn of foot and races well at 1200m. KIRRIBILLI (10) has the ability to figure in the finish fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Box quinella 4, 5, 7, 10
MARKET MOVER: Band Of Brothers $7.50 – $5.50.
RACE 10: 5.35PM NICK JOHNSTONE REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1200m)
A wide open race to finish VAIL MOUNTAIN (9) could be over the odds after his fighting win at Cranbourne third-up. CARBONADOS (3) is talented on his day and has jumped out well leading up to his first-up run. SUNSHINEINMYPOCKET (8) impressed last autumn and could show something fresh. NEW YORK LUSTRE (13) was an easy Flemington winner second-up and should be respected again.
SUGGESTED BET: Vail Mountain each-way
MARKET MOVER: Overactive $18 – $14.
Originally published as Best bets and value plays for Saturday’s Sandown Lakeside races
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