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2024 The Supernova runner-by-runner form assessments and selections

Racenet’s Clinton Payne presents his tips and form assessment for each of the runners in Saturday’s $1 million The Supernova at Pakenham.

Clinton Payne
4 min read
December 18, 2024 - 5:09PM
Nadal is chasing The Meteorite and Supernova double at Pakenham on Saturday. Photo: Scott Barbour/Getty Images.
Nadal is chasing The Meteorite and Supernova double at Pakenham on Saturday. Photo: Scott Barbour/Getty Images.

The first running of The Supernova has drawn together a classy field of 14 runners for the 1400m contest at Pakenham.

Here is a runner-by-runner analysis of every horse set to line up on Saturday.

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1 – ARKANSAW KID

Been up for a long time and two below par runs, he recaptured some form last time out when a solid and close second in the Group 3 Kevin Heffernan Stakes over this trip. Drawn to get favours and has the services of Victoria’s number one rider Blake Shinn. Weight scale is against him.

VERDICT: Ticks a few boxes.

2 – MUNHAMEK

Classy veteran resuming and he has outstanding fresh stats. Two quiet 800m jumpouts at Flemington in preparation for his return, the latest working strongly through the line. He’s a six-time winner over 1400m and sure to have been targeted at this. Tricky draw to overcome.

VERDICT: Genuine each-way contender.

3 – HERE TO SHOCK

Been freshened since racing below expectations with 62kg in the Big Dance at Randwick on Melbourne Cup Day. Prior to that he won twice and placed second in three starts. His last win was over Gringotts in the $1.5 million Alan Brown over 1400m. One of the best weighted horses in the race.

VERDICT: The horse to beat at his best.

4 – BUFFALO RIVER

This is his ninth run of the preparation and in the previous eight he’s only landed in the placings once. Does excel over 1400m and has the racing style to offset his wide draw but his recent form is inferior to many of his rivals.

VERDICT: Not going well enough.

5 – JUST FOLK

Consistent older gelding but his best form has come on rain affected ground and the forecast doesn’t suggest he’ll get those conditions on Saturday. Resuming from a winter campaign with two jumpouts under the belt. Drawn to get the right run.

VERDICT: Place best.

6 – NADAL

Came from a mile back last start to win the inaugural The Meteorite in emphatic fashion. Lightly-raced gelding that has more upside than most of his rivals. Unproven over the trip but judging by his last performance, 1400m will be within reach. Tricky gate to overcome.

VERDICT: One of the leading chances.

7 – WELWAL

Was having his first start for his new stable when resuming and didn’t let them down, stomping home to win when not expected in betting. Did also win fresh last prep and placed behind the likes of Another Wil in the Doncaster Prelude over 1500m. Drawn favourably and has a good record at the trip.

VERDICT: Has the credentials to mount a case for him.

8 – TUVALU

Proven Group 1 performer that pulled up with a throat issue when midfield as the $2.30 favourite in the Group 3 Kevin Heffernan Stakes last start. Tongue tie goes on this time, proven over the trip and first-up run in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) had merit. Best weighted horse in the race.

VERDICT: Be wary of him.

9 – CHORLTON LANE

Hasn’t spelled since resuming in April but his runs have been spaced and comes into this off a win in a $200,000 Open Handicap over 1400m at Canberra late last month. Does have an exceptional record over 1400m and will get track conditions to suit.

VERDICT: He’s not without each-way claims.

10 – PASCERO

Has only beaten home six of his 51 competitors in his five runs since New Year’s Day. Also has to overcome the outside barrier but is a five-time winner over 1400m and at his best on good ground.

VERDICT: Not going well enough.

11 – ROBRICK

Steps up to 1400m for the first time this prep. Two runs back he closed off strongly over 1200m at Flemington behind Rey Magnerio, running past and beating Nadal. Then last time he was nowhere near as effective when midfield behind Nadal in The Meteorite. Drawn well and Craig Williams jumps aboard.

VERDICT: Not without each-way claims off his Flemington run.

12 – ROOTS

Was good first-up in the Tibbie at Newcastle back in September but her subsequent three runs were below what she’s capable of. Arrives here with six weeks between runs and she looked good winning a recent Sydney trial. Good fresh performer and 1400m is right in her wheelhouse.

VERDICT: She’s hard to catch but capable on her day.

13 – WINDSTORM

He’s been given four jumpouts to fit him up for his first-up run. He’s looked good winning two 1000m jumpouts and was given an easy time in the latest hit out behind Chorlton Lane. Drawn well and is a proven fresh performer.

VERDICT: If there’s to be a surprise, this is the horse.

14 – ROLL ON HIGH

The only horse to have raced and won at the Pakenham track. She’s a three-time winner over 1400m but her recent performances have been below what she’s capable of when on song. At her best on firmer tracks and drawn to get her chance.

VERDICT: One for the First 4 players.

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CLINTON PAYNE’S SUPERNOVA TIPS
1st – TUVALU (No. 8)
2nd – HERE TO SHOCK (No. 3)
3rd – NADAL (No. 6)
4th – WINDSTORM (No. 13)

Originally published as 2024 The Supernova runner-by-runner form assessments and selections

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Original URL: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/horse-racing/vic-racing/2024-the-supernova-runnerbyrunner-form-assessments-and-selections/news-story/2be906b46cca770c5d1694e50a55986e