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THE LAST SAY: Trainer Bjorn Baker’s hot hand on Saturday racing as weather plays havoc around the nation

Three meetings have already been abandoned, with heavy rain making tracks unsuitable for racing. But it won’t stop Bjorn Baker having a massive day. Get the latest track conditions, tips and inside mail right around Australia.

Record 18 'self-trumpeter' votes | $31 Caulfield play | G1 Winterbottom preview

Sydney sprinter Overpass returns to his favourite course and distance for his attempt at a second successive win in the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) at Perth’s Ascot track today.

The weather has been the key talking point ahead of today’s racing, with NSW meetings at Kembla Grange, Wagga Riverside and Coonamble already abandoned after heavy rainfall.

Overpass is the epitome of a track specialist, having had three starts over the Ascot 1200m for three feature race wins including successive wins in The Quokka.

There are more than 40 scratchings at today’s Rosehill meeting, while Doomben – which was rated a Heavy 10 at 7.30am AEDT – is also expected to be heavily affected by scratchings.

It’s a different story on the west coast, however, where Ascot will host the $1.5 million Winterbottom Stakes.

The Bjorn Baker-trained Overpass is so effective at the track that he has been installed as the $3.20 TAB Fixed Odds favourite for the Group 1 1200m test, despite drawing the extreme outside barrier in gate 16.

Winterbottom Stakes runner-by-runner form analysis plus tips

Baker also has a number of big-race chances at various venues on the eastern seaboard including Arapaho, the $4.80 favourite for the Group 2 $750,000 Zipping Classic (2400m) at Caulfield.

At the same meeting, Arapaho’s stablemate Queues Likely ($17) will contest the Group 3 $200,000 Summoned Stakes.

At Rosehill Gardens, Baker has Caballus ($14) in the Listed $200,000 Starlight Stakes (1100m) and Robusto ($17) in the Group 3 $250,000 Festival Stakes (1500m). Their stablemate, Baby Rider, is a $51 outsider for the Listed $200,000 ATC Cup (2000m).

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TODAY’S TRACK CONDITIONS

ROSEHILL GARDENS
Weather: Mild, cloudy day with a very high chance of showers and a forecast top temperature of 25c.
Track: Soft (7)
Rail: True

CAULFIELD
Weather: Cool, cloudy day with a very high chance of showers and a forecast top temperature of 22c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: True

DOOMBEN
Weather: Warm day with showers and a forecast top temperature of 28c.
Track: Heavy (10)
Rail: 4.5m out

MORPHETTVILLE
Weather: Mild, mostly sunny day with showers, the chance of a late thunderstorm and a forecast top temperature of 25c.
Track: Soft (5)
Rail: True

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BE WARY

Rosehill’s rail shifts back to the true today after being out 6m at a midweek meeting on November 13. With showers about and the track already a soft 7, expect riders to steer away from the inside section of the home straight, particularly later in the meeting. It is likely to be the same for Caulfield where the track is back into the good range although rain is forecast, particularly during the afternoon. The rail is back in the true position after being out 6m when the track last hosted a meeting on November 16.

SHAYNO AND DUFF: Tips, race-by-race analysis for Rosehill Gardens today

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ROSEHILL GARDENS TIPS

THE BEST BET

Race 5 No.3 BULLETS HIGH resumed with a brilliant win at Warwick Farm defeating subsequent winner Edited By then was unlucky not to go back-to-back at Rosehill when he finished strongly wide out to just miss behind Battleton over 1500m. It was a similar result at Newcastle when he finished powerfully only to go under narrowly behind Dazzle Legend at 1600m. Bullets High gets out to 1800m today and the “give” in the track suits. This is his chance.

THE NEXT BEST

Race 1 No.6 GALLO NERO is a well-bred colt from Coolmore’s boom young stallion Wootton Bassett out of the I Am Invincible mare Chianti who was purchased for $370,000 at the Magic Millions Yearling Sale earlier this year. From the Team Hawkes stable, Gallo Nero has had two barrier trials to prepare for his debut and looked particularly impressive at Rosehill in a 900m heat two weeks ago when he led most of the way and scored narrowly in good time without ever being put under any pressure from his rider. Gallo Nero looks a natural two-year-old and there has already been good money for him in early betting.

VALUE BET

Race 9 No.18 STATE OF AMERICA goes to the ATC Cup in a rich vein of form after reeling off a hat-trick of city wins, scoring dominantly at Randwick and Warwick Farm by widening margins before his fast finishing win over the Rosehill 2000m last start. State Of America steps up to stakes grade but he does drop 5.5kg. This is his big test but he’s a confident horse with a determined finishing sprint.

THE WHISPER

Race 7 No.5 JEDIBEEL ran very well when resuming, closing late for second behind Dragonstone in the Choisir Handicap. The talented five-year-old has not missed a top two finish at his second run back each preparation, he’s won five races over the 1100m trip and is a winner over today’s course and distance. More importantly, the soft track is ideal for Jedibeel who has three wins and two seconds from five starts in these conditions.

ROSEHILL EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis

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CAULFIELD TIPS

THE BEST BET

Race 3 No.12 ALMA RISE has not missed a top two finish in her six starts, winning three including her impressive win at Flemington over 2000m during Cup Week. She came from well back on the turn with a powerful finishing surge to win by a widening margin of more than two lengths. Alma Rise ran second in the VRC St Leger over 2800m at only her third career start back in autumn so she will have no issues going to 2400m at her fourth run back from a spell. Promising staying mare and can continue her winning momentum.

NEXT BEST

Race 6 No.2 PISCES is an improving Godolphin three-year-old who should be right at his peak after two runs from a spell including a dominant win in the Blue Sapphire Stakes over 1400m here two weeks ago. The way Pisces attacked the line that day indicated he would appreciate getting out to 1600m for the Sandown Guineas. He’s drawn a little wide but that should provide him with sufficient galloping room. The one to beat.

VALUE BET

Race 7 No.3 AIN’TNODEELDUN is fitter for two runs after a long spell and put the writing on the wall last start when he worked home well to finish third behind Light Infantry Man in the Chester Manifold Stakes over 1600m at Flemington on Oaks Day. The Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained Ain’tnodeeldun invariably races well third-up and 1800m is his optimum distance, having won over the trip three times during his career. At near double figure odds, Ain’tnodeeldun is very good each-way value.

THE WHISPER

Race 8 No.3 ARAPAHO only had two runs in autumn then his spring campaign was delayed but after three runs back, he’s ready to strike something like his best form. There was a lot to like about the way he charged home late to be beaten less than a length when fourth to Lindermann in the Craven Plate then again he ran on well when fifth to a rampant Via Sistina in the Champions Stakes at Flemington. Arapaho should finally be ready to show his best form and he is a Group 1 weight-for-age winner over 2400m in the Tancred Stakes.

CAULFIELD EXPERT TIPS: Mark Guest’s race-by-race tips, analysis and quaddie picks

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TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

ROSEHILL GARDENS
Race 1: Gallo Nero $8-$5, Buckeye $8-$7
Race 2: Sir Remlap $5-$2.90, Spiritchaser $15-$7.50
Race 3: Piraeus $4-$2.60, Extreme Freedom $6-$5.50
Race 4: Redbreast $4.60-$4, Drift Net $6-$5, She’s Unusual $6-$5.50 with a bet of $1000 e/w at $6/$2.30, Captain Amelia $15-$10
Race 5: Bullets High $4-$3.80, Harlow Mist $5-$4.80, Morning Sun $6-$5.50, Ring Me Up $26-$11
Race 6: Belvedere Boys $5-$2.50, Knights Armour $26-$14
Race 7: Front Page $5-$4.60, Jedibeel $6-$5.50, Pereille $9-$5.50
Race 8: Mighty Ulysses $11-$9.50, Kintyre $15-$10, Uzziah $15-$10
Race 9: Townsend $4-$2.70, State Of America $11-$5.50 with a bet of $1000 e/w at $8/$2.90, Kettle Hill $18-$8.50
Race 10: Confess Our Dreams $4-$3.50, Eye Of The Fire $8-$4.60, Jewellery $6-$5.50, Iron Man $15-$9.50

CAULFIELD
Race 1: Hiyaam Proud $3.50-$3.40, Nearing Liberty $6-$5, Private Jumbo $7.50-$5.50, Easy Dun $13-$9, Autumn Slide $13-$9.50
Race 2: Tycoon Star $4.60-$4.20, Rosangela $7.50-$6.50, Shinjina $9-$8.50, Point Barrow $17-$9
Race 3: Alma Rise $3.60-$3.20, Quantum Cat $7.50-$6, Divus Romulus $7.50-$7
Race 4: On Display $5-$4.80, Grinzinger Pod $6.50-$6, Miss Altair $18-$13
Race 5: Garza Blanca $7.50-$4.40
Race 6: Bittercreek $5-$4.80, French Ruler $9-$6.50, Somewhere $13-$10
Race 7: New Energy $5.50-$4.40, Charterhouse $12-$7, Keats $16-$11
Race 8: Arapaho $5-$4.20 with a bet of $2000 at $4.40, Naval College $7.50-$7, Berkeley Square $11-$10 with a bet of $5000 for the place at $3.30, Little Mix $17-$11
Race 9: Tuvalu $2.60-$2.50 with a bet of $5000 at $2.50, Arkansaw Kid $8.50-$5, Warnie $10-$9.50
Race 10: Running By $3.40-$3.30, Regal Vow $8.50-$7.50 with a bet of $2200 for the place at $2.90

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INTERSTATE TIPS

DOOMBEN
Race 9 No.1 AMAZING EAGLE
Race 10 No.8 NOBLE DECREE

EXPERT TIPS: Graeme Carey’s best bets, race-by-race analysis for Doomben on Saturday

MORPHETTVILLE
Race 2 No.4 TOP CALIBRE
Race 7 No.5 VEXATIOUS DANCER

EXPERT TIPS: Heath Pope’s best at Morphettville and Aaron Mills’ top selections for Ascot

ASCOT
Race 2 No.6 ROYAL TORONADO
Race 5 No.6 JOKERS GRIN
Race 8 No.2 WESTERN EMPIRE

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

Originally published as THE LAST SAY: Trainer Bjorn Baker’s hot hand on Saturday racing as weather plays havoc around the nation

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Original URL: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/horse-racing/tips/the-last-say-trainer-bjorn-bakers-hot-hand-on-saturday-racing-as-weather-plays-havoc-around-the-nation/news-story/46bf69960e15bfd4ce930260c3ea6ccd