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THE LAST SAY: Tips, market movers ahead of Cox Plate, Spring Champion Stakes day

Is Prognosis just too good? Can Pride Of Jenni lead all the way? These and more questions will be answered in today’s $5 million Cox Plate at The Valley.

Ray Thomas
6 min read
October 26, 2024 - 10:45AM
Hold All Tickets – Punters (Episode 9) 26-10-24

Is Prognosis just too good? Can Pride Of Jenni lead all-the-way? Will Via Sistina give James McDonald his 100th Group 1 win? Or does Broadsiding confirm his emerging superstar status?

These are just some of the questions that will be answered in just over two minutes of what will be compelling theatre in the $5 million Cox Plate (2040m) at The Valley today.

The push for Japanese raider Prognosis is particularly strong and he does bring outstanding form to the big race.

Prognosis is now a firm favourite at $3.60 with TAB Fixed Odds and it will be fascinating to watch him come after the exciting front-runner Pride Of Jenni.

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

But Via Sistina has won three Group 1 races in five Australian starts including her outstanding effort to beat Buckaroo in the Turnbull Stakes last start and is a definite winning chance. The mare could give McDonald a third successive Cox Plate and also provide the jockey with his century of major race wins.

Godolphin’s Broadsiding won’t know himself with only 49.5kg and he does have a powerful finishing burst while Mr Brightside, who went so close to beating Romantic Warrior in the Cox Plate last year, can never be underestimated.

• EXPERT TIPS: Mark Guest’s race-by-race tips, analysis, quaddie picks for Cox Plate Day at The Valley

The Sydney spring carnival continues at Royal Randwick with the Group 1 $2 million Spring Champion Stakes (2000m).

Earlier this week, Swiftfalcon was a pronounced $3.30 favourite but he has eased to $4 as the big money has come for Gloaming Stakes winner El Castello who was $3.90 on Wednesday but is now a pronounced favourite at $3.40.

• EXPERT TIPS: James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Spring Champion Stakes Day at Royal Randwick

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TRACK CONDITIONS AROUND AUSTRALIA

ROYAL RANDWICK
Weather: Mild, sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 21c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: 5m out from the 1600m to the winning post, 3m out the remainder of the course.

THE VALLEY
Weather: Mild, sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 20c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: True.

DOOMBEN
Weather: Mild, partly cloudy day and a forecast top temperature of 24c.
Track: Soft (5).
Rail: 0.5m out entire.

MORPHETTVILLE
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with a slight chance of a shower in the afternoon and a forecast top temperature of 27c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: 6m out from the 1200m to the winning post, 3m out the remainder of the course.

• Broadsiding has ‘catching up to do’ on Anamoe

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BE WARY
The Randwick rail position has moved 5m out from the 1600m to the winning post after being in the true for Everest Day. The track, which raced fairly last week, is a good 4 for today’s meeting and should again provide an even racing surface. The Valley was in the true position for last night’s meeting and again for Cox Plate Day. There is a suspicion riders will want to get away from the inside in the straight given the heavy equine traffic over the track given there will have been 18 races run over the two meetings.

• Berry backs Olentia to rise to occasion in biggest test

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ROYAL RANDWICK TIPS

THE BEST BET
OLENTIA (Race 8 No.5) looked in need of the run when resuming in The Nivison but she showed her class with a brilliant win. Olentia only had one barrier trial going into that race but was still able to demonstrate her impressive powers of acceleration as she came from off speed and reeled in her rivals effortlessly before dashing clear for a comfortable win. She will be improved by that run, her second-up record is good, and she is a winner over the Randwick 1400m course. Bookies are being generous betting about $5 for Olentia. She is the one to beat in The Invitation.

THE NEXT BEST
EL CASTELLO (Race 7 No.1) has won all three races this spring including the Gloaming Stakes last start when he scored with real authority. El Castello will have no problem going to 2000m and his tactical speed gives him a huge advantage as it means he will settle in a forward position in a race that is devoid of tempo. El Castello will be clear of his main rivals coming up the rise and if he accelerates like he did in the Gloaming then he should win again. Noticeably, El Castello has been the big firmer all week and is likely to start favourite on track.

VALUE BET
CABLE EXPRESS (Race 3 No.7) needed the run when resuming at Goulburn, finishing fourth and beaten about two lengths behind Dashing Rupert. Cable Express had the run of the race but seemed uncomfortable inside horses although he was doing his best work on the line. He will be fitter for that run, drawn well in barrier three and drops 4kg. He’s good value at close to double figure odds in a typically open Highway.

THE WHISPER
TERRITORY EXPRESS (Race 9 No.12) ran a blinder when resuming in the Alan Brown Stakes earlier this month. He was back near last on the turn and had to weave through the field but was still able to finish fast for sixth behind Here To Shock. The real merit of Territory Express’s run was his closing sectionals – he reeled off a stunning final 600m of 32.91s including successive sub-11s 200m sectional splits despite having an interrupted run in the straight. He had no luck first-up but his finishing effort suggested he has returned in great order and will be hard to beat in the Five Diamonds Prelude.

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THE VALLEY TIPS

THE BEST BET
POLYMNIA (Race 4 No.7) is a daughter of champion sire Dundeel and although winless in four starts, she is showing considerable potential. She should be at her peak after three runs from a spell including her eye-catching effort at the Sydney midweeks when she powered home late to just miss reeling in Colophon over 1400m. Polymnia is going to The Valley for the first time but she has drawn the inside barrier, James McDonald rides, and she finally gets to 1600m for the first time in her career. She finds herself in a winnable race and just needs luck in running.

NEXT BEST
I AM UNSTOPPABLE (Race 7 No.5) was luckless when resuming, closing fast for second to Hard To Say at Warwick Farm. I Am Unstoppable missed the start, settled back in the field, was following the winner into the straight then had difficulty getting clear galloping room. The Ciaron Maher-trained sprinter was Group 1-placed when second to Ozzmosis in the Coolmore Stud Stakes last year and has only had three runs this year including his first-up effort in Sydney. Fitter now and ready to win.

VALUE BET
PRIVATE LEGACY (Race 10 No.8) is an underrated mare who was Group 1-placed last season in the Australasian Oaks at Morphettville when she flew home for a close second to Vibrant Sun. Private Legacy has been improved by two runs from a spell and indicated a return to winning form is imminent with her fast-finishing second behind Grinzinger Belle at Caulfield. Talented type who will appreciate getting to 2040m today and is value around $5.

THE WHISPER
PROGNOSIS (Race 9 No.2) is all the rage for the Cox Plate. The Japanese raider brings to The Valley outstanding international form, including a luckless second to Hong Kong champ Romantic Warrior in the Queen Elizabeth Cup and his third to Japanese superhorse Equinox in the Tenno Sho last year. If either Romantic Warrior or Equinox was in today’s Cox Plate, they would be a dominant favourite. With Pride Of Jenni certain to set a solid tempo, this will suit Prognosis as he thrives on pace and pressure.

• Inside Story: The Japan trip that made Prognosis’ jockey Damian Lane a superstar

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TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1: Comedy $4.60-$3.40
Race 2: Mogul Monarch $8-$5.50, French Ruler $11-$9, Putt For Dough $15-$9.50
Race 3: Cable Express $11-$9
Race 4: Smashing Time $4.40-$3.20, High Octane $5-$3.50, Amazing Eagle $4.80-$4.40, Don’t Forget Jack $11-$7.50
Race 5: Just Party $3.50-$3
Race 6: Fawkner Park $4.40-$4.20, Democracy Manifest $6-$4.80, Lindermann $8-$5
Race 7: El Castello $3.90-$3.70
Race 8: Magic Time $4.60-$4 with a bet of $3000 at $4.50
Race 9: Yellow Brick $4.60-$3.70, Territory Express $8-$5.50
Race 10: Riyazan $6-$4.20

• BIG BETS: The horses the big punters are targeting in the Cox Plate

THE VALLEY
Race 1: Katsu $5-$4.20, Holy Racket $6-$5 with a $4000 bet at $6
Race 2: Pisces $5.50-$4.80, Winnasedge $6.50-$6
Race 3: Certain Rise $4.80-$3.10 with bets of $2000 at $3.80, $2000 at $3.50, Savagery Vibe $7-$5
Race 4: Polymnia $3.40-$3, Cavity Bay $4.20-$4, Double Market $7-$5 with bets of $2000 e/w at $7/$2.30, $2000 at$5, $1250 e/w at $6/$2.10
Race 5: Second To Nun $7.50-$5
Race 6: Politely Dun $2.80-$2.70, King Of Thunder $6-$5, Vianarra $11-$5.50
Race 7: Oscar’s Fortune $3.40-$3.20, Extra Two $23-$9.50
Race 8: Nugget $6-$4.60, Royal Champion $6-$5
Race 9: Prognosis $3.10-$3.40 with bets of $8600 at $3.50, $2000 at $3.30, Pride Of Jenni $4.20-$4.60-$4.20 with bets of $2200 at $4.60, $2000 at $4.50, Via Sistina $6-$4.60 with a bet of $2000 at $6, Broadsiding $5.50-$6.50 despite a bet of $2000 at $6, Mr Brightside $7.50-$8.50-$8 despite bets of $2000 e/w at $8/$2.30
Race 10: Firestorm $3.70-$2.80, Private Legacy $5.50-$5, Little Mix $8-$7.50

• Tips from the big bookies for Cox Plate Day, Spring Champion Stakes Day

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INTERSTATE MAIL
Doomben Race 4 No.12 NAVYONTHEHIGHWAY
Doomben Race 8 No.14 SCUD
Morphettville Race 6 No.5 ZARKANA
Morphettville Race 8 No.2 PRIVILEGED SON

• DOOMBEN EXPERT TIPS: Graeme Carey’s race-by-race tips and analysis
• MORPHETTVILLE, ASCOT TIPS: Heath Pope and Aaron Mills’ best bets

PROVINCIAL MAIL
Kembla Grange Race 2 No.6 HORIZONS
Kembla Grange Race 4 No.5 GORBACHEV

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners.

Originally published as THE LAST SAY: Tips, market movers ahead of Cox Plate, Spring Champion Stakes day

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