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THE LAST SAY: Tips, late mail for Kembla Grange, Cranbourne, Ascot

Best bets, market movers, inside mail and the latest track conditions … Ray Thomas gives you all the information you need to back a winner around Australia on Saturday.

Ray Thomas
6 min read
November 23, 2024 - 8:05AM
Ray Thomas (inset) gives good chances to Light Infantry Man (top left) in the Railway Stakes, Territory Express (top right) and Gringotts (bottom right) in The Gong and Baraqiel (bottom left) in The Meteorite.
Ray Thomas (inset) gives good chances to Light Infantry Man (top left) in the Railway Stakes, Territory Express (top right) and Gringotts (bottom right) in The Gong and Baraqiel (bottom left) in The Meteorite.

Superstar jockey James McDonald jets into Perth determined to add to his Group 1 tally at Ascot today.

McDonald, who is based in Hong Kong until Christmas, is returning to ride Light Infantry Man in the $1.5 million Railway Stakes (1600m).

The Ciaron Maher-trained Light Infantry Man impressed McDonald when he won the Chester Manifold Stakes at Flemington last start – one of the jockey’s record 11 winners during Cup Week.

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

McDonald rode four Group 1 winners during the Melbourne Cup Carnival on Switzerland (Coolmore Stud Stakes), Atishu (Empire Rose Stakes), Sunshine In Paris (Champions Sprint) and Via Sistina (Champions Stakes) to take his tally for the season to six majors.

Light Infantry Man has now firmed into $4.20 TAB Fixed Odds favouritism for the Railway as McDonald looks to continue his blazing start to the 2024-25 season.

• KEMBLA GRANGE EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for The Gong Day

On the east coast, there’s feature racing at the Kembla Grange and Cranbourne stand-alone meetings while Doomben was called off on Friday due to the very heavy track conditions and continuing wet weather in the Brisbane area.

But Kembla Grange’s track is in perfect order for the Group 3 $1 million The Gong (1600m) in which the Paul Niceforo-trained Territory Express is the early favourite at $4.80 from last-start Big Dance winner Gringotts, who is pressing at $5.

At Cranbourne, the inaugural running of the $1 million The Meteorite (1200m) has Baraqiel at the top of betting at $2.90 but there is good support for $5.50 chance Nadal who – like Light Infantry Man and Gringotts – is from the all-powerful Maher stable.

• CRANBOURNE EXPERT TIPS: Mark Guest’s race-by-race tips, analysis and quaddie selections for Saturday

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TRACK CONDITIONS

KEMBLA GRANGE
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with a forecast top temperature of 28c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: True.

CRANBOURNE
Weather: Warm, cloudy day with the chance of a shower later in the afternoon and a forecast top temperature of 34c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: 3m out entire.

GOLD COAST
Weather: Mild, partly cloudy day with a chance of showers and a forecast top temperature of 26c.
Track: Synthetic.
Rail: True.

MORPHETTVILLE
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with the chance of showers and a forecast top temperature of 29c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: True.

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BE WARY
Kembla Grange raced last Saturday where the rail was out 9m from the 1100m to the winning post. The rail is back in the true position for The Gong meeting today. With the track improving from a heavy 8 on Monday to a Good 4, and with warm weather forecast, there is a likelihood those on speed will be favoured. Cranbourne hasn’t had a race meeting this month so the surface for the Cranbourne Cup-The Meteorite meeting today should be perfect even with the rail out 3m.

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KEMBLA GRANGE TIPS

THE BEST BET
PISANELLO (Race 3 No.4) is chasing a hat-trick of wins. He was brilliant at Warwick Farm first-up then even better at Flemington taking out the closer during Cup Week. The Godolphin sprinter is very progressive and boasts a powerful finishing sprint. Pisanello looks placed to advantage at Kembla Grange and with even luck in running he can maintain his winning momentum.

THE NEXT BEST
TAVI TIME (Race 7 No.3) comes out of the Big Dance where he had the run of the race and tried hard but could finish only fourth to Gringotts. He drops back to a benchmark 88 which was the same class of race he won so easily at Warwick Farm two starts back. Talented five-year-old from the Kris Lees stable and gets in well at the weights after the claim. Tavi Time looks placed to advantage here.

VALUE BET
BOJANGLES (Race 10 No.3) lost momentum at a vital stage in the straight then had to switch course back inside before running on well for fifth to Headwall when resuming over the Randwick 1000m earlier this month. He was entered for Newcastle last week but was scratched when he drew off the track. Bojangles hasn’t fared all that well again at the barriers but the step up to 1200m suits, this is a slightly easier race and he is effective second-up from a spell. Good each way value.

THE WHISPER
GENTLY ROLLED (Race 4 No.2) was second-up and was sent out favourite at Randwick where she loomed up to win but perhaps peaked on her run when beaten less than two lengths. She drops back slightly in grade and is against her own sex for the Kembla race. It is worth noting Gently Rolled has won at her third run back from a spell in her last two preparations and finds herself in a winnable race today.

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CRANBOURNE TIPS

THE BEST BET
OH TOO GOOD (Race 10 No.8) is a promising daughter of All Too Hard who has not missed a top two finish in her six-start career, winning three. She was impressive first-up at Geelong then tried very hard at Flemington when just edged out by Electric Impulse on the line. Oh Too Good is the best-backed runner anywhere today firming from $1.95 to $1.60 55 after bets of $2670 at $1.75, $2500 at $1.90, $2500 at $1.85, $2000 at $1.80. She’s talented and should send punters home a winner in the Cranbourne closer.

NEXT BEST
TIZ INVINCIBLE (Race 7 No.1) has been struggling for 12 months to recapture her good three-year-old spring form that included Group 2 wins in the Furious Stakes and Tea Rose Stakes. She has improved steadily with each run this spring and finally showed something like her best when a close second at Group 3 level at Flemington on Cup Day. Encouraging signs from the Ciaron Maher-trained mare last start and gets her chance to regain winning form in the Pendant.

VALUE BET
LAZY SUSAN (Race 5 No.2) was given the run of the race at Moonee Valley and duly delivered with a strong win at her second run back this spring. She then stepped up to stakes grade and struck a soft track so her well beaten fifth in the Alinghi Stakes can be forgiven. Lady Susan is back in her right grade, drawn well and is back on a firm track. She has firmed from $14 to $9.50 but is still very good value.

THE WHISPER
MOUNT RINJANI (Race 2 No.1) was having only his second start and settled at the rear of the small field but reeled in his rivals to score with authority over 1519m at Moonee Valley. He is getting out to 2025m quickly but the manner of his last start win suggests he will enjoy this trip. Promising three-year-old from an astute stable and can win again.

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TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

KEMBLA GRANGE
Race 1: Lambay $6-$5, Moritz Girl $26-$12
Race 2: Monte Supreme $6-$4.80, Fumiko $11-$8, Direct Fire $11-$9.50
Race 3: Pisanello $2.80-$2.60, Duke Of Bronte $4.60-$3.70, Tristate $8-$7
Race 4: Wooloowin $8-$3.80, Harry’s Bar $8-$5.50
Race 5: Gilded Water $6-$4.80, Be Real $15-$10
Race 6: Blazing Harry $4.60-$4, Midnight Opal $8-$6.50 with a $2000 bet at $7, Heed The Omens $15-$10
Race 7: Tavi Time $4.60-$3.90, Estadio Mestalla $8-$6.50, Chica Mojito $11-$7
Race 8: Territory Express $6-$4.80 with a wager of $1000 e/w at $4.50/$1.87, Steparty $11-$6.50 with a $1000 e/w wager at $7/$2.40, King Of The Castle $15-$8.50
Race 9: Headwall $6-$4.80, Dragonstone $8-$5, Brudenell $11-$9.50
Race 10: Disneck $8-$6, Bunker Hut $15-$6.50, Starman $11-$8.50

CRANBOURNE
Race 1: Romani Ite Domum $4-$2.50, Damehood $4.60-$4.20
Race 2: I Only Wish $11-$7, Verona Rupes $9-$7.50, Kaluakoi $11-$8
Race 3: Ahuriri $3.50-$3, The Genius $3.80-$3.60, Staunch $6-$5.50, Karburan $17-$9.50
Race 4: Dual Pressure $5.50-$5, Overactive $13-$5
Race 5: Trapeze Warrior $5.50-$3.80, Harry Got Styles $8.50-$7.50, Lazy Susan $14-$9.50
Race 6: Nation’s Call $6-$4.20, Savoire Faire $11-$9, Duke Of Condicote $17-$10
Race 7: Tiz Invincible $4.40-$3.90, Marble Arch $9-$6, Floozie $9-$6.50, Brazen Lady $9-$8.50
Race 8: Nadal $6-$5.50, Rey Magnerio $7.50-$6 with a bet of $2000 at $6.50, Arkansaw Kid $9-$8
Race 9: Von Hauke $14-$9.50, Air Assault $16-$10
Race 10: Oh Too Good $1.95-$1.55 with bets of $2670 at $1.75, $2500 at $1.90, $2500 at $1.85, $2000 at $1.80

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GOLD COAST TIPS
Race 2 No.1 FAST DA
Race 7 No.5 MADAM’S PEARL

• EXPERT TIPS: Cameron Happ’s best bets for Cranbourne on Saturday

MORPHETTVILLE TIPS
Race 4 No.2 STARTS NOW
Race 5 No.5 WATCHME WIN

• EXPERT TIPS: Heath Pope’s best for Morphettville and Aaron Mills’ top picks for Ascot

ASCOT TIPS
Race 2 No.4 ROYAL TORONADO
Race 4 No.7 KESHI BOOM
Race 8 No.1 BELCLARE

• LAURIE’S LONGSHOTS: $101 roughie ‘worth a play’ on Saturday, Laurie Sainsbury says

WYONG TIPS
Race 5 No.2 ZEALOUSLY
Race 8 No.7 CANDLEWICK

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

Originally published as THE LAST SAY: Tips, late mail for Kembla Grange, Cranbourne, Ascot

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