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THE LAST SAY: Tips, inside mail, track and betting updates for 2024 The Everest, Caulfield Cup Day

Punters are pouring into Royal Randwick, with a crowd of 50,000 looking likely, while at Caulfield, the sun is out and we’ve already had a track upgrade. Get the latest tips and betting moves on The Everest and the Caulfield Cup.

Ray Thomas
8 min read
October 19, 2024 - 2:20PM
Hold All Tickets – Punters (Episode 8) 19-10-24

Royal Randwick has been rated a Soft 5 for the eighth running of the $20 million The TAB Everest (1200m) and after the first couple of races is playing very fairly.

In overcast weather a light shower came over the track in the first race but has now cleared.

Already a huge crowd is flocking into Royal Randwick and predictions of an attendance of 50,000 is now likely.

Natalija Susnjara enjoys the racing at Royal Randwick today. Picture: Chris Huang / Matrix
Natalija Susnjara enjoys the racing at Royal Randwick today. Picture: Chris Huang / Matrix

For the $20m TAB Everest punters are finding it hard to separate I Wish I WIn and Joliestar who are now joint favourites at $6.

There has been a good move for Godolphin’s Traffic Warden, who will be ridden by Jamie Kah and is into the second line of betting at $7.50 ahead of Bella Nipotina at $8.

Ray is sticking with his top selection, I Wish I Win, to be ridden by Luke Nolen in the most open Everest field ever.

In Melbourne, overnight rain is a distant memory, with the sun shining and the track already upgraded from a Heavy 8 to a Soft 7.

Buckaroo remains a $4.20 Caulfield Cup favourite with Ladbrokes from the well-supported Zardozi ($6.50), Eliyass ($7) and Land Legend ($8.50).

Ray’s tip for the Caulfield Cup is Zardozi, who gets into the race with just 51kg.

A massive crowd enjoys Caulfield Cup Day in Melbourne. Picture: Jason Edwards
A massive crowd enjoys Caulfield Cup Day in Melbourne. Picture: Jason Edwards

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Group 1 winners galore at Randwick, Caulfield

The Everest at Royal Randwick and the Caulfield Cup are the features of one of the great days of Australian racing on Saturday.

There are 36 individual Group 1 winners competing at Randwick (23) and Caulfield (13) – surely a record number of elite horses competing on the same day.

Royal Randwick’s track rating is a soft 5 and will provide a perfect race surface for the bumper 10-race program which boasts two Group 1 races, the $20 million The TAB Everest (1200m) and the $5 million King Charles III Stakes (1600m).

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a member of Racenet iQ and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

The eighth renewal of The Everest has attracted arguably the best field of sprinters in the race’s history including eight individual Group 1 winners. The 12 Everest runners have already amassed a staggering $61.2 million prizemoney.

To underline the sheer quality of The Everest field, the four emergencies are all Group 1 winners and include last year’s winner, Think About It.

On a similar theme, The Everest’s rank outsider is this year’s Golden Slipper winner, Lady Of Camelot, who seems generous odds at $41.

• Clinton Payne’s The Everest tips, runner-by-runner form assessment

The Everest will be a great spectacle but it won’t end there for racing fans with the high profile showdown of Horse of the Year Pride Of Jenni and defending champ Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes.

Pride Of Jenni’s dashing frontrunning racing style makes for an exciting, fascinating watch. Rival jockeys including James McDonald on Fangirl won’t want to allow Pride Of Jenni to get too big a lead which sets up for a thrilling race.

Zougotcha was scratched from the King Charles III Stakes just after 6am as she is likely to be lining up in the Group 2 Invitation Stakes next Saturday.

• Clinton Payne’s King Charles III Stakes tips, runner-by-runner form assessment

The Caulfield Cup has a 55kg topweight and only a 5kg spread to those on the limit but the 18-horse field contains nine individual Group 1 winners so this is a quality – but very even – renewal of one of Australian racing’s Grand Slam races.

Caulfield’s track surface has been downgraded to a heavy 8 after overnight rain, providing a testing surface for the Caulfield Cup.

Muramasa was withdrawn from the Caulfield Cup at 6.30am which means second emergency Berkshire Breeze gains a start, giving champion trainer Ciaron Maher four runners along with Circle Of Fire, Duke De Sessa and Sayedaty Sadaty.

• Clinton Payne’s Caulfield Cup tips, runner-by-runner form assessment

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VALE JOHNATHAN PARKES
Devastating news from New Zealand this morning with the overnight passing of 12-time Group 1-winning jockey Johnathan Parkes. Parkes was the first jockey to be legged aboard The Everest fancy I Wish I Win, steering the then-NZ based, Jamie Richards-trained gelding to victory in a 1200m maiden at Awapuni. Racenet extends condolences to Johnathan’s family and friends.

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ROYAL RANDWICK
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with the chance of showers and a forecast top temperature of 26c.
Track: Soft (5).
Rail: True.

CAULFIELD
Weather: Cool, partly cloudy with the chance of showers, mainly in the morning and a forecast top temperature of 18c.
Track: Heavy (8).
Rail: Out 3m entire.

EAGLE FARM
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with the chance of showers and a forecast top temperature of 33c.
Track: Soft (5).
Rail: Out 6m entire.

MORPHETTVILLE
Weather: Mild, mostly sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 22c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: True.

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BE WARY
The Randwick rail position has moved back to the true after being 3m out on Everest Day. The track, which is bordering on a good 4, raced very fairly two weeks ago and should also provide an even surface for The Everest. Caulfield seemed to favour on-pacers last week but criticism of leader bias might have been an over-reaction. The rail has been shifted out 3m which is usual practice for the Caulfield Cup meeting and the track rating has been downgraded to a heavy 8 this morning.

• Ray & Duff’s The Everest runner-by-runner guide

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ROYAL RANDWICK

THE BEST BET
KIMOCHI (Race 8 No.11) has returned in very good form this spring, winning the Toy Show Quality first-up then enduring a wide run but still showing great courage to finish a close fourth to Southport Tycoon in the Manikato Stakes. Trained by Gary Portelli, Kimochi takes her place in a quality Silver Eagle and is drawn awkwardly in barrier 10 but she is so genuine all she needs is even luck in running to be fighting out the finish.

• EXPERT TIPS: James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for The Everest Day at Royal Randwick

THE NEXT BEST
FRONT PAGE (Race 5 No.3) is chasing a third successive win in The Kosciuszko. He goes into today’s race first-up, just as he did last year when he won easily by two lengths and recording a stunning 1m 8.04s for the Randwick 1200m. He’s only had four starts since, all in Group class, and raced creditably every time and has been set for another first-up The Kosciuszko bid. Front Page has won five of his nine first-up attempts, he was bolting in his recent barrier trial, finishing second to Overpass (who will be hard to beat in the Sydney Stakes), James McDonald has the ride and he’s drawn barrier five. There’s a lot to like about Front Page today.

• Tips, race-by-race analysis: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy have their say on all 10 races at Royal Randwick on The Everest Day

VALUE BET
STEFI MAGNETICA (Race 7 No.6) won the Stradbroke Handicap earlier this year, edging out Bella Nipotina, then resumed in The Shorts and was unlucky not to beat I Am Me. Stefi Magnetica has been kept fresh by trainer Bjorn Baker with a month between runs and she goes into a very competitive The Everest as a definite winning chance. She’s good value at $14.

• Stefi Magnetica goes from country obscurity to chasing history

THE WHISPER
HINGED (Race 4 No.5) hasn’t won since taking out the Group 1 Surround Stakes in February, 2022, but she looks extremely well placed in the Angst Stakes. The Chris Waller-trained mare has been competitive at Group 1 level in a number of races since her last win including her fifth in the Doncaster Mile earlier this year. She has had three runs back from a spell including her narrow loss to the in-form Buckaroo in the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes then wasn’t beaten far in Fangirl’s 7 Stakes. Hinged is back to mares grade today, gets in with 55kg (Blake Shinn is riding her 1kg over) and won’t get a better opportunity to return to the winner’s list.

• ‘There is a little bit of nerves’: Waller ready for The Everest, Caulfield Cup tilts

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CAULFIELD

THE BEST BET
SUGAR COAT (Race 1 No.1) should get punters off to a winning start on Caulfield Cup Day. The Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman-trained Sugar Coat was impressive winning at Pakenham and Seymour to start his career and then led for home before finishing a close second behind Ndola. Sugar Coat was beaten by a promising horse start but finds himself placed to advantage in the Caulfield opener.

• EXPERT TIPS: Mark Guest’s race-by-race tips, analysis and quaddie picks for Caulfield Cup Day

NEXT BEST
ZARDOZI (Race 9 No.13) has improved steadily with each run this spring and was a touch unlucky to lose The Metropolitan narrowly to Land Legend last start. Zardozi’s connections lodged a protest that was dismissed, denying the mare her second Group 1 win. The Godolphin mare won the VRC Oaks last season, she gets into the Caulfield Cup with only 51kg and four-year-old mares have a good record in the race.

• Zardozi, Traffic Warden trainer James Cummings oozing confidence ahead of Group 1 targets

VALUE BET
WAY TO THE STARS (Race 7 No.7) is going to give his rivals something to chase in the Millennium Sprint. There are few horses faster out of the barriers and into stride than Way To The Stars as he demonstrated in the Concorde Stakes two starts back when he led for a long way before finishing third to Everest hopefuls I Am Me and Bella Nipotina. He failed over 1100m in The Shorts last start but drops back to his preferred 1000m trip. Way To The Stars is good value at double figures odds today.

• EXPERT TIPS: Cameron Happ’s best bets for Caulfield Cup Day

THE WHISPER
KILLCARE BEACHGIRL (Race 4 No.5) was second-up in the Edward Manifold Stakes and raced on speed before holding on for a good third to Too Darn Discreet. Killcare Beachgirl will be improved by recent racing and meets her rival better at the weights. Caulfield suits her racing pattern and she will take running down.

• REVEALED: Zac Purton’s gruelling weight loss routine for Caulfield Cup

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TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1: Etna Rosso $6-$3.60 including a bet of $2200 at $6, Stockman $11-$10, Waltham $8-$6.50
Race 2: Too Much Caviar $8-$7, Vivy Air $11-$8.50, I’ve Been Tryin’ $15-$11 with a bet of $2000 at $13
Race 3: Island Dec $8-$5.50 with a bet of $1000 e/w at $8/$2.40
Race 4: Unique Ambition $15-$9.50, Zloties $15-$8, Quickster $15-$10, Watch My Girl $26-$11
Race 5: Far Too Easy $8-$5, Gallant Star $26-$9 with a bet of $1000 e/w at $16/$4
Race 6: Southport Tycoon $6-$4.80 with a bet of $2000 at $6, Arkansaw Kid $15-$9.50
Race 7: Joliestar $7-$6, Traffic Warden $9-$8.50 with a bet of $2000 at $8, Sunshine In Paris $11-$9.50 with bets of $2000 at $11 multiple times, Storm Boy $15-$12, I Am Me $21-$15
Race 8: Ostraka $8-$4, War Machine $15-$8, Port Lockroy $15-$10
Race 9: Pride Of Jenni $2.30-$2 with a bet of $2040 at $2.30
Race 10: Willaidow $3.50-$3.10, Estadio Mestalla $11-$7.50, Behtar $26-$12, Battleton $26-$9.50

CAULFIELD
Race 1: Cataggio $9-$6, Taken $10-$8, Figlio Dargento $17-$11
Race 2: Gallant Son $4.20-$3.40, Lofty Arch $13-$9.50
Race 3: Keeneland $3.30-$2.70, Red Aces $4.20-$4
Race 4: Too Darn Discreet $3.70-$3.40, Jenni’s Meadow $10-$8, Hurry Curry $6.50-$5
Race 5: Isthmus $5-$3.90, Pondalowie $11-$6
Race 6: Tobeornottobe $10-$6.50, Benagil $15-$9.50, Geegees Mistruth $4.20-$3.90 with a bet of $5000 at $4.60
Race 7: Rey Magnerio $4.80-$3.80, Sans Doute $9-$8
Race 8: Plenty Of Ammo $6-$5 with a bet of $2080 at $5, Revolutionary Miss $7.50-$7, Miss Aria $8.50-$7.50
Race 9: Land Legend $9.50-$7.50, Warmonger $17-$11 with a bet of $2000 e/w at $16/$4.80
Race 10: Pinstriped $4.60-$3.20, Gentleman Roy $5-$4.20, Cosmic Vega $18-$15 with a bet of $1500 e/w at $16/$4.40

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INTERSTATE MAIL
Eagle Farm Race 4 No1. JUNIPAL
Eagle Farm Race 10 No.10 ZAKIYYA
Morphettville Race 3 No.1 GOLDRUSH GURU
Morphettville Race 8 No.4 ZEBELLA

• EXPERT TIPS: Graeme Carey’s best bets, value picks, quaddie selections for Eagle Farm today
• EXPERT TIPS: Morphettville, Ascot best bets, featuring a $14 top pick that’s a ‘cracking value play’

PROVINCIAL MAIL
Newcastle Race 1 No.10 WAR RIBBON
Newcastle Race 3 No.1 AKAKA FALLS

• EXPERT TIPS: Greg Polson’s race-by-race tips and rated prices for Randwick, Newcastle

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

Originally published as THE LAST SAY: Tips, inside mail, track and betting updates for 2024 The Everest, Caulfield Cup Day

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Original URL: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/horse-racing/tips/the-last-say-tips-inside-mail-track-and-betting-updates-for-2024-the-everest-caulfield-cup-day/news-story/0ed458b8e4486d29b502954e511a42e7