Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips, analysis for 2024 Festival Stakes day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

Form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses the 10-race card for Festival Stakes day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, providing his race-by-race tips and analysis.

Form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses the 10-race card for Festival Stakes day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, providing his race-by-race tips and analysis.

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RACE 1: 2YO HANDICAP (1100m)

BOMBAY BOOM (2) is the 10th foal of stakes-winner Steflara. A son of Spirit Of Boom, his third dam is My Gold Hope who won a Doncaster and All Aged Stakes. Impossible not to be impressed with his two Heat wins at the Farm, one was on a Heavy 8. Race experience is gold in 2YO races and ICARIAN DREAM (1)’s form looks bankable. Just has to give away weight to the others. BRYANT (3), BUCKEYE (4) and the $1.9 million yearling FERMOY (5) are obvious contenders.

BET: Bombay Boom to win.

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RACE 2: HIGHWAY HANDICAP (Class 2, 1100m)

Trivia time; SPIRITCHASER (6) is a daughter of the 2002 Stradbroke winner, Show A Heart. Spiritchaser’s fifth dam is Wiggle who famously won the 1958 Stradbroke as a two-year-old! This Matthew Dunn-trained mare goes on Good and Heavy; her sole win was on a Soft 5. Country Championship winner Gary Colvin brings the unbeaten CAMBAR (8). This son of Pierata won on debut at Wagga on a Heavy 9. SIR REMLAP (9) was utterly convincing first-up at Scone. In good hands.

BET: Spiritchaser to win, trifecta 1,6,7,8 (boxed).

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RACE 3: MIDWAY BENCHMARK 72 (2000m)

COSMIC LAD (9) has accepted for a race at Canterbury on Friday night. Given the forecast amount of rain, he might be better off there given an inconclusive ‘wet track record’. If it pours, or has poured, TOTOKA (13) could be the one punters hone in one. She has been a ‘prefers sting out’ horse from day one and up to 2000m, barrier one, she might – for once – be within sight of them at the turn. Kermadec can really throw a muddie and we know SONOFDEC (3) can get through it.

BET: Cosmic Lad to win or if scratched Totoka to win and 3,13 quinella.

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RACE 4: FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 78 (1400m)

SHE’S UNUSUAL (10) has likewise accepted for Canterbury on Friday night but the more rain the better with her. Her four runs on Heavy are two wins and two seconds. How Heavy? Well, she won her one and only start in NZ at Awapuni on a 10! Trialling super too. Stablemate CAPTAIN AMELIA (7)’s three wins are all on Good tracks but she did run very, very well indeed one day at Warwick Farm on a 10 so giving her the benefit of the doubt.

BET: She’s Unusual to win or if scratched Captain Amelia (each-way).

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RACE 5: BENCHMARK 78 (1800m)

ZAPHOD (6) is just about the most interesting horse on the card this weekend. Long story short, he is an Irish import who has won 3 from 5 and is 3 starts for 2 wins and a third on Heavy. He beat his muddie stablemate Pier Pressure at his Australian debut at Scone on a Heavy 10 by two-and-a-half – nice work that. BULLETS HIGH (3) has been costly and consistent in equal doses. With a bit of luck, or a longer head, he’d be coming here off a hat-trick. MORNING SUN (1) and Concello have claims.

BET: Zaphod to win.

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RACE 6: COUNTRY CLASSIC (4yo+, 2000m)

MARENARO (13) is a blue-blood of epic proportions being a son of Dundeel and half-brother to Home Affairs. This Dean Mirfin-trained gelding has won from 1500m to 1900m and is just so ready for 2000m now. As for the wet? His Soft form far exceeds his Good track so hoping/suggesting he is going to be okay. GALANO (14), the Snitzel gelding out of Star Fashion, is on trial at 2000m but he is bred to get it. Last run had ‘needs further'’ written all over it. If BELVEDERE BOYS (6) runs the trip, he probably wins.

BET: Marenaro each-way, quinella 13,14, trifecta 4,6,13,14 (boxed).

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RACE 7: LISTED STARLIGHT STAKES (1100m)

I like CONTEMPORARY (3) as much as for the jockey than the horse tomorrow. Let’s just assume that this is a fast run Starlight and Contemporary is back and has to come last – probably widest. Who else would you want on him in that scenario than Jason Collett? Dual Kosciuszko winner FRONT PAGE (1) has drawn barrier 3 and under normal circumstances, you would say that’s a winning draw for him. How is the track playing though? HARD TO SAY (2) has won 8 on Goo, none of Soft or Heavy.

BET: Contemporary to win.

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RACE 8: GROUP 3 FESTIVAL STAKES (1500m)

TANNHAUSER (15) is my Ingham horse in a few weeks time. The Chris Waller-trained son of Dundeel loves Randwick, he loves the Randwick Mile and he’ll be ready to peak third-up off a Queensland Derby preparation. That said, I know he has a few things against him on paper in the Festival but he is too much of a personal favourite to let go around at these odds. Dual Everest placegetter PRIVATE EYE (1) was infinitely better in The Hunter than it reads on paper. MIGHTY ULYSSES (2) has won 2 from 3 on Soft. Only Heavy 10 run was fourth in the Hollindale.

BET: Tannhauser each-way, Tannhauser to win and place in The Ingham (Fixed Odds), DD 1st Leg (15), 2nd leg (10).

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RACE 9: LISTED ATC CUP (2000m)

LITTLE MIX (12) may well be off to the Zipping Classic on Saturday. If so, attention turns to FLOATING (15) who was, IMHO, the eye-catcher in The Big Dance, passing a fair few in the straight to be within six of Gringotts. The Matthew Smith-gelding followed up with a fantastic second on a wickedly bias track at Newcastle. Loves the slop. Unbeaten at 2000m. HEZASHOCKA (3) probably wanted 2000m already when he was in The Big Dance. Gets that now and his preferred (wet) conditions.

BET: Floating to win (best bet).

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RACE 10: BENCHMARK 78 (1100m)

JEWELLERY (10) has a really compelling set of numbers for this; First-up, trip, wet and best of all maybe is the draw. From barrier 5, she can get to wherever it happens to the best part of the track by now – if there is one. CONFESS OUR DREAMS (5) has won 5 from 9 thanks to some typically spot-on Brad Widdup placement not to mention the horse’s own speed and courage. If we got to a Heavy 8 or 10 even, KOTE (4) might be worth a second and third look.

BET: Jewellery to win, Kote to place.

Originally published as Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips, analysis for 2024 Festival Stakes day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday