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Shayne O’Cass and Ron Dufficy’s tips for 2024 Festival Stakes day at Rosehill Gardens: $10 best bet

Ron Dufficy is keen to back a runner priced at double figure odds on 2024 Festival Stakes day at Rosehill Gardens. Get Ron and Shayne O’Cass’s best bets and race-by-race tips and analysis.

Shayne O’Cass
10 min read
November 29, 2024 - 3:42PM
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Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Shayne O’Cass and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the chances in all 10 races – including the Festival Stakes – at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

Ron Dufficy (left) and Shayne O'Cass.
Ron Dufficy (left) and Shayne O'Cass.

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DUFF’S BEST BET
Race 8 No.4 CHRYSAOR

SHAYNO’S BEST BET
Race 9 No.15 FLOATING

• EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for 2024 Festival Stakes day at Rosehill

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R1: RANVET HANDICAP (1100m)

Ron Dufficy: Obviously working on a wet track, Shayno. I think ICARIAN DREAM (1) has the form on the board. She was very good in The Golden Gift. I know she has to give them some weight here but if she handles the going, I think she is very hard to beat. GALLO NERO (6) has an awkward draw but does have some gate speed and he was much better, moving well, winning his second trial. FERMOY (5) is a huge query. Was just not let go in two trials and is beautifully bred and obviously has talent. And BUCKEYE (4), he’s had his couple of trials. He beat a horse that ran well at Newcastle during the week in the trial so he has to be considered.

Shayne O’Cass: That horse you alluded too from Newcastle Duff is Offenbach who was runner-up to my pick here BOMBAY BOOM (2) in that November 8 heat at Warwick Farm. Given the likelihood of a wet track today, it is worth noting that Bombay Boom won a trial there nine days prior on a Heavy 8. Like the 3 draw for him and Jason Collett’s been there with him all along. I concur, race experience is gold and ICARIAN DREAM (1) has Golden Gift form. Reckon BRYANT (3) can catch the eye late.

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R2: TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100m)

Ron Dufficy: Tricky as far as there is not too much Highway form here but I think there’s a couple of promising ones and CAMBAR (8) is one. He was terrific, wet and dry, in two runs last preparation. Nice trial leading into this and I think he is right in the finish here. The other talented horse is SIR REMLAP (9). He’s a lightly-raced four-year-old who was great winning his Country Maiden on Soft ground first-up and he’s in good hands and well fancied in the market. SPIRITCHASER (6) has been set up with two trial wins in Queensland so has to be respected from the Matt Dunn yard. And MISS REBEL (3) is the other one. Nice mare doing a good job and appears pretty sharp.

Shayne O’Cass: This could be Highway number 39 for Matthew Dunn. That’s incredible. Dunn saddles up SPIRITCHASER (6) here Duff and just to satisfy the pedigree buffs, let me point out that her fifth dam is Wiggle who the Stradbroke while still a two-year-old. Wow. Speaking of Queensland, Spiritchaser’s two trials wins up there have her ready and able to post an albeit infrequent win today. Maybe it could turn out that those two ‘two starters’ you mentioned – CAMBAR (8) and SIR REMLAP (9) – turn out to be the best horses to come out of this Highway. I reckon if there was a massive blow-out, it is HOLD (10). I like her on Heavy.

• TIPS FROM THE BIG BOOKIES: Winterbottom Stakes, Zipping Classic and Festival Stakes day edition

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R3: MIDWAY HANDICAP (2000m)

Ron Dufficy: Not a strong race so I am leaning toward the three-year-old with no weight, TOTOKA (13). Her best run was on a Soft four starts back and I thought she was pretty good in the wrong part of the track in the Spring Stakes last start so I’m just gambling on her to improve. EXTREME FREEDOM (5) has had a busy schedule but is very fit and has better formlines than most in this race. PIRAEUS (1) would have been the clear top pick on a dry track. Just inconclusive, his only Heavy track run, so just have to penalise him a little. PATRIKA MIST (4) finds a race she could do something in. She can find a position here with no speed in the race does have lovely soft track form.

Shayne O’Cass: Working on the assumption that COSMIC LAD (9) is out, all roads lead to TOTOKA (13) for me too Duff for all of the reasons you outlined. I can’t forget her Canterbury win early on and everything she has done before and since has said take me to 2000m. I could even see her in an Oaks and such in 2025, a wet Queensland winter preferably. SONOFDEC (3), well he ran in the Queensland Derby this year, but as for Saturday, he has been building up to, and desperately seeking, 2000m. Kermadec can throw a muddie and Sonofdec seems happiest on Soft and Heavy.

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R4: PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1400m)

Ron Dufficy: I quite liked the trials of SHE’S UNUSUAL (10). She’s moved very well, with something to offer, has great wet form, has great fresh form and I think she is ready to go. DRIFT NET (11) sets up beautifully third-up, handling the conditions, should run well. PIPPIE BEACH (5) has been a bit one-paced but her best run was winning on a Soft 7 four starts back so maybe she can find some form again. And CALLISTEMON (14) is warming up to do something; she has been running on nicely in two runs back.

Shayne O’Cass: Ditto for me Duff with SHE’S UNUSUAL (10). I was hoping it would rain for her and it looks like it will. Just for the record, she has raced on Heavy tracks four times for two wins and two seconds. I’ve never been to Awapuni Duff but I am tipping when it is a Heavy 10 there, it’s wet, and She’s Unusual beat them easily that day – on debut. Agree big time with CALLISTEMON (14). If not this time, then it is the next.

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R5: CHANDON GARDEN SPRITZ HANDICAP (1800m)

Ron Dufficy: I like BULLETS HIGH (3). I know he has been a beaten favourite at his part two starts but I just think he has got more to offer. He finds a faster race here and although learning all the time, I think it is a beautiful race for him. HARLOW MIST (10) won well at Newcastle; got all the favours and found the right part of the track but she is still on an upward spiral. MORNING SUN (1) was easy in the market but really impressed at the midweeks first-up winning at 1800m so I can’t see him going backwards. And JAMBEROO (4) ran a much improved race in The Little Dance going hard and sticking on well.

Shayne O’Cass: Have to steal your ‘huge yard and market watch’ phrase Duff and slap it on this fascinating Irish-bred now Novocastrian, ZAPHOD (6). What a great little record he has. Five starts for three wins and a third. But what captured me was that he won on debut in Tipperary on Heavy over 1810m. He won his Australian debut at Scone over 1700m on a Heavy 10 beating his new stablemate Pier Pressure. Can’t knock BULLETS HIGH (3), he could have come here with three straight wins on the board with a longer neck.

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R6: TAB COUNTRY CLASSIC (2000m)

Ron Dufficy: I think BELVEDERE BOYS (6) only has to run 2000m to go close to winning. That’s the only gamble, if he can run the distance out, but he has had a lovely set up, three runs back and is ready to go and hard to beat. DANCES WITH HOOVES (15) is quite capable. She had good support in a stronger race last time before pulling up with the thumps so be forgiving there. FAY’S ANGELS (7) is just a good, tough competitor and in a country race, she certainly is worth a second look. And KNIGHTS ARMOUR (3) has been up a while but he keeps running nice races and I think a senior jockey like Kerrin McEvoy may switch him into action.

Shayne O’Cass: MARENARO (13) is an interesting horse. He was sold as a yearling for $540,000 back in the day on account of being a Dundeel half to Home Affairs. Fast forward to more recent times and this ex-Waller trained gelding is with Dean Mirfin whose record with the horse is six starts, a Dubbo second and a Highway win. It is plain to see that Marenaro prefers the sting out and that being the case Duff, I think we have to mark him ‘up’ for that pretty honourable run here in a 72 over 1800m. GALANO (14) doesn’t scream ‘muddie’ but she should be on pedigree and she should run out 2000m on pedigree too.

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R7: STARLIGHT STAKES (1100m)

Ron Dufficy: I quite like that form out of the Choisir Stakes and I think PEREILLE (10) wasn’t suited there when they slowed up mid-race but hit the line hard with improvement to come and is very hard to beat. JEDIBEEL (5) out of the same race is in a similar situation. It just wasn’t run to suit him as well and he gets an opportunity with a nice second-up form. CONTEMPORARY (3) won the Heavy first-up last preparation at 1200m. The trials have been good. OUR KOBISON (4) is a little query first-up on the wet but we know he is more than capable and can run time.

Shayne O’Cass: If it rains – a lot – we could lose a few of the speed horses here up towards the top, maybe OUR KOBISON (4), maybe even HARD TO SAY (2), who knows. It will still be a fast run race, plenty of pressure up front, which will suit my pick here – CONTEMPORARY (3). I just love those numbers Duff; 21 starts for 6 wins and 10 placings and a few of those wins have been absolute barnstormers which brings me to the jockey, Jason Collett. Nobody gets the timing right, more often, that him IMHO. Dual Kosciuszko winner FRONT PAGE (1) seems well drawn on paper unless for some reason, it is not.

• EXPERT TIPS: 17 form analysts give their top 3 selections plus betting strategies for Saturday’s Winterbottom Stakes, Festival Stakes, Zipping Classic

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R8: FESTIVAL STAKES (1500m)

Ron Dufficy: I am quite keen, each-way, on CHRYSAOR (4) here Shayno. He can be tough to follow, I concede that but he won first-up on the Heavy at Flemington and then I thought he was really good back in distance in The Hunter last start, making ground in the wrong part of the track. So 1500m at home, I think is worth a gamble. PRIVATE EYE (1) is definitely good enough if he puts his mind on things. I think Nash back on to stand over him with help immensely. XIDAKI (7) is the other big improver with great soft track form and his Silver Eagle run was great before contesting a very strong Golden Eagle. And ST LAWRENCE (6) is in a winning frame of mind now and these Ciaron Maher horses are putting plenty of wins together at the moment.

Shayne O’Cass: I have a great respect and liking for TANNHAUSER (15). I hope they run him here, even though it is wet and he has drawn wide. It could be that both of those things are in fact an advantage on the day. I know he like the wet and I know he needs to have a good clear crack at them late. I could even back him in The Ingham Fixed Odds before this race. PRIVATE EYE (1) has placed in two Everests and he was good late, good enough anyway, in The Hunter.

• Portelli mulls Kintyre tactics as wet Festival looms

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R9: ATC CUP (2000m)

Ron Dufficy: I am with TOWNSEND (14). He was just too good. He is untapped. Both runs back have been great and he is going to be hard to run down. So if I am tipping him, FLOATING (15) has to go in. He was second to him the other day and he has got great wet track form and a touch better off at the weights. HEZASHOCKA (3), we know his go in life is a wet track so he finally gets one as does STOCKMAN (11). He has been waiting for ages for a softer track.

Shayne O’Cass: Sometimes the numbers tell it better than words can Duff. Enter FLOATING (15). Fives run on Heavy for a win and four placings, three of them seconds and is unbeaten in both 2000m runs. I agree, he was fantastic behind TOWNSEND (14) at Newcastle. Right with you on HEZASHOCKA (3). He wants 2000m and he wants it wet.

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R10: KIA ORA PRAGUE HANDICAP (1100m)

Ron Dufficy: I like the way CONFESS OUR DREAMS (5) is going. She is much stronger this preparation; 1100m is no problem for her now and she rides the speed, that little bit of weight increase has been off-set with the three-kilo claim. She’ll be hard to run down again. JEWELLERY (10) is trialling up really nicely. She is a big yard and market watch late here. IRON MAN (7), well he is an iron horse at the moment Shayno, he just keeps backing up and having excuses going down so finally he gets back onto a softer track which really suits him. And best of the rest I thought was EYE OF THE FIRE (15) who impressed at midweek standard first-up, finishing off strongly.

Shayne O’Cass: JEWELLERY (10) for me here Duff for all the points you make. The Kembla Heavy 8 might be very significant by now if all that rain came. Under normal circumstances, they’d just fall into ‘obvious’ line here; CONFESS OUR DREAMS (5), DOLLAR MAGIC (9), IRON MAN (7) but if we get to a bottomless 10, could KOTE (4) burst back into the winner’s stall? Yep.

Originally published as Shayne O’Cass and Ron Dufficy’s tips for 2024 Festival Stakes day at Rosehill Gardens: $10 best bet

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Original URL: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/horse-racing/tips/shayne-ocass-and-ron-dufficys-tips-for-2024-festival-stakes-day-at-rosehill-gardens-10-best-bet/news-story/a483e356235f3c229b315a4eb6318f1d