Rosehill Inside Mail: Ray Thomas’s tips for 2025 Tancred Stakes Day

He loves wet ground, he settles in a forward position and James McDonald is on board. What’s not to love about Ray Thomas’s best bet for 2025 Tancred Stakes day at Rosehill Gardens?

Trainer Marc Conners is lukewarm on asking Willaidow to back up in the $4 million Doncaster Mile even if his stable star wins at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

Willaidow lines up in the Group 3 $250,000 Racing And Sports Doncaster Prelude (1500m), with the winner is guaranteed a start in next Saturday’s Doncaster Mile at Royal Randwick.

But Conners feels Willaidow might be better suited being saved for a Queensland winter carnival campaign aimed at the Stradbroke Handicap.

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“It is unlikely he will go to the Doncaster,’’ Conners said.

“To be truthful, I think it is going to be too hard a race. I haven’t seen a Doncaster this strong for years.

“I feel it would be better to freshen him up and go to Queensland. I think the trip away would benefit him but we will get through Saturday first.’’

Willaidow, narrowly beaten by Iowna Merc in the Ajax Stakes two weeks ago, is the $5 TAB Fixed Odds favourite to win the Doncaster Prelude.

What a fight! 👊

Iowna Merc gets the nose down to win in a photo finish for the @BBakerRacing stable! 🙌 pic.twitter.com/wWfIVNGwKK

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) March 15, 2025

Conners said Willaidow had trained on well since the Ajax Stakes and was at his peak going fourth-up into the Prelude.

“He’s in great order,’’ Conners said. “He’s done super and looks so fit and healthy.

“If we get the rain that is forecast, I’m not worried because I feel this horse goes better on wet ground.’’

Champion jockey James McDonald will ride Willaidow for the first time this preparation, having won three races on the gelding last spring.

“James likes the horse and it is good to have him back on,’’ Conners said.

“Although Willaidow has drawn wide (barrier 13), we can’t do anything about it and I will let James worry about that.’’

There will be some scratchings from the Doncaster Prelude as a number of entries were entered for Friday’s Muswellbrook Cup, so Willaidow will come in a few starting positions and Conners added the gelding had good early tactical speed.

• EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

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ROSEHILL BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS
Race 1: Tenderize $6-$5 with a $2000 bet at $5, Piraeus $15-$7, Everyone’s A Star $15-$10
Race 2: Nepotism $3.60-$3 with a $2670 at $3.10, Sanctified $8-$6, Next Jen $11-$8
Race 3: Pocketing $15-$8, Format $11-$9
Race 4: Ceolwulf $1.90-$1.65 with bets of $3000 at $1.75, $2500 at $1.80, $2350 at $1.85, $2220 at $1.90
Race 5: Arctic Glamour $8-$5, Harlem Queen $8-$7, Snow In May $8-$7
Race 6: Treasure The Moment $1.70-$1.60 after some big bets including $5000 at $1.70, $4720 at $1.60, $3333 at $1.65 and $2860 at $1.70
Race 7: Uncommon James $11-$6, Brudenell $8-$6, General Salute $11-$6.50
Race 8: Dubai Honour $3.80-$3.20 including a bet of $2000 at $3.80, Vauban $4.60-$4 with a $2000 bet at $4
Race 9: Amenable $8-$5.50, Scarlet Oak $8-$7.50, West Of Africa $11-$8.50, Encap $11-$9.50
Race 10: Thunderlips $11-$7.50, Well Timed $11-$8.50, Bojangles $11-$8.50

• Expert tips and betting strategies: Tancred Stakes, Vinery Stud Stakes, Australian Cup

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EARLY QUADDIE
Race 3: 4,8,11,12
Race 4: 1,7
Race 5: 2,4,7,15
Race 6: 1,2,7

QUADDIE
Race 7: 1,2,4,13
Race 8: 1,2,3,4
Race 9: 1,2,6,10
Race 10: 1,9,11,13

• V’landys considers stepping down from one of two major roles

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PRICE CHECK

CEOLWULF (Race 4) and TREASURETHE MOMENT (Race 6), the two hottest favourites on the Rosehill program, are also the best backed with TAB Fixed Odds. Ceolwulf has firmed from $1.90 to $1.65 after some big bets including $3000 at $1.75, $2500 at $1.80, $2350 at $1.85 and $2220 at $1.90. Similarly, there is confident support for Treasure The Moment who has tightened from $1.70 to $1.60 after consistent support including bets of $5000 at $1.70, $4720 at $1.60, $3333 at $1.65 and $2860 at $1.70.

Epsom winner Ceolwulf with a huge run wins the G1 King Charles III Stakes in front of a record crowd at Randwick!@PrideRacing | @SchofieldChad@aus_turf_club | @WorldPoolpic.twitter.com/28oRVnurKS

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 19, 2024

• ‘Great race for him’: Ceolwulf to stamp QEII credentials

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TRIAL POINTERS

PULCHRITUDINOUS (Race 5), winner of the Group 1 New Zealand Oaks last season, had only the one run during spring where she was well beaten but her two barrier trials this campaign indicate the mare is back to something like her best. She did catch the eye in her most recent trial when finishing hard for a close second over 1030m at Rosehill last week. Pulchritudinous resumes in the Emancipation Stakes and although 1500m is short of her best, she is coming up well and is expected to be running on strongly.

It may not be the easiest name to say but Pulchritudinous won the G1 New Zealand Oaks with ease@Riverrock_NZ | @KarakaChat | @HighviewStudpic.twitter.com/qfN4YtIigi

— Trackside NZ (@TracksideNZ) March 16, 2024

RHAPSODY CHIC (Race 10) has been given two quiet barriers trials to prepare for his return. The Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained sprinter has been keen to go faster in both heats but they have set him up for his return in the Rosehill closer. Rhapsody Chic has a very good first-up record and is primed to sprint well fresh.

A cool ride from @nashhot sees the @FreedmanRacing trained Rhapsody Chic storm home and knock off the favourite 🏇💨 pic.twitter.com/aSx1KQErHm

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) July 6, 2024

• Rosehill Turf Talk: Stars align on a $12 J-Mac mount

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SECTIONAL STARS

DECLICHY BOULEVARD (Race 6) was inconvenienced by a slow early tempo but she rocketed to the line to finish third in the Phar Lap Stakes two weeks ago. Declichy Bouelvard unleashed a final 600m in a brilliant 32.23s, the fastest closing sectional of the day. Movin Out ran fourth in the same race and ran a 32.3s final 600m.

.@cwallerracing and @TommyBerry21 start the day off on a winning note, with Declichy Boulevard at Warwick Farm!@aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/krAcKpmKat

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 5, 2024

VAUBAN (Race 8) resumed in the Sky High Stakes over 2000m and he impressed with his fast finishing effort to run down Arapaho near the line. The true merit of Vauban’s win is reflected in his closing speed – he ran the final 600m in 33.3s which is exceptional at the end of a 2000m race.

Vauban knocks off Lindermann in his first race since the Melbourne Cup! 💥@GaiWaterhouse1pic.twitter.com/t3lbRz73Oa

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) March 15, 2025

• Clinton Payne’s Tancred Stakes tips, runner-by-runner form analysis

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BEST BET

WILLAIDOW (Race 9) won the Southern Cross Stakes when resuming, had excuses when fifth in the Liverpool City Cup then was narrowly beaten by Iowna Merc in the Ajax Stakes over the Rosehill 1500m course last start. He returns there for the Doncaster Prelude with James McDonald back in the saddle. Willaidow is having a good preparation, he’s peaking at his fourth run back, handles wet tracks and will settle on speed in a controlling position. There’s a lot to like about Willaidow in the Prelude, he’s the one to beat.

Willaidow digs deep to win the Southern Cross Stakes in a photo! 📸 @[e-mail]/XRZd4oFPcj

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) February 1, 2025

• ‘She should be 3/1 on’: Dubai Honour trainer’s Via Sistina compliment

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VALUE

ARTIEBETT (Race 1) is only fifth emergency so she needs luck gaining a start in the Midway but if she does, then expect her to run a very good race at huge odds. She was held up in the straight but then ran on strongly late for a close third to So Good So Cool in a Midway here two weeks ago. The step up to 1300m suits Artiebett, she has only 52kg, her best form is on heavy tracks, and she is great each way value at $31.

• Racing Confidential: To sell or not to sell? That is the Rosehill question for ATC members

Originally published as Rosehill Inside Mail: Ray Thomas’s tips for 2025 Tancred Stakes Day