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Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass’ Rosehill Gardens tips, race-by-race analysis for Saturday: $2.80 best bet

Ray Thomas thinks a Chris Waller-trained gelding can extend James McDonald’s lead in the Sydney jockeys’ premiership, while Shayne O’Cass is keen on a classy import on debut in Australia.

Racenet
10 min read
July 19, 2024 - 11:00AM
Pure Alpha wins at Randwick on July 6. Ray Thomas has made the Chris Waller-trained gelding, to be ridden by James McDonald, his best bet of the day at Rosehill on Saturday. Picture: Jeremy Ng / Getty Images
Pure Alpha wins at Randwick on July 6. Ray Thomas has made the Chris Waller-trained gelding, to be ridden by James McDonald, his best bet of the day at Rosehill on Saturday. Picture: Jeremy Ng / Getty Images

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass analyse the 10-race card at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

Ray Thomas (left) and Shayne O'Cass.
Ray Thomas (left) and Shayne O'Cass.

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RAY’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST
Race 4 No.1 PURE ALPHA

VALUE
Race 8 No.13 TESTATOR SILENS

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SHAYNE’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST
Race 6 No.1 SIVKA BURKA

VALUE
Race 5 No.9 MISS JENNIFER

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Race 1: 2yo Handicap (1200m)

Ray Thomas: This is a small field of two-year-olds but what an interesting race to start the day, Shayno. I’m leaning to MAWJOOD (2) who comfortably defeated subsequent winner Tarpaulin at Warwick Farm. Mawjood was three-wide without cover and still proved too good. There is a lot of noise about the unraced Justify filly MERGEILA (7) from the Chris Waller stable. MAYFAIR (3) was backed off the map on debut but bumped into a smart colt, Brave One. He could easily control this race from the front and prove tough to run down. SENSATIONAL WIND (8) trialled like “Phar Lap” earlier this month and is one to watch. I’ve left out Getafix and even Carnegie Hill and both can run very competitive races.

Shayne O’Cass: Phar Lap – he he. But I concur RT with SENSATIONAL WIND (8)’s trial. She is bred to be good being by I Am Invincble out of Gust of Wind, who was the last horse to ever beat Winx, by the way. No wonder it cost $1.1 million at Easter. I could easily see her and MERGEILA (7) in all those good three-year-old fillies’ races next season. Loved her trials. MAWJOOD (2) won like a good horse at the Farm but outside gates in small fields worry me.

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Race 2: TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2, 1100m)

Thomas: PALAZZO PRINCE (5) created a huge impression starting his career with wins at Scone and Dubbo – the latter an incredible effort – before his fourth in a TAB Highway at Rosehill in February. Perhaps he had just come to the end of his campaign that day and he resumes without an official barrier trial. I’m taking him on trust because he is loaded with talent. ZARIZATYCOON (7) has led throughout for impressive wins at Narromine and Mudgee. He is coming back slightly in trip but he also looks very promising. CONSENZA (2) and topweight LISZTOMANIA (1) are both right in this race.

O’Cass: This is a very good Highway, RT, and the reason is those horses you just rattled off. I think of them will win but who? ZARIZATYCOON (7) is a half-brother to Tags who technically was a Country Championship Finalist. The way this big son of Zariz goes, he would be an ideal horse for the Qualifier next year. KING LARRY (6) is similarly unbeaten in his two runs. Wayne Wilkes has plenty of Country Championships experience and I imagine King Larry is his top seed for 2024 even this far. The proven horse in the race is LISZTOMANIA (1) but the draw makes it a tougher ask.

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Race 3: Midway Benchmark 72 (1300m)

Thomas: SILVANITO (2) has been left with too much to do in successive Rosehill races before running on from the back of the field to finish second to Captain Furai and then Elouyou over 1400m. It’s taken two smart types to beat him in recent weeks and the form out of those races has stood up. He has drawn well in barrier five and James McDonald is a significant booking. NAVY BLOOD (1) is also racing in good form, coming from well back on the turn to finish in the placings in successive Midways. He’s a fit colt racing well. DIAMOND MODEL (4) hasn’t been very competitive at her three runs since resuming and is ready to win. Herb is another genuine sprinter racing in good form and is over the odds.

O’Cass: UNION ARMY (15) is a dual acceptor. Me? I thought this was the perfect race for the son of Rich Enuff. He is one for one at home at Rosehill, he has placed two of three fresh and he is a winner at the trip. I am not too worried about the draw, I suspect he goes back and has last crack. Perry Mason couldn’t have made a better case for SILVANITO (2), RT. I agree with everything you said. Paul Perry has two horses in at Rosehill on Saturday that both interest me at odds, NOSEY PARKER (3) (good, late first-up) here and Forecaster in the last.

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Race 4: Benchmark 72 (1500m)

Thomas: PURE ALPHA (1) had to do plenty of work from an outside barrier at Randwick which left him a sitting shot for the promising Rhapsody Chic. He’s drawn to get the right run this time and is yet to miss a top two finish. IMPOSANT (9) really savaged the line at Newcastle and is an improver. HEADLEY GRANGE (2) has had an extended campaign this winter but is holding his form, possibly even producing a career-best last start scoring over a mile at Warwick Farm. Drawn awkwardly which gives Pure Alpha the advantage. INFLUENTIAL (6) found the heavy track against him first-up but he’s got ability and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a much improved race.

O’Cass: Pretty keen to say yes to CARRAZANA (4) unless the market says no. He’s a very nice 1400m to 2000m prospect from here on. It is purely a case of whether he is ready to win first-up and the fact that it is 1500m, at home, makes me think he might be. It certainly makes it possible. HEADLEY GRANGE (2) has a neat record; four wins and three placings from 10 starts. ‘Career best’ was the first thing that came to mind for me as well in reference to his win at Warwick Farm. PURE ALPHA (1) is too consistent to leave out. IMPOSANT (9)’s win at Newcastle was emphatic albeit in an easier race.

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Race 5: 3yo+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 78 (1200m)

Thomas: This race sets up perfectly for JEWELLERY (4). She’s having a very good winter campaign and with a bit of luck could have won at least another two races. Drawn barrier two so should be able to find a position closer to the speed than she has at her last two Caulfield runs. LLANDDWYN (8) responded to a rails-hugging ride and she finished strongly to win well at Canterbury. This is harder but she is racing in very good form. WILD BOTANICA (7) hasn’t had a lot of luck this campaign but is racing well and there is some stable confidence about her chances. MISS JENNIFER (9) could settle in the front half from her inside draw and she does have a strong finishing sprint.

O’Cass: MISS JENNIFER (9) has been fantastic her four runs for Danny Williams. She won the first two, one of those was a Highway, and she measured up big time in a couple of Benchmark 78s after that. Her ‘problem’ is that she has been giving away some hefty headstarts but as you said, RT, there is an option to be a little closer on Saturday from a better draw and up to 1200m again. I am not giving up on OUR BELLAGIO MISS (5). I still think there is a win coming for her at good odds. She does no work from barrier one, she will just need an ‘out’ in the straight. MOLLY NAILS (6) ran a hundred times better than seventh of 10 in the Sheezanalister/Wild Botanica race at Randwick last start. Four of her five wins are at 1200m and she races well here at Rosehill.

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Race 6: Schweppes Handicap (1100m)

Thomas: IN FLIGHT (9) seems to be getting better with racing. She’s won four of her five starts this winter and is chasing her fourth in succession here after a dominant effort at Randwick under 60kg last week. She drops 7.5kg and is suited by the soft track conditions. She’s up in grade but can win again. IOWNA MERC (3) has been costly this campaign but finds himself in an easier race and should be in the finish. JEDIBEEL (7) doesn’t know how to run a bad race and CONTEMPORARY (2) was very impressive at Randwick. The query runner is former French galloper SIVKA BURKA (1) who is a stakeswinner overseas and is trialling well for Ciaron Maher.

O’Cass: Query for you RT, best bet for me. SIVKA BURKA (1), as you mentioned, is a stakeswinner in France. That was over 1400m, this is 1100m with topweight and a wide draw so there is a bit against in that respect. The trials were outstanding and the booking of James McDonald sealed the deal. Market watch essential. The whole day is McDonald versus Nash, certainly this race is one of them. Nash is on CONTEMPORARY (2) here; he is three rides for two wins and a placing. Has the race fitness and local experience-edge on the French mare. Can never rule out KEY LARGO (5) ambushing them all late!

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Race 7: Benchmark 78 (2400m)

Thomas: STRATHTAY (1) has been a staying find this winter. He followed an easy win at Rosehill before finishing fast wide out to win at Randwick over 2000m two weeks ago. Strathtay should enjoy getting out to 2400m and the 3kg claim for apprentice Benjamin Osmond means he’s not badly in at the weights. AGE OF SAIL (2) and LOCO (5) ran the minor placings behind Strathtay last start and there is every chance this trio will run the trifecta again. GULF OF MEXICO (10) chased home Strathtay at Rosehill last start and the Irish import is a big improver.

O’Cass: Same trifecta for me only slightly different, RT. I very much agree that STRATHTAY (1) beat LOCO (5) and AGE OF SAIL (2) on their merit(s) last start. It was aided by a great ride by Jay Ford it must be said. I don’t for one minute suggest a son of Preferment like Strathtay is, won’t run 2400m but it is worth noting that two of Age Of Sail’s three career wins are at that trip and of course Loco was fourth in the SAJC Derby.

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Race 8: Listed Winter Challenge (1500m)

Thomas: The final Sydney stakes race of the season, Shayno. I’m with TESTATOR SILENS (13) each way. He’s on the back-up after a luckless effort at Randwick last week when he seemed to resent the blinkers, was slow away, settled back at the rear of the field, was in an awkward spot on the rail at the 400m and struck trouble in the straight before surging late for fifth behind WAR ETERNAL (11). The blinkers have been removed, he’s well drawn in gate three and can run well at odds. War Eternal was very good last week and drops 5.5kg here. KING OF THE CASTLE (6) was beaten less than a length when third in the Winter Stakes at Randwick and he is working up to a win. TAMERLANE (1) has his share of weight but he was very good last start and will be hard to beat again.

O’Cass: James McDonald again for me RT. He’s on CHARTERHOUSE (3) for Ciaron Maher. I went back and had a look at this horse’s run in The Ingham and it was very good. Sure, he ran 10th of 20 but he was a mile off them at the turn and was only beaten four lengths. He just gets too far out of ground but if things go his way, he is clearly good enough to win a Winter Challenge. Obviously KING OF THE CASTLE (6) was the luckless runner in the Winter Stakes behind TAMERLANE (1). Same draw this time, barrier 4, that’s gold. WAR ETERNAL (11) is racing as well as he ever has. I forgot he ran fourth in a Randwick Guineas behind Converge and Anamoe!

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Race 9: Benchmark 88 (1300m)

Thomas: ELSON BOY (8) has been one of the finds of winter racing, Shayno. He was on a six-race winning streak including his defeat of Testator Silens over the Rosehill 1300m course before he beat all but a rampant Contemporary at Randwick. He’s well drawn, has early tactical speed, should settle on the pace and will be tough to run down. CHORLTON LANE (3) was nearly six weeks between runs when he had excuses at Caulfield. He’s well placed here and looks hard to beat despite having to shoulder his share of weight. WITH YOUR BLESSING (9) has worked his way back to fitness and form. ROBUSTO (1) usually needs a run or two to find his best but his two trials have been good and he does go well on his home track.

O’Cass: Last time I looked, James McDonald had a winning strike-rate for Ciaron Maher of 34.2 per cent. Wow. He’s a few of Maher’s on Saturday, CHORLTON LANE (3) being one. He (Chorlton Lane) has some very compelling numbers as a two-time Rosehill winner, one of those at this trip. Far and away, the most important numbers on his resume are his four wins and three placings on Good track. It might not be Good on Saturday, but it won’t be Bad. A firm, or at least firmer, track is also a pre-requisite for FELIX MAJESTIC (6), who trialled like a bomb at Randwick subsequent to his Heavy 8 ‘failure’ last month. CUBAN ROYALE (4) has won 10 races and placed 15 times, he’s a marvel and racing with zest.

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Race 10: 3yo+ Colts, Horses and Geldings Benchmark 78 (1200m)

Thomas: WILLAIDOW (7) made it four straight when he won over this course and distance last preparation before running some competitive races in stronger grade than this before a spell. He looked very sharp in a recent Warwick Farm barrier trial win, drawn the rails and James McDonald rides. There’s a lot to like about him, Shayno. I’m interested in LORD OF BISCAY (10) at huge odds. He showed ability in Europe and his two trials since joining the Kris Lees stable suggest he has got something. I’ll be watching to see if there is any market confidence for him at his Australian debut. ABLE WILLIE (2) will be finishing fast and IRON MAN (17) has trialled well since an impressive first-up Canterbury win.

O’Cass: We will know by now if the ‘run on’ horses are able to win. If that is the case, SMASHING EAGLE (14) might finally be able to post an overdue but well-earned win. You know him as well as I do RT, he is very one-dimensional, but he can run a split that would end up the fastest 200m of the day. As I alluded to earlier, I have Paul Perry’s FORECASTER (16) marked down as the best roughie of the day. Too short, too heavy for him first-up. He is a massive improver at massive odds.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass’ Rosehill Gardens tips, race-by-race analysis for Saturday: $2.80 best bet

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Original URL: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/horse-racing/tips/ray-thomas-and-shayne-ocass-rosehill-gardens-tips-racebyrace-analysis-for-saturday-280-best-bet/news-story/af09e110be86c54e6c0093b769ec05ac