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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, preview for The Hunter Day at Newcastle

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy analyse all 10 races on The Hunter Day at Newcastle on Saturday, presenting their tips and best bets.

Ray Thomas
9 min read
November 15, 2024 - 12:34PM
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Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the chances on the 10-race The Hunter meeting at Newcastle on Saturday.

• EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips, analysis for The Hunter Day at Newcastle

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DUFF’S NEWCASTLE TIPS

BEST BET
Race 4 No.4 BULLETS HIGH

NEXT BEST
Race 5 No.2 WATCH MY GIRL

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RACE 1: MAX LEES CLASSIC (900m)

Ron Dufficy: I am not confident about this race as yet but I am leaning to A BAR IN PARIS (5). She’s looked the sharpest at the trials to my eye and I think the 900m should suit her best. Godolphin has always targeted a horse they like at this race. Enter SECRET GLORY (8) who hasn’t been let go in her two trials so she is a big watch. GOOD HOTSPUR (3) was much better at his second trial, in steady time though. GOBI DESERT (6) is a well-bred filly trained on the track who could well be an improver.

Ray Thomas: I like A BAR IN PARIS (5), too. She’s by Rubick and shaped very well in her only barrier trial where she matched motors with Gimcrack Stakes runner-up O’ Ole before finishing a close second. A Bar In Paris showed natural speed in her trial and shapes as one of the hardest to beat in an even race. GOBI DESERT (6) is superbly bred by Broadsiding’s sire Too Darn Hot out of Hell It’s Hot, the dam of dual Group 1 winner In Her Time, and she’s also impressed in her recent Scone trial. BUFFALO (1) sped away to win his trial at Newcastle and no surprise to see good support for him in latest betting. Godolphin’s SECRET GLORY (8) has had two trials to prepare for her debut and the stable usually targets this race.

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RACE 2: BELLA GROUP MIDWAY HCP (1600m)

Dufficy: I am leaning to HARLOW MIST (5). She is peaking third-up in a suitable race and is obviously popular with Nash Rawiller on from a good draw. PIRAEUS (3) has come back really well, charging to the line, and whether he wants a touch further than this now, I am not sure but the big Newcastle straight will suit him. DREAMDEEL (6) looks to get a cosy little time up front and has returned well. MAGNATEAR (8) was very good first-up after a long spell and has to be considered.

Thomas: HARLOW MIST (5) ran on strongly to finish a close fifth in the Four Pillars and will appreciate getting to the bigger track and over this trip. PIRAEUS (3) loomed up to win the Four Pillars but was worried out of it by Kingston Charm. He’s racing well and gets his chance. MAGNATEAR (8) ran well first-up and can only be improved.

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RACE 3: TAB HIGHWAY (1600m)

Dufficy: Typical tricky Highway. I know CABLE EXPRESS (3) rises 2.5kg but he’s got the inside draw and his second-up win at this distance was good. He is lightly-raced and he has got scope to keep improving. BRAVELY (4) is on trial at the distance but is fit now and it was a good run in a Highway last start. BANDASHA (2) is primed third-up with a claim and an acceptable draw. Just going to a mile to for the first time is a little question mark. TANGLEWOOD JIMMY (18) had specking at big odds last start and his run was excellent, making up a heap of ground.

Thomas: In an open race, the consistent WANDA RIVER (5) at each way odds rates as one of the contenders. He’s drawn to get the run of the race and comes off a tough win at Coonabarabran in a class 3 last start. CABLE EXPRESS (3) got all the favours at Randwick but showed plenty of determination to win. He starts out of the rails barrier and will get his chance again. BANDASHA (2) settled on speed and tried hard at Eagle Farm when a close second last start which puts him right into contention for this race. BEST OF MAHER (8) scored successive wins at Muswellbrook and is suited around this trip.

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RACE 4: LEGEND MILE (1600m)

Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on BULLETS HIGH (4). He is a nice horse, still learning his trade, and is ready to put his best foot forward. If there is a worry, maybe it is the tempo of the race. I can’t see much speed which I think he might need. HIGH DANDY (2) was a total forgive last start, running into dead-ends after a slow start all the way down the straight. FOR VICTORY (5) usually lifts second-up and he has been well tried in early markets. KOKORO (8) did a good job in The Little Dance at big odds and if he reproduces that, he is in the mix.

Thomas: BULLETS HIGH (4) came off an impressive first-up win at Warwick Farm when he made his run wide out and was unlucky when Battleton got through along the inside to snatch victory near the line at Rosehill last start. He’s returned to racing in top form and will go close again. GALANO (9) was strong through the line at Muswellbrook, increasing his margin over the chasing pack and should make his presence felt. FOR VICTORY (5) ran on well when resuming and although he finished fifth, he was within two lengths of the winner on the line. He’s effective second-up and should be in the mix. CAPTAIN FURAI (6) has disappointed in both runs this spring but is capable of winning this race if anywhere near his best.

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RACE 5: SEED PEOPLE CONSULTING HCP (1400m)

Dufficy: I like WATCH MY GIRL (2) here, I am pretty keen on her. She was very good putting two together prior to being up in class last time and not disgraced. So, back to 1400m is a plus, I think she is hard to beat. MELODY AGAIN (3) is a very reliable mare who never runs a bad race and she looks good each-way odds. PIPPIE BEACH (5) had her chance but battled on well last start and maps well again, although I think she is short enough in the market. CALLISTEMON (9) wasn’t bad first-up over an unsuitable distance and both wins have been here at Newcastle.

Thomas: PIPPIE BEACH (5) trailed the winner, Elettrica, into the straight and looked set to sprint straight past that horse but couldn’t bridge the gap on her rival, going under by less than a length. Pippie Beach had every possible chance last start but is drawn to get all the favours again in a winnable race. TERRESTAR (6) couldn’t get into the race behind Lekvarte in the Angst Stakes but is in her right grade here. LADY ICHIKAWA (10) has attacked the line strongly to win successive races at Newcastle in recent weeks.

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RACE 6: TRANS TASMAN TROPHY (1850m)

Dufficy: I like FLOATING (3). Forgive last start, giving too much start, he loves this track and should put his best foot forward today. GLAD YOU THINK SO (10) should get a good run in transit here and he is third-up at 1850m which should suit him nicely. ROGUE BEAR (8) is trained here and gets a charmed run from an inside draw. HOPEFUL (2) has the right form if fancied so keep an eye on the market with him.

Thomas: FLOATING (3) got too far back early and was never in the contest when only 12th behind Gringotts in the Big Dance. This race is easier and sets up better for the grey who had been in good form prior to his last start loss. TOWNSEND (5) was Group 1 placed as a two-year-old but only had one run last season before resuming last month and running a blinder to beat all but Sounds Of Heaven. He can only be improved by that comeback run and looks likely to be in complete control up front. HOPEFUL (2) hasn’t won for more than two years but ran second in three stakes races when last in work and he looked impressive winning a Warwick Farm barrier trial. GLAD YOU THINK SO (10) is fitter for two runs from a spell and will appreciate getting out over further.

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RACE 7: SPRING STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: ALABAMA STATE (2) has had a busy schedule but he is handling it well. No luck last start in The Four Pillars and he has come up with the perfect draw here. I think he is hard to beat. ALTHOFF (1) has been building up to something and he was much better at a mile last time. Obviously a nice race for him but he can be a little one-paced. TITANIUM MISS (6) is going great in harder races and is quite likeable although untried at this distance. SNITZANOVA (8) is an improving, well-bred filly from the right stable who surged through the line winning her city maiden last start.

Thomas: ALABAMA STATE (2) came out of barrier 18 and was never on the track but ran bravely to be beaten less than a length when fourth to Kingston Charm in the Four Pillars at Rosehill. He’s finally drawn a barrier and should have no issues at 1600m. This is his chance. ALTHOFF (1) hasn’t been far away in stakes races at his last two starts and if anything this looks easier. FRENCH RULER (4) charged home from back in the field to finish a close second in a Midway at Rosehill. Emerging three-year-old who is not out of his depth here. THE THREE HUNDRED (3) has struck a rich vein of form and deserves his crack at this level.

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RACE 8: THE HUNTER (1300m)

Dufficy: The price factor alone here has me leaning to PRIVATE EYE (1). He is $7 or $8 in what is a perfect race for him. He hasn’t won in a while, I concede that, but he has just got the right formlines and he has run in all the big races so I have to give him a good winning chance here. FAR TOO EASY (4) needs luck from his draw but he is absolutely flying this preparation. He was dominant in the Kosciuszko. BRIASA (14) should be unbeaten but wow, he is very, very short – $2.90 – in a field like this so just the price factor has swayed me off him. It looks a target race for ROYAL MERCHANT (5) and the good draw, mapping well, she certainly should be considered.

Thomas: BRIASA (14) has won five of his six starts and was in cruise control winning with ease at the Kensington midweeks. He drops 4kg here although this is a significant rise in grade. Briasa is very promising and although he is short enough in betting, he is the one to beat. FELIX MAJESTIC (12) is very underrated and racing well without winning this spring. The drop back to 1300m suits him and makes his own luck on speed. He’s over the odds. FAR TOO EASY (4) was brilliant in The Kosciuszko and is the deserved favourite. Awkwardly drawn but is very versatile and just needs a bit of luck to be in the finish. PRIVATE EYE (1) is a dual Group 1 winner of more than $11.7 million and might just prove too good for this field.

• Clinton Payne’s 2024 The Hunter runner-by-runner form analysis, tips

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RACE 9: THE BEAUFORD (2300m)

Dufficy: I think WYCLIF (5) was very good in the St Leger and outstanding back in distance last time so he sets up very, very well here and he can stay. The danger I think is NAVAL COLLEGE (3). He was excellent first-up beaten a length and a half there and he usually lifts dramatically second-up. The Kiwi DIONYSUS (5) is a huge query. Roger James wouldn’t be coming to Sydney unless he was confident and he was better up in distance last time so he is a dangerous horse here. STOCKMAN (7) finally found some form last start and if he holds it, he is certainly well in a race like this.

Thomas: WYCLIF (5) deserves a good win after two narrow losses in the St Leger and Rosehill Gold Cup. His last start effort was outstanding as he was dropping back from 2600m to 2000m and was badly held up in the straight before charging home to just miss reeling in Fawkner Park. HERMAN HESSE (2) won success stakes races including the Herbert Power Handicap and then ran competitively in the Geelong and Bendigo Cups. If anything this is easier and he stays under notice. SPIRIT RIDGE (1) ran a blinder first-up when he made Lindermann work hard to beat him in the Craven Plate. He’s got his share of weight but he’s a tough stayer. STOCKMAN (7) ran his best races for ages when finishing fast wide out for fourth, beaten less than a length in the Rosehill Gold Cup which is the right form for this race.

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RACE 10: AUSURE INSURANCE NEWCASTLE HCP (1300m)

Dufficy: A difficult race but I love the way UZZIAH (17) has come up. With a featherweight on his back here and a good draw, he will settle right on top of the speed. He wasn’t suited back in distance second-up after winning well first-up and I am happy to go his way. FLYING CRAZY (5) ran well in a strong race first-up, the Russell Balding, and that has to be good form for this. INHIBITIONS (13) is third-up now and he did win at the same stage of his preparation last time in work. ASTERO (3) is ready to bob-up again and he is down a little in grade at a more suitable distance.

Thomas: UZZIAH (17) was very impressive leading throughout to win at Randwick when resuming and ran on well for third to Tristate at Rosehill last start. This is a tougher race but he drops 6.5kg, he’s drawn well in barrier four and is terrific each way value. FLYING CRAZY (5) ran a very good race in the Russell Balding Stakes behind Bella Nipotina, he’s in his right grade here, has won second-up and is a winner over this course and distance. BOJANGLES (15) ran well first-up and will improve but the wide barrier is a leveller. BATTLETON (9) scored a deserved win last start and could go right on with it here.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, preview for The Hunter Day at Newcastle

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