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Ray and Shayno: Randwick best bet ‘bred to be special’

By a world champion sire out of a Galaxy winner, Clear Thinking was bred to be special. Can she continue her unbeaten run at Randwick on Saturday? Ray Thomas is firmly in the ‘yes’ camp.

Ray Thomas
10 min read
July 5, 2024 - 2:18PM
Punters Hold All Tickets 2024 (Episode 44) 06-07-24

The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Shayne O’Cass analyse the 10-race Winter Stakes meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

Ray Thomas (left) and Shayne O'Cass.
Ray Thomas (left) and Shayne O'Cass.

RAY’S BEST BET
Race 4 No.10 CLEAR THINKING

RAY’S BEST VALUE
Race 8 No.10 FLYING CRAZY

SHAYNO’S BEST BET
Race 2 No.6 INVADER ZIM

SHAYNO’S BEST VALUE
Race 7 No.5 OUR BELLAGIO MISS

• MORE EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James ‘The Guru’ Molony analyses the Randwick card

• SATURDAY MARKET MOVERS: $13 to $5 firmer at Randwick

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R1: Petaluma Hcp (1100m)

Ray Thomas: I was impressed by the barrier trial win of CARNEGIE HILL (4) at Randwick last month. He showed good tactical speed and cruised clear of his rivals to win by a comfortable margin without being extended. Carnegie Hill is making his debut here and strikes a heavy track but there was a lot to like about his trial, Shayno. BRAVE ONE (3) wasn’t let go in his recent Rosehill trial win but was strong to the line. MAYFAIR (6) comes off two recent Randwick trial wins and the stable has had extraordinary success with their two-year-olds this season. No knock on WINNING PROPOSAL (1). She’s not the biggest filly and has her share of weight here but she’s so genuine.

Shayne O’Cass: Here’s my read, RT: If WINNING PROPOSAL (1) can carry the 59kg and the fence isn’t totally off (bearing in mind it is race one), then she might well be too good here. That said, there is a second proviso and that is are any of the first starters better than her? Possibly. If there is indeed one that is, I suggest it is BRAVE ONE (3). Trials are good, he is a stunning horse to look at and he traces back to Wrap Around and Beach Gown via some very talented mares. Respecting MAYFAIR (6) and CARNEGIE HILL (4) of course.

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R2: Robrick Lodge Eremein Hcp (1300m)

Thomas: Ciaron Maher has a strong hand in this race with LADY BOSS (5) and UNTIL VALHALLA (2). Lady Boss, winner of three of her four starts, resumed with an impressive effort at Canterbury when she ambled up to the race-fit Exceed Perfection on the turn and sprinted by to win by more than two lengths. She handled the heavy track well that day and will only be fitter. INVADER ZIM (6) was spelled after an impressive win at just his third career start at Rosehill back in February. He’s had a couple of quiet trials leading into this and is one to watch. Until Valhalla is hard to knock coming off a convincing win by nearly three lengths from Emmadella and Nanshe. Both placegetters have since won to frank the form. CHEVRON (1) has the talent but might need a drier track.

O’Cass: INVADER ZIM (6) is a lightly-raced Chris Waller trained gelding who went out for a spell off a big win at Rosehill back in February. His two trials have contained considerable hidden merit. He has a huge pedigree behind him – his dam is a Kingmambo half brother to the Hong Kong superstar Vengeance Of Rain and it doesn’t stop there. Concur big time with your take on the two Maher horses. The form does read well for UNTIL VALHALLA (2) and as for LADY BOSS (5), she just keeps clearing the bar every time she is asked. Big watch on the gelded MANWE (4).

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R3: Midway Hcp (1200m)

Thomas: IRON MAN (8) has always shown ability but he has come back a superior racehorse on the evidence of his first-up win at Canterbury, Shayno. He showed a very impressive burst of acceleration to reel in the leaders. He’s coming back slightly in trip which is off-set by the heavy going which he handles well. DELEXO (2) bumped into a talented horse in Compelling Truth at Dubbo but this is more suitable and he will run well. NAVY BLOOD (1) is on the back-up after beating all but Emmadalla in a Midway last week. NINGALOO STAR (5) has been disappointing twice since winning with ease at Kensington but she is a capable mare on her day.

O’Cass: THE EXTREME CAT (11) finished midfield at Warwick Farm first-up on June 9 in quite a strong midweek 64 on the Heavy 8 that day. He was only beaten two and half lengths and was good late. The extra 100m will aid his cause and he does have a decent second-up record. NOSEY PARKER (6) is a Paul Perry-trained son of Choisir and is known for his big finish. Randwick, 1200m first-up, two trials with exceptional Soft tracks numbers – he could be the one to swoop late. IRON MAN (8)’s biggest win, in terms of margin, was on a Heavy 8.

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R4: TAB Highway (1200m)

Thomas: Can’t wait to see CLEAR THINKING (10). She has looked exceptional in her two Scone wins and now is confronted by a class 3 TAB Highway field with some tough, seasoned sprinters. By world champion sire Dubawi out of former The Galaxy winner Sweet Idea, Clear Thinking is bred to be special and she does look particularly promising. She handles heavy tracks and is drawn to get the gun run. I think she wins again. NIPOTINO (3) is an under-rated sprinter but there was no fluke about his last start win on this track. TANGLEWOOD (1) can improve here and SYRIAN STAR (5), who chased home Nipotino the other day, deserves consideration.

O’Cass: Counting the minutes to this one RT. Questions will be asked here of CLEAR THINKING (10) for the first time in her brief but spectacular career. We’ve all seen her dominance in those two Scone wins and she could be one of those Highway horses like say, Clearly Innocent and Art Cadeau, that goes to a much higher level. With all that said, I am not sure I’d rush out and take odds-on against some of these old hard-heads. Me? I’d be happy to be with SCOPICS (4) at $4.20 the place. He’s a CDRA Qualifier placegetter and was huge in the May 25 Highway. Can’t wait for this.

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R5: Task Hcp (2000m)

Thomas: Didn’t STRATHTAY (7) put his rivals to the sword last start! He is up in weight here but that was such a dominant win and his jockey, Jay Ford, is also in a rich vein of form. AGE OF SAIL (2), the former English galloper, got to the line well first-up at Eagle Farm to place behind Princess Rhaenys who has since won at stakes level. A son of all-time great Frankel, Age Of Sail is a definite improver. KAPAKIRI (6) is on the quick back-up after a solid effort last week and he’s working his way into form. PERFECT PLAY (5) is very consistent and bursting to win a race.

O’Cass: You just mentioned AGE OF SAIL (2) as being a son of the all-time great Frankel, RT. Can I add that Age Of Sail’s dam is a half-sister to another all-time great in Lammtarra! I like the horse a lot here on the weekend but one thing puzzles me and that is 13 of his 16 starts are on Good tracks and the other 3 on synthetic. Is that by chance or by design? The funny thing is, the horse is bred to swim. KAPAKIRI (6) has some terrific numbers here at Randwick, over the trip and on Heavy. Waller-trained horses on the back-up strike seem to more often than not. Big watch on LOCO (8). He had ‘next time’ written all over him at Canterbury.

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R6: Thank You ATC Members Hcp (1100m)

Thomas: JEDIBEEL (2) and MOGO MAGIC (2) clashed at Canterbury nearly a month ago with the former finishing powerfully to win well. Mogo Magic does meet Jedibeel better at the weights here but is that enough to turn the tables? They should run the quinella again and I’m leaning slightly to Jedibeel. ONE DESTINY (8) has never raced in better form and will be competitive again. ZARAGOZA (11) is a nice horse in the making and it will be interesting to see how he goes first-up. Shayno, I know you are very keen on TRISTATE (3).

O’Cass: I am RT. I just think that Anthony Cummings has found the perfect race for the son of Headwater and the rain has only boosted their winning prospects. TRISTATE (3) has run in some very strong races and he was his own worst enemy in a few of them in the early days but let’s not forget that he finished third to Home Affairs and Paulele in a Heritage Stakes. ZARAGOZA (11) was going to run at Kembla on Thursday but it was washed-out. This is harder of course but everything this horse has done in the past (and his trials) indicate ‘Saturday ability’. JEDIBEEL (1) and MOGO MAGIC (2) have each won five races in not a lot of starts and that is not easy to do in the Benchmark era.

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R7: Racing For Good On July 13 Hcp (1100m)

Thomas: WILD BOTANICA (8) led for home and fought on well to be beaten less than a length into third behind In Flight and One Destiny at Rosehill. Both In Flight and One Destiny have since won, underlining the strength of the form. Wild Botanica handles heavy tracks and will take catching. SHEZANALISTER (1) won three straight over summer in fast time but she is very effective on wet tracks. She’s had two trials and is ready to sprint well fresh. MOLLY NAILS (7) is fitter now and will be hard to beat.

O’Cass: I have been keeping a good eye on OUR BELLAGIO MISS (5) lately, RT, and I respectfully suggest that she is going a lot better than her form says. She was in a Birthday Card Stakes behind Chain of Lightning back in May and as for her past two runs, both were at Randwick where she was good late in strong races. One more thing – she is an absolute muddie. MOLLY NAILS (7) is pretty fast for a Tavistock with Zamazaan and Sound Reason on her mother’s family-line! One other thing to take note of is that she is one-for-one on Heavy and chased home ‘your’ Iron Man at Canterbury. Yes to WILD BOTANICA (8) and had it been a Good track, ALICIA ROMA (4) was a moral … but not now.

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R8: Winter Stakes (1400m)

Thomas: Shayno, I want to be with FLYING CRAZY (10) each way. He ran a blinder to just miss behind Excelladus at Randwick – King Of The Castle ran third – then he had no luck when unplaced in the Civic Stakes at Warwick Farm. He was hopelessly held up from the top of the straight and never got a clear crack at them. Flying Crazy will appreciate getting back to the bigger Randwick track, he handles heavy and is way over the odds. IKNOWASTAR (3) is very genuine but has to come back slightly in trip which is the only negative. KING OF THE CASTLE (7) is working his way into form and rates highly. ESSONNE (5) is under-rated also at generous odds.

O’Cass: I can’t recall KING OF THE CASTLE (7) running a bad race since he came over from New Zealand, RT. I can remember him running a lot of good races including his fourth in The Big Dance. He opened this campaign with a fantastic run in the Luskin Star and was good enough again in the next two. This is his trip, he is a ‘Randwick horse’ and he’ll run on anything. Defending Winter Stakes champion UCALLEDIT (2) has won 10 from 32 with six placings but has only one second from six starts on Heavy. ESSONNE (5) is a very solid Listed class mare who is on her way to a peak.

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R9: Catanach’s Jewellers Hcp (1200m)

Thomas: ELSON BOY (8) is a great story. He was purchased for next to nothing and this season has won more races (eight) than any other Australian horse and goes to Randwick on a six-race winning streak. He excels on wet tracks, drawn to advantage – he can win again. CONTEMPORARY (5) hasn’t raced since a monstrous first-up win at the Hawkesbury stand-alone meeting nearly two months ago. He’s very talented but that lack of recent racing on a heavy track is the query. DISNECK (14) carried 60kg and charged home for second behind form filly In Flight last week, he’s on the quick back-up here and drops 8kg. DALAALAAT (6) is an each way contender.

O’Cass: CONTEMPORARY (5), the grandson of Mnemosyne, has finished on the podium at 13 of his 18 starts. Just to keep going on the ‘numbers’ RT, his record at the Randwick 1200m is three starts for a win, a second and a third. He has had the tick-over trial since his Hawkesbury win and his Heavy form is okay without him being a muddie. CUBAN ROYALE (2) is one of the best longshots on the card at $41/$9. Sure, he will turn 10 at the end of the month and this is start number 75 but he ran fifth in the Carrington Stakes at start 73 and how about this, RT – he has won 4 from 12 first-up. DISNECK (14) was outstanding at Rosehill last weekend.

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R10: TAB Handicap (1400m)

Thomas: PURE ALPHA (10) won impressively second-up and is showing plenty of promise. He was scratched from Rosehill last week to be reserved for this race but has to overcome a wide draw. I still think he is good enough to win. GIVARA (6) is a big watch. He was powering home late at Canterbury when resuming for third behind Little Cointreau. Givara will be easy to spot in this race as his rider is wearing the famous Tulloch colours. RHAPSODY CHIC (9) has won successive Melbourne starts with ease and looks hard to beat. ANG POW (1) has his share of weight but is racing very consistently.

O’Cass: LORD OF BISCAY (7) is what Duff would say is a ‘yard and a market-watch’, RT – and fair enough too given that this will be the son of the mighty Lope De Vega’s first run in Australia for Kris Lees and the Australian Bloodstock team. The overseas form is very good; two wins from five starts as well as a fourth of 12 in a Listed race at Chantilly. The wet track won’t worry RHAPSODY CHIC (9) who won her debut at Matamata on a Heavy 10! If ever and whenever he gets an even break, BLUFF ‘N’ BLUSTER (16) can and will finish over the top and win at odds.

Originally published as Ray and Shayno: Randwick best bet ‘bred to be special’

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Original URL: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/horse-racing/tips/ray-and-shayno-randwick-best-bet-bred-to-be-special/news-story/72b7def0fa7c88f736d08e6f079bfbdf