NewsBite

Ray and Duff’s Royal Randwick tips for 2025 Apollo Stakes Day: Joliestar ‘ready to explode’

Ron Dufficy is predicting a Jolie good day for punters at Royal Randwick on Saturday, with Chris Waller’s star mare the key runner. Get Duff and Ray Thomas’s tips and analysis for the 10-race card on 2025 Apollo Stakes Day.

Ray Thomas
10 min read
February 14, 2025 - 10:41AM
G1 Lightning Stakes day | Via Sistina v Ceolwulf | 12 'Self-trumpeter' votes dished out

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate all the big-race chances at Royal Randwick on Saturday, plus the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington.

Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.
Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

DUFF’S BEST BET
Race 5 No.5 JOLIESTAR

DUFF’S BEST VALUE
Race 9 No.3 LAVISH EMPIRE

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Race 1: Midway Hcp (1000m)

Ron Dufficy: This is a hard race to line up but I want to be with CATCH THE GLORY (11). She’s a lightly-raced three-year-old with more depth to her form and will be hard enough to hold out. SHALL BE (4) is an interesting young horse and has been pretty sharp winning her last two starts. He maps quite nicely here. WINNING PROPOSAL (3) did enough first-up, Kerrin McEvoy sticks, she is a city winner previously and gets enough ticks here. ALL TOO LUCKY (12) has had a few excuses at her last two runs in town and no knock in a race like this.

Ray Thomas: RUSH HOUR (1) raced on speed and tried hard when third to Shohisha at Rosehill a month ago. Freshened with a month between runs so the drop back to 1000m won’t be an issue. I’m giving WINNING PROPOSAL (3) another chance. She resumed at Warwick Farm, got well back early but was working to the line late when eighth behind Catch The Glory. She will be fitter and was competitive at stakes level last spring. CATCH THE GLORY (11) finished off strongly to win first-up and run a fast 56.5s for the 1000m. She will be hard to beat again.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Race 2: TAB Highway (1800m)

Dufficy: I’m going with the Highway form of ADOLPHUS (2). He was a month between runs last start and stuck on well for second. If we get some rain on the day it is no problem for him. TAPA KICK (3) is the danger. Both his runs back have been good and he is ready to win. The map looks good for him. VERMICELLA (6) is lightly raced but is doing a good job for an inexperienced mare. GHOST WALKER (14) has been a work in progress for quite a while now and his first-up run was more than acceptable.

Thomas: TAPA KICK (3) was held up for a few strides early in the straight and lost valuable momentum before he ran on for third in a Rosehill 1500m Highway. He was second-up that day and will be improved, particularly now he is out to 1800m. Tapa Kick has not missed a top three placing in 12 starts, winning twice, and will be fighting out the finish. I’ve also got VERMICELLA (6) in my numbers, she’s building a nice record. ADOLPHUS (2) tried hard when second in a Rosehill Highway (Tapa Kick was third), he’s very fit and going to 1800m won’t be an issue. DALE (11) has learned how to win now.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Race 3: Coolmore Pierro Plate (1100m)

Dufficy: Good race, Ray. PALLATON (2) has had one trial in a fast heat since landing those big bets racing away to win easily on debut. He appears a really good prospect moving forward. UNITED STATES (5) is a very likeable colt who should improve on his excellent debut run. SKYHOOK (10) is only off one trial but he really impressed racing away in fast time. He adds plenty of interest. The other nice horse here is NORDIC VIKING (6). He was really good first-up and although his pedigree suggests he may be better over further he is a knockout chance.

Thomas: PALLATON (2) vaulted into the Golden Slipper conversation with a brilliant debut win at Randwick back in December. He was given a let-up after that win but again caught the eye with his fast finishing third in a Rosehill barrier trial behind top two-year-olds North England and Bel Merci. COMEDY (1) is a striking son of super sire Snitzel who powered home to win the Kirkham Plate at his only start during the spring. Promising Godolphin colt who comes out of the North England trial, finishing fourth. UNITED STATES (5), a $1.75 million Easter Yearling Sale purchase, created a big impression when he powered home to just miss on debut and is a big improver.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Race 4: Wellington Racing Club Trophy (1600m)

Dufficy: YORKSHIRE (1) is a lovely horse who has been nurtured through his classes beautifully. He gets the claim and has a good chance to get another win on the board. LINCOLN ROCKS (8) is a good longshot. I liked the way he jumped out at Pakenham recently and he won fresh last preparation. I’m wary of him. CINQUE TORRI (12), trained by Bjorn Baker, ran well behind Yorkshire last start and from barrier one, he should get the run of the race on speed. SANDPAPER (7), also from the Baker stable, is going well and just has to run the mile out.

Thomas: It’s hard to tip against YORKSHIRE (1), Ronnie. The John O’Shea and Tom Charlton-trained gelding has won five races (and two placings) from seven attempts and is chasing a hat-trick this preparation after successive wins at Wyong and Rosehill. He finished the race off strongly to run down a game Sandpaper over 1500m and the Randwick mile suits him. Yorkshire, who will be ridden by 3kg claimer Anna Roper, actually meets Sandpaper slightly better at the weights this time. SANDPAPER (7) was very game at Rosehill and will make a race of it again. HEADLEY GRANGE (4) has never been racing in better form and MISS YOU ELLA (18) is a genuine lightweight chance.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Race 5: Expressway Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m very keen on JOLIESTAR (5). She’s had two beautiful trials and is ready to explode here. This does look likely to be run at a slow early tempo but Joliestar is adaptable and as long as she keeps in touch I think she will run over the top of them. The danger is MAGIC TIME (2). She’s a very good mare ready to go. OLENTIA (6) has been brilliant fresh in the past as a rule but I think her best chance is a wet track against the two favourites. AIRMAN (1) has had two good jump-outs at Flemington, he goes well fresh and won the Premiere Stakes over the course and distance last spring.

Thomas: JOLIESTAR (5) is lethal fresh and excels over the Randwick 1200m. She’s resuming off two stylish barrier trial efforts including her close third to Royal Patronage at Rosehill where she was very keen to go faster. She has the ability to run very sectionals but would prefer a dry racing surface. MAGIC TIME (2) is a class mare and looked sharp in a recent Cranbourne barrier trial. AIRMAN (1) won the Premiere Stakes last spring, beating subsequent The Everest winner Bella Nipotina into third placing, and he also has a very good first-up record. OLENTIA (6) is not out of this race by any means. She has won four of her five first-up attempts and was desperately unlucky in the other.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Race 6: Robrick Lodge Triscay Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: I quite like COMMEMORATIVE (2). She’s had two lovely trials where she has really caught the eye, she gets the right run from the draw and I suggest she is ready for this race. KUNDALINI (4) has been a work in progress for a while but she is here to run well judging by her recent trial. It is hard to say how good CLEAR THINKING (10) is but we will find out here. She is short enough considering she is just out of Highway grade but the unbeaten factor always stands up. BONITA QUEEN (7) is third-up and will look the winner for a long way here with no weight on her back.

Thomas: Unbeaten CLEAR THINKING (10) comes from a Highway straight to a Group 3 but has been so impressive, she is early favourite with TAB Fixed Odds at $3.90. She is short enough in betting but has an incredible will-to-win and drops 7kg on her excellent first-up win when she ran fast time. COMMEMORATIVE (2) is a top class mare who hasn’t missed a top two finish in four starts, winning twice. She does prefer tracks with a little bit of “give” in them. KUNDALINI (4) is talented and was spelled after chasing home boom mare Isthmus in the Begonia Belle Stakes at Flemington last spring. She has had a jumpout and barrier trial in Melbourne and is always competitive fresh. BONITA QUEEN (7) is very fast, drops 8.5kg here, and if she gets any sort of control up front she will be tough to run down.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Race 7: TAB Light Fingers Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: You could go a few ways here but I have to be with the exciting filly LADY SHENANDOAH (3). She looks an enormous talent. She just has to adjust to the 1200m here and will be strong late. LADY OF CAMELOT (1) will race in blinkers which should sharpen her up. She gets a lovely run on speed and back to her own age and sex at level weights, she really stands out. Although there are no recent wins just look at the races she has been running well in all season. MANAAL (2) looks to be flying at the trials and hopefully she can find a position from the draw. I like LILAC (9) and she could run a race at odds.

Thomas: LADY OF CAMELOT (1) has raced well all season without winning but this is her chance. She takes residual fitness into the Light Finger Stakes, she’s trialled well, drawn to suit, the blinkers go on and is well suited at set weights. Similarly, LADY SHENANDOAH (3) is suited by the conditions of this race and is trialling up a storm. MANAAL (2) is another top class filly and will be finishing fast. SHOHISHA (11) has a race fitness edge and is over the odds.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Race 8: Apollo Stakes (1400m)

Dufficy: I’m going for a minor upset with FANGIRL (6). I suspect she might be a little more forward than her stablemates and gets the opportunity to catch them on the hop. It’s weather related as she doesn’t want it heavy if we get rain. This is short of VIA SISTINA (5)’s best distance but she is arguably the best racehorse in the country and won’t run badly. CEOLWULF (1) is an outstanding prospect resuming. He is yet to win first-up but I don’t doubt his talent and he’s in for a big preparation. I’m looking for a horse with gate speed as the tempo might be slow so perhaps GOLDEN PATH (4) can take advantage of that and run a competitive race.

Thomas: When FANGIRL (6) and VIA SISTINA (5) met first-up in the Winx Stakes last spring, Fangirl started a short-priced favourite and was unlucky when a close third to Via Sistina who was at double figure odds. Via Sistina then won another three Group 1 races during spring, is arguably the nation’s best racehorse, and she is a dominant favourite at $2 for the Apollo Stakes. Fangirl is at $4.20 on Saturday and I feel she is a better bet given she is so good fresh and has a very good Randwick 1400m record. CEOLWULF (1) is trialling brilliantly and he defeated both mares in a recent Warwick Farm trial. LINDERMANN (3) is also trialling well and should run competitively.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Race 9: Macquarie St Social Hcp (1300m)

Dufficy: I like a long short here in LAVISH EMPIRE (3). I know he hasn’t won in over a year but he is good odds. He was only warming up in a good race at the Gold Coast a month ago. He does have some nice formlines this horse and could be the forgotten runner. YISKA (11) is doing a good job winning two of three this preparation. His only defeat came when he was ridden too close to the speed but he is a little query at 1300m. FRENCH ENDEAVOUR (12) is a nice mare who will sprint well fresh.

Thomas: DISNECK (1) was the form sprinter of the Sydney summer, reeling off three Randwick 1200m wins in succession before going to stakes level at Rosehill and running on strongly to finish a close fourth. He’s back to his favourite track and right grade on Saturday. YISKA (11) charged home to win impressively at Randwick last start and rates highly again. EYE OF THE FIRE (9) never runs a bad race and is sure to be very competitive again.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Race 10: Captivant @ Kia Ora Hcp (1400m)

Dufficy: It’s hard to get away from PERFUMIST (7). She is another of these in-form Bjorn Baker horses that are impossible to pot. The map looks good for her, an astute claim with apprentice Anna Roper, and she looks hard to beat. PANIC (6) didn’t get a lot of room to move when resuming and still ran a good race. He was a stakeswinner last season and looks some sort of threat. COOL JAKEY (2) good too far back first-up but did enough and maps better here.

Thomas: PERFUMIST (7) has reeled off four successive wins, all by a margin, and she seems to be getting better with racing. She blitzed her rivals at Rosehill and drops back slightly in distance to the Randwick 1400m where she won so easily two starts back. She’s not badly weighted after the claim, either. STARMAN (8) is never far away but finds it hard to win. Panic did enough first-up to suggest he’s in for a good preparation and he did win the South Pacific Classic over the Randwick 1400m course earlier in his career. MORE TERRITORIES (14) is a filly with ability and is a good each way contender.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Flemington Race 8: Black Caviar Lightning (1000m)

Dufficy: I want to be with GROWING EMPIRE (10). I’ve always had a massive opinion of the horse and he should be ready to go first-up. I know Switzerland beat him in the Coolmore Stud Stakes last preparation but I feel Growing Empire could be the one who has more improvement. In saying that, SWITZERLAND (11) is the measuring stick and a huge lead with James McDonald forgoing some cream rides at Randwick which suggests this colt is really going well. TRAFFIC WARDEN (12) will be steaming home late and WAY TO THE STARS (4) is a specialist 1000m horse who can run a race

Thomas: SWITZERLAND (11) finished his spring with two brilliant wins including his Group 1 along the Flemington straight course and he’s the deserved favourite for the Lightning. He’s had a barrier trial and jumpout to ready him for this race and he’s going to be in the finish. TRAFFIC WARDEN (12) sprints well fresh and he is going to be powering home. GROWING EMPIRE (10) is a terrific talent and he has to be in the mix. I AM ME (6) is a first-up specialist and she broke 56 seconds to beat subsequent Everest winner Bella Nipotina over 1000m first-up last spring.

Originally published as Ray and Duff’s Royal Randwick tips for 2025 Apollo Stakes Day: Joliestar ‘ready to explode’

Add your comment to this story

To join the conversation, please Don't have an account? Register

Join the conversation, you are commenting as Logout

More related stories

Original URL: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/horse-racing/tips/ray-and-duffs-royal-randwick-tips-for-2025-apollo-stakes-day-joliestar-ready-to-explode/news-story/f736c9726cec50f62d55594e8d59de99