Ray and Duff’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Scone on Saturday: $8.50 value bet

A talented Victorian who will appreciate the jar out of the track shapes as a terrific value play at Scone on Saturday. Get Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips and analysis.

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the key chances for the 10-race Scone stand-alone meeting on Saturday.

Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.

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DUFF’S BEST BET
Race 3 No.2 AKAYSHA

DUFF’S BEST VALUE
Race 5 No.16 PURE ALPHA

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RACE 1: Select Events Midway (1700m)

Ron Dufficy: JUMEIRAH BEACH (5) found trouble and still won last start, leaving those behind him with no excuses. He’s up in distance but that should be OK and has to be hard to beat again. GENERAL SOHO (6) is a tough horse who was strong putting another win on the board last start. He has won three times on this track so he could run a race at odds. NORTHERN EYES (1) is going well without winning. He fought hard after doing a bit of work last start and only has to run out the distance to be very competitive again. PERFECT JUSTICE (12) doesn’t want too much rain but he gets in very light with different form.

Ray Thomas: It’s hard to tip against JUMEIRAH BEACH (5) who beat many of his Scone rivals at Hawkesbury after having an interrupted run. He’s never been in better form and handles rain-affected going. LET’S FLY (11) won at Kembla than tried hard when fifth to Jumeirah Beach last start. She just doesn’t want it too wet. NORTHERN EYES (1) is close to a win but the 1700m will test him. PRINCE OF SORTS (4) makes his own luck on speed but is a slight query at this distance.

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RACE 2: TAB Highway (1600m)

Dufficy: I’m sticking with ROUGE MOULIN (4) here. He ran on nicely at Randwick last start and this looks a nice race to try him at a mile. He does no work from his inside draw. The danger could be DUE CALZINI (10). This three-year-old has been a work in progress for a while, he’s had a nice grounding for this, and the timing looks right but needs luck from the draw. FIORSUM FRED (5) is a big query. He is resuming at a mile without a barrier trial but has the most depth to his form, is trained on the track and sets up well. PHAROAHZANO (12) is a tough horse with a lightweight, gets in well with the claim and rarely runs a bad race.

Thomas: ROUGE MOULIN (4) did work home well at Randwick and gives the impression he would be suited at 1600m. The drier the better for him. TAINUI (1) led throughout to win well at Tamworth over 2100m. He has to come back in trip here but hasn’t missed a top two finish in six starts and will be in this for a long way again. DUE CALZINI (10) hit the line hard to just miss in the Guineas at Wagga last start and his best form has been on soft tracks. WIN THE DAY (9) was good in a Highway two starts back and is better suited here than she was at the Warwick Farm midweeks last start.

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RACE 3: Woodlands Stakes (1100m)

Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on AKAYSHA (2). She defeated the highly-rated Beadman on debut then was good in defeat behind the promising Grand Eagle last start. She just needs luck from her wide draw and she is the one they all have to beat. STARDOM (6) has the same form-lines as Akaysha and franked that form by bolting in at Wagga Wagga last start. MISS FREELOVE (3) maps beautifully from the soft draw and did it well winning at Canterbury last start. WOLLZEILE (7) has been unextended in two trials and should be closely monitored, resuming off a big win.

Thomas: I’ve also landed on AKAYSHA (2). She broke 56s for the 1000m at Kembla beating the brilliant Beadman on debut and that colt has since won successive races including at stakes level. Akaysha then went to Randwick and it took the talented Grand Eagle to beat her. She goes on top despite her wide barrier. MISS FREELOVE (3) can give trainer Peter Snowden the feature race quinella. She was brilliant at her second start winning by a comfortable margin at Canterbury on a heavy track. ZUMBO (4) maintained her unbeaten record with a strong win in the Miss Finland on very heavy going last start. SYLPH (15) ran on well behind the talented Agarwood at Warwick Farm and is not out of this despite a horror barrier.

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RACE 4: Benchmark 72 Hcp (1300m)

Dufficy: OH DIAMOND LIL (5) always promised to be a better mare with another preparation under her belt and looking at her two trial wins this appears so. I think this is a lovely race for her first-up. INVADER ZIM (6) had plenty to do when not suited first-up. Both his wins have been at his second run back and this race suits with more speed up front. GETAFIX (3) is better than what we have seen from his two runs back and surely back in grade he has to improve. BLAZING HARRY (1) is a nice horse who is well-graded but just a query if he’s wound up for this under a big weight.

Thomas: We’ve gone the same way again, Ronnie. I also like OH DIAMOND LIL (5). She’s a talented mare who had a great preparation over summer and she has been flying in her two recent runaway barrier trial wins. She’s the one to beat. INVADER ZIM (6) ran on well when a close fifth at Randwick when resuming and can only be improved. SPARKLING (2) tried hard first-up at Randwick and will be fitter. BLAZING HARRY (1) hasn’t been let go in two recent trials but he does sprint well fresh.

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RACE 5: Benchmark 78 Hcp (1700m)

Dufficy: I like PURE ALPHA (16). He is back from Victoria, up in distance, all his best form is with the jar out of the track, and I feel he will be right in the finish. GOOD BANTER (14) did more than enough first-up to say she can run well here. MIRACLE SPIN (2) finished hard behind a subsequent winner last start and is set for a peak performance at this grade. QUANTUM CAT (5)’s two runs back have had merit, the bigger track suits but he’s also drawn awkwardly and needs luck in transit.

Thomas: QUANTUM CAT (5) loomed up to win at Hawkesbury but Jamberoo was too tough under pressure. Quantum Cat has had two runs from a spell and should be ready to peak now. This is his chance despite his wide barrier. GOOD BANTER (14) worked to the line well behind Know Thyself in a strong form race at Randwick. She’s fitter, excels on wet tracks and will get the run of the race. MIRACLE SPIN (2) made good ground late behind subsequent Gosford Gold Cup winner Les Vampires at Randwick so that form reads well for this race. BACIO DEL MIST (13) is always over the odds but is a good wet-tracker if she gets conditions to suit.

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RACE 6: Benchmark 78 Hcp (1100m)

Dufficy: Good race. TANGLEWOOD (3) came of age last preparation with a placing in The Kosciuszko. Although he is coming off a decent spell his two recent trials have been very sharp and I’m leaning his way. I think DOLLAR MAGIC (7), trained on the track, is nice and fresh, she is very reliable and you know she will give her usual tough, genuine performance. LEFT FIELD (15)’s only run on this track was last year when she was placed in the Denise’s Joy Stakes. You would have to say that form would look very strong here in a benchmark 78. ZEALOUSLY (6) had excuses when wide without cover last start and has to get another chance.

Thomas: As you pointed out Ronnie, ZEALOUSLY (6) didn’t have much luck over 1000m at Randwick but still tried hard to finish third. She’s been improved by two runs from a spell and although a beaten favourite both times, stay with her as she’s ready to win. DOLLAR MAGIC (7) is always competitive in this grade and she does race well fresh. PASSEGGIATA (16) and MISS ICELANDIC (4) beat Zealously home at Randwick and both rate among the main chances.

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RACE 7: Denise’s Joy Stakes (1100m)

Dufficy: The big raps are for SOFT LOVE (6), Ray. She’s an untapped and unbeaten Victorian filly who caught the eye in a recent Sydney trial. This looks a real target race for her and she has come up with a beautiful draw. THAMES (12) has to go in as she has the form around Soft Love two starts back at Caulfield then was unlucky last start. She’s also trialled in Sydney recently but is not as well drawn. SHOHISHA (2) has her share of weight but is trialling well and has proven class on her side. OVERFULL (7) is trialling well in Queensland and could surprise at big odds.

Thomas: SHOHISHA (2) is resuming off one easy trial but she’s a promising filly who races well fresh and handles soft tracks. She was spelled after a competitive fifth to Lady Shenandoah and Lady Of Camelot in the Light Fingers Stakes back in February and that form reads very well for this race. SOFT LOVE (6) will be hard to beat for all the reasons you mentioned. GERRINGONG (8) showed considerable promise during her debut preparation last summer and her trials have been good. SUNRISE (4) has been a brilliant winner of both starts this campaign but has to overcome the extreme outside barrier.

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RACE 8: Ortensia Stakes (1100m)

Dufficy: I’m having a throw at the stumps with CABALLUS (11). He had his issues last preparation and has had throat surgery since. He has moved nicely under a hold in two trials and his best form wins this race. COMPELLING TRUTH (3) is up and running, he’s very fit and has a good horse’s record now. OSTRAKA (1) has been crying out to get some cover early in a race and gets his chance here back in distance in a fast-run race. Don’t rule him out. PISANELLO (6) is right at his peak off a win and sure to be rushing home late.

Thomas: COMPELLING TRUTH (3) did a great job to win the Wagga Wagga Town Plate and is probably better suited coming back slightly in trip. He’s drawn wide but has good tactical speed and will be in this contest for a long way. PISANELLO (6) was back to his best at Canterbury last start and it is worth noting he scored a monstrous win on this track last year. Watch betting moves for CABALLUS (11) who is a big tip for this race. His trials have been very good and he’s set to sprint well fresh. OSTRAKA (1) has had his chances but this race sets up well for him and he can improve.

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RACE 9: Dark Jewel Classic (1400m)

Dufficy: I like WRITTEN IN CODE (9). She should be forgiven for her last start defeat when making her run on the wrong part of the track. Prior to that she looked very progressive so I want to stay with her given she has a lightweight. ZEITUNG (15) is the danger. She is knocking on the door and won’t know herself with the limit weight. COUNTYOURBLESSINGS (12) has been sharpened with a trial win since not having much luck first-up. VIBRANT SUN (1) is a big query. She’s a Group 1 Oaks winner and looking at her trials she is more than capable of sprinting well fresh.

Thomas: ZEITUNG (15) won a Group 3 race at Flemington during the Cup Carnival last year and has been working her way back to form this autumn. She ran on well for third in the Hawkesbury Guineas which sets her up for this race. IMPOSANT (14) has been kept fresh since her very good third in the Provincial Midway Championship Final and she is over the odds despite her wide draw. WRITTEN IN CODE (9) is going to get all the favours from her good draw. WATCH MY GIRL (10) has good first-up form and her chances soar if the track rating is near the good range.

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RACE 10: Luskin Star Stakes (1300m)

Dufficy: I’m with PHEARSON (8). I thought he did enough last start, is on the back-up here and gets to 1300m which he relishes. With a nice run from the good draw he will be around the mark. GALLANT STAR (16) finds a faster race this week and should get cover from his draw which will help him no end. WHINCHAT (11) has won his two trials well, his winning strike-rate and fresh form speaks for itself. CHRYSAOR (7) did win first-up at Flemington last preparation so I suggest he would have had enough work to sprint well fresh again.

Thomas: GALLANT STAR (16) had his chance at Hawkesbury but tried hard when narrowly beaten. He should be at peak fitness after three runs from a spell, will get every chance from his favourable draw, and he’s never carried such a light weight in his 17-start career. WHINCHAT (11) has the early speed to negate his wide draw and he will give these something to chase. His two recent trial wins have been brilliant. BRUDENELL (2) is on the back-up after being nosed out in the Takeover Target Stakes last week and will be in the mix again. CHRYSAOR (7) can sprint well fresh.

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Originally published as Ray and Duff’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Scone on Saturday: $8.50 value bet