‘I’m convinced he’s the horse to beat’: Form guru Gary Crispe gives his tip for 2024 Spring Champion Stakes

Form guru Gary Crispe who is convinced the early betting market which has Swiftfalcon as favourite over El Castello will be proven wrong in Saturday’s Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes.

El Castello has compelling form, a surging ratings profile, and the necessary staying ability to win the Group 1 $2 million Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

This is the opinion of form guru Gary Crispe who is convinced the early betting market which has Swiftfalcon as favourite over El Castello will be proven wrong.

“I’m convinced El Castello is the horse to beat,’’ Crispe said.

“He has won his last three starts and keeps improving his rating every time.

“I thought he was very impressive in the Gloaming Stakes and he won’t have any difficulty with 2000m.

“El Castello did win with something in hand, it was a very strong effort.’’

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

Crispe said El Castello improved his Timeform rating to 111 winning the Gloaming Stakes and was capable of going to a new peak figure in the Spring Champion Stakes.

The Gloaming Stakes is invariably the best form reference for the Spring Champion Stakes with 12 horses completing the double including most recently by Sharp ‘N’ Smart (2022) and Shadow Hero (2019).

El Castello won the Gloaming by nearly two lengths from the Team Hawkes-trained Swiftfalcon but TAB Fixed Odds price assessors have the latter as slight favourite for the Spring Champion at $3.50 ahead of the Cummings-trained colt at $3.90.

El Castello strings together three wins in a row and wins the G3 TAB Gloaming Stakes for Josh Parr and @ACummingsracing!@aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/yj5en5VxT3

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 12, 2024

• Five Diamonds fancy gives trainer ‘something to fight for’

But Crispe said, barring bad luck in running or some other unforeseen circumstance, he could not envisage a scenario in which Swiftfalcon could improve enough off his 106 rating to beat El Castello.

“Swiftfalcon ran on well in the Gloaming and is the only real danger but I don’t see how he can turn the tables on him to be honest,’’ Crispe said.

“El Castello seems to have come from nowhere this spring, he has a very good turn of foot and is in great form.’’

• ‘Lovely filly’: Berry’s assessment on Golden Eagle raider

Crispe is also wary of the Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained Henlein despite the colt finishing only sixth in the Gloaming Stakes.

“After Henlein ran in the Stutt Stakes (second to Evaporate) he was all the rage for this race,’’ he said.

“I was hearing about this horse from everyone but then he was disappointing in the Gloaming Stakes.

“He was only about four lengths from the winner so I am prepared to forgive him that run.

“If he runs up to his Stutt Stakes effort behind Evaporate then his form reads well and he has to be included among the chances.’’

Crispe rated the emerging Harlem Queen as the best of the fillies and capable of a top four finish.

“Harlem Queen’s effort to run second in the Flight Stakes was very good and she is an improving filly,’’ he said.

“She won a class 1 at Kembla and then ran in a Group 1, the Flight Stakes, and finished second to a very smart filly in Lady Shenandoah. She’s a promising filly.’’

Originally published as ‘I’m convinced he’s the horse to beat’: Form guru Gary Crispe gives his tip for 2024 Spring Champion Stakes