Damien Oliver 2024 Cox Plate tips, preview: There is only one certainty in this year’s race

Can Pride Of Jenni win on a one-week back-up? Is the Japanese raider Prognosis a class above? Can Mr Brightside break through at 2000m? Hall of Fame jockey Damien Oliver gives his tips and analysis for Saturday’s 2024 Ladbrokes Cox Plate.

The only certainty in this Ladbrokes Cox Plate is that everyone will be chasing Pride Of Jenni.

While it’s not the perfect scenario backing-up within a week and having to travel back down from Sydney, she’s still going to take some catching.

We saw her back-up within a week during last year’s Melbourne Cup Carnival and win both times.

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The stretch from 1600m to 2000m shouldn’t worry her either, but I think the presence of Royal Patronage and Evaporate is the biggest plus for her rivals.

Why? Instead of her being able to get away by 10 or 15 lengths in front, I suspect one or both of Royal Patronage and Evaporate will stay in touch with her an act as “bridging” horses for the other more fancied horses trying to run her down.

"I've got a lot of time for the great Japanese horses."

Prognosis isn't the only runner Damien Oliver is keen on in the Ladbrokes Cox Plate 😏@Quinny_1@[e-mail]/Y4En5Pc0xP

— Ladbrokes.com.au (@ladbrokescomau) October 23, 2024

• Sunline jockey’s Cox Plate advice for Pride Of Jenni’s rider

With this in mind, I can see the ever-reliable Mr Brightside will be one of those.

People query him at a strong 2000m, but he absolutely loves The Valley and went within a whisker of winning this race last year.

I suspect we won’t know how the Tuesday mishap affected Via Sistina until about the 500m mark.

There’s no hiding at that stage of a Cox Plate, especially when you’ve got Pride Of Jenni trying to break their hearts.

• Inside Story: The Japanese dinner that secured Prognosis for the Cox Plate

Having had experience riding in Japan and knowing how strongly their races are run over there, Prognosis should enjoy Pride Of Jenni making this a last-horse standing affair.

Prognosis has a third in Japan to Equinox, who is one of the greatest horses we’ve seen in the past decade.

He’s also got two great runs behind Romantic Warrior, who won this race last year.

I’m not worried about him on the tight Moonee Valley track because he won around the Chukyo track at home, which is a tight-turning track and comparable to Moonee Valley.

The Cox Plate favourite Prognosis with @LaneDamian on board had a nice piece of work @TheValley this morning. Handled the track with ease.@Racing@JRA_WorldRacingpic.twitter.com/CIOrRUKGoC

— Jarrad Dooley (@DigDooley) October 16, 2024

• Clinton Payne’s Cox Plate tips, runner-by-runner form assessment

He’s had some issues jumping well in his races, but the connections have leant on “barrier master” Julien Welsh to help during his time over here at Werribee.

Now we get to Broadsiding. I’m a big fan.

I think he’s had a well-timed preparation for this.

I was at Eagle Farm to see him win the Group 1 JJ Atkins back in July over a mile and thought he was a Ladbrokes Cox Plate horse then.

He ran really well in the Caulfield Guineas against the track pattern of the day.

Broadsiding is the X-factor three-year-old with just 49.5kg on his back.

He’s a strong-finishing three-year-old rather than an on-pacer, which I like.

"I would say so."

Champion trainer Chris Waller fronts the media after Via Sistina's mishap at Breakfast With The Best this morning. @[e-mail]/rZad192vvg

— Racenet (@RacenetTweets) October 21, 2024

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The way this race will be run, at such a frantic pace, his lightweight will be even bigger advantage than usual.

Broadsiding is my top pick to nab them late in a vintage Ladbrokes Cox Plate.

For those playing in Friday night’s Moonee Valley Gold Cup, I’m keen on Francesco Guardi and think Okita Soushi will run a big race at odds.

DAMIEN OLIVER’S COX PLATE TIPS
TOP PICK: Broadsiding
DANGER: Prognosis

* Damien Oliver writes for us courtesy of Ladbrokes.

Originally published as Damien Oliver 2024 Cox Plate tips, preview: There is only one certainty in this year’s race