THE LAST SAY: Tips, market movers, inside mail for today’s racing
Ray Thomas gives you all the information you need to back a winner right around Australia today, with tips, the latest track conditions and market movers plus inside mail.
Horse Racing
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Ai is often the case in Sydney racing during off-carnival periods, most interest centres on the two-year-old race which opens the Royal Randwick program today.
For most runners in the Petaluma Handicap (1100m), this race is a final lead-up to the $3 million Magic Millions 2yo Classic on the Gold Coast in two weeks.
O’ Ole won the Wyong Magic Millions last start but the filly has topweight of 58kg and TAB Fixed Odds price assessors are taking risks with the Bjorn Baker-trained filly, rating her a $5.50 chance.
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The Peter Snowden-trained Memo has finished behind O’ Ole in both her starts but she hasn’t had a lot of luck in either. The Randwick 1100m should suit Memo who has come up favourite at $2.60 but there is also plenty of interest in Gallo Nero and Tempestuous.
Team Hawkes prepares Gallo Nero and the stable has a strong presence at the Randwick meeting with favourites Mawjood ($2.25, Race 4) and Liberty State ($3.80, Race 7).
Ole ole - it's O' Ole's Wyong Magic Millions 2YO Classic! 🎉@BBakerRacing | @WyongRaceClub | @mmsnippetspic.twitter.com/tHDE1BDTPW
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) December 11, 2024
At The Valley, punters could do worse than place their trust in champion jockey Craig Williams, who has been in sensational form of late. He rode a four-timer at Caulfield on December 14, a double at Pakenham last Saturday and another brace at Caulfield on Boxing Day.
The gifted jockey has a powerful book of rides at The Valley including five favourites – Neverenoughlego ($4, Race 2), Just For Show ($2.60, Race 4), Mytemptation ($3.20, Race 5), Fickle ($2.30, Race 6) and Bon Mistress ($3, Race 7).
Fickle holds Rewards And More at bay, winning as the long odds on favourite 💨@dabernigracing collect a race-to-race double at the Caulfield Heath ✌ï¸@CWilliamsJockeypic.twitter.com/yT7pL6C2H6
— Racing.com (@Racing) December 12, 2024
• EXPERT TIPS: Mark Guest’s tips, analysis and quaddie picks for The Valley on Saturday
Looking north, the highlight at Eagle Farm is the $300,000 Magic Millions Buffering (1400m), which features last-start The Ingham winner Robusto ($8.50) taking on the likes of $3.2 million stakesearner Rothfire ($4) and Godolphin’s Tamerlane ($6.50).
"He's done an amazing job this time in"
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) December 14, 2024
Robusto won the $2Million G2 Ingham at Randwick - hear from Luke Hilton and @clarkyhk !@BBakerRacing | @Darby_Racing | @aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/hQxDMiBYmd
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TRACK CONDITIONS, TIPS
ROYAL RANDWICK
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with a forecast top temperature of 27c.
Track: Soft (5)
Rail: True
THE VALLEY
Weather: Mild, cloudy day with the chance of showers and a forecast top temperature of 23c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: True
EAGLE FARM
Weather: Hot, sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 35c.
Track: Soft (5)
Rail: 6.5 out from 1000m to 400m, 6m remainder
MORPHETTVILLE
Weather: Mild, cloudy day with the chance of showers and a forecast top temperature of 23c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: 11m out
• Tips from the big bookies for Saturday, December 28
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BE WARY
Randwick is hosting its third race meeting in a week with the rail shifted back to the true after being 3m out last Saturday, then 6m out on Boxing Day. Despite the equine traffic, Randwick’s course proper is playing very fairly. Storms hit Sydney last night and Randwick received 12mls of rain which has tipped the track rating to a soft 5 but given the forecast for warm weather, expect an upgrade. The Valley last raced on December 13 for a night meeting when the rail was out 5m but will be back in the true today. On a firm deck, there is a likelihood those on pace will be in prime position.
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RANDWICK TIPS
THE BEST BET
BUNKER HUT (Race 7 No.2) is bursting to win a race. He was unlucky to lose to The Novelist at Kembla Grange in a tight finish then looked home at Randwick two weeks ago only to be collared right on the line by Perfect Thought. Bunker Hut is winless in eight attempts at 1400m but he has been in the minor placings in six of those races. He gets the blinkers on, should be peaking at his third run in and is ready to win.
Bunker Hut was too good first up in the opener at Rosehill. @MFreedmanRacing@Darby_Racing@G1TySchilpic.twitter.com/xcVLWfVTZm
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 9, 2023
THE NEXT BEST
BULLETS HIGH (Race 8 No.8) is proving costly for punters with four consecutive losses as favourite. He had his chance at Rosehill last start but wasn’t at home in the very heavy conditions and found Be Real too strong. Bullets High is worth another chance as he’s suited over 2000m on a firm track, the blinkers go on and he won’t know himself with 55kg.
Bullets High hits top gear late under @nashhot and @PrideRacing takes the last at Warwick Farm ✅ pic.twitter.com/NjJniiMPDm
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 16, 2024
VALUE BET
SUTTON VELLA (Race 2 No.8) was very unlucky in a Randwick 1000m Highway two weeks ago when she came from well back on the turn to finish fast for third to Ticklebelly. Sutton Vella had to weave her way through the field and should have finished much closer. She ran her final 600m in a very fast 33.21s despite racing in restricted room. Sutton Vella hasn’t won beyond 1000m but is very fit and racing like she will appreciate 1200m. In a very open Highway, Sutton Vella is great value at $12.
A thriller at Randwick with Ticklebelly hanging on from the fast-finishing Carribean King!@aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/3x603Y2ZNc
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) December 14, 2024
THE WHISPER
JEWELLERY (Race 5 No.3) was never on the track last start but still had the temerity to loom up as a winning chance halfway down the straight before, understandably, she faded slightly for third to Disneck. The Godolphin mare also raced without luck when resuming but it is worth remembering she produced a career-best third-up last preparation when she romped home at Caulfield. Jewellery gets in well at the weights after the claim and is ready to win.
A day of great finishes at Randwick, and the last is no different with Disneck winning in a photo - giving @BBakerRacing a treble for the day!@JoshuaParr8 | @aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/zFnP6stJnt
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) December 14, 2024
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THE VALLEY TIPS
THE BEST BET
FICKLE (Race 6 No.1) is in great touch with three wins and two seconds from five starts this campaign. She is creeping up in the weights but has drawn the inside barrier and has the tactical early speed to take full advantage. Fickle won over The Valley 1000m course two starts back then won well at Caulfield. Champion jockey Craig Williams stays with Fickle and she will be hard to catch again.
Fickle holds Rewards And More at bay, winning as the long odds on favourite 💨@dabernigracing collect a race-to-race double at the Caulfield Heath ✌ï¸@CWilliamsJockeypic.twitter.com/yT7pL6C2H6
— Racing.com (@Racing) December 12, 2024
NEXT BEST
BOLD SOUL (Race 9 No.10) is the Tasmanian Derby winner last season who is building a good race record with five wins and four placings from his 11 starts. There has been a lot to like about his two runs back this campaign, particularly his most recent effort when he ran on strongly from well back on the turn for third to Dublin Journal at Ballarat over 2000m in very fast time. Fitter for two runs from a spell and he is nicely in at the weights for a multiple stakes winner.
Dublin Journal storms through the pack to win at the massive price 🤑@DylanBrowneMcM is three-from-three aboard the 7YO gelding 🔥@lindsayparkrace has a Ballarat double âœŒï¸ pic.twitter.com/1EwTup7UYb
— Racing.com (@Racing) December 7, 2024
VALUE BET
BRITISH COLUMBIA (Race 7 No.4) has been improved by two runs from a spell and wasn’t beaten far at Caulfield last start when fifth over 1500m. He’s getting up his right distance range and third-up last campaign he scored easily over 1700m at Caulfield. British Columbia has raced well at The Valley previously and is good value at $10.
"Up to 1700m and lapped it up."
— Racing.com (@Racing) July 13, 2024
The big boy, British Columbia, is back in the winner's circle 💪 @Grahame_Beggpic.twitter.com/LEH8lO1BXr
THE WHISPER
JAZZCLUB (Race 5 No.12) showed promise in a two-start winter campaign, winning easily on debut Seymour over 1300m then third as favourite in a strong form race at Sandown. The Ciaron Maher-trained three-year-old resumes against older, more experienced rivals but he has plenty of talent and he’s won two Cranbourne jump-outs to prepare for his return.
Jazzclub makes it a winning debut for @cmaherracing under the urgings of @Brown_ethan8 🎶 pic.twitter.com/JZ4AmIngr2
— Racing.com (@Racing) July 2, 2024
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TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS
ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1: Gallo Nero has firmed from $6 to $4.40 after a $3000 bet at $4.40
Race 2: Sir Remlap $8-$7, Shropshire Lad $15-$7
Race 3: Silvanito $6-$5, It’s A Wonder $8-$6
Race 4: Point And Shoot $15-$4, Unconquerable $11-$7.50
Race 5: Jewellery $3.60-$2.80, Queen Of The Mile $8-$5, Anavinci $11-$7.50, Left Field $11-$8
Race 6: Disneck $8-$5
Race 7: Midnight Opal $4.60-$4, August Bloom $8-$7, High Blue Sea $15-$7.50
Race 8: Saltcoats $3.60-$3.20, Bullets High $6-$5.50, Soldier Of Rome $15-$10
Race 9: Darling Downs $6-$4.20, Justela $11-$10
THE VALLEY
Race 1: Lodbrok $7.50-$6.50
Race 2: Regor $8.50-$6.50
Race 3: Boltsaver $5-$4.20, Georgie Get Mad $8-$6
Race 4: Rubiquity $8-$6, Stormbourg $7.50-$6.50, Acta Non Verba $11-$9
Race 5: Mytemptation $4.60-$3.70, Thailess $8.50-$5
Race 6: Fickle $3-$2.40, Mighty $7.50-$6.50
Race 7: Princeofnottingham $14-$9.50, British Columbia $12-$9.50
Race 8: Howlin’ Rain $10-$7.50, Pure Grunt $9-$7.50, Purveyor $9-$8
Race 9: Ain’tnodeeldun $5.50-$4.20, First Immortal $6.50-$5.50
Race 10: Apache Song $4.20-$3.90, Major Share $7-$5
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INTERSTATE MAIL
• Eagle Farm Race 7 No.5 RAIKKONEN
• Eagle Farm Race 9 No.9 BELVEDERE BOYS
• Morphettville Race 5 No.4 EROICA
• Morphettville Race 8 No.2 RUBAMOS
• EXPERT TIPS: Heath Pope’s best bets for Morphettville on Saturday
PROVINCIAL MAIL
• Kembla Grange Race 2 No.9 SYNERGIZE
• Kembla Grange Race 7 No.8 I AM WILD
• EXPERT TIPS: Greg Polson’s race-by-race tips, rated prices for Randwick and Kembla Grange
#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners
Originally published as THE LAST SAY: Tips, market movers, inside mail for today’s racing
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