Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances for the Run To The Rose meeting at Rosehill to help you find some winners.

Espiona could have too much class in her return in the Sheraco Stakes at Rosehill. Picture: Mark Evans-Getty Images

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central form expert Ron Dufficy analyse the chances on the 10-race program at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

R4 No.5: HAMERON

R8 No.4: MR MOZART

VALUE BET

R2 No.2: BLACK DUKE

R1: TAB HIGHWAY (1400m)

RON DUFFICY: This is a typical tough Highway and I have a slight leaning to Keen Contributer. I thought it was a good win first-up with a big weight at Scone. He was good in a Highway last preparation and barrier one over 1400m appeals. Baledon continues to improve. I know he was well ridden last start but he might still be on the rise. Zaru is racing well and gets the right run with the claim for Dylan Gibbons. Miss Thatcher is an interesting runner and landed some good bets winning last start.

RAY THOMAS: Baledon found the line strongly to win a Class 2 Highway over this course and distance. He goes up to a Class 3 but carries the same weight again and will be very hard to beat. Keen Contributer was impressive at Scone first-up and he can only improve. Xtra Approval and Airliner have both drawn wide but they are racing well and appeal as each way chances.

R2: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200m)

DUFFICY: I think there is one at odds that will run boldly here in Black Duke. His best run last preparation was winning first-up. He’s in a new stable now but this is a winnable race and his trial was good. Kipsbay is the one that worries me most. I know he has an awkward draw but he was impressive winning first-up at Gosford and some of the form around him last preparation is very good. Daralina Belle hasn’t quite gone on with the job after winning her first three starts but she is capable and the draw suits. Mayrose has good second-up form, has a bit of a class edge on this lot although I’m concerned about the wide barrier.

THOMAS: Eyewitness raced on the speed and was in contention for a long way before tiring near the line to finish a close fifth at the Kensington midweeks. Fitter now, well placed back in a Highway and should get the right run. Concocted scored a strong win at Hawkesbury, he drops 3kg, is favourably drawn and over the odds. Daralina Belle is a consistent mare and this looks the right race for her. Cecilia can run a competitive race at big odds.

R3: RANVET HANDICAP (2400m)

DUFFICY: I’m going with Monfelicity. She has had the 2400m run in her legs now and with a bit of speed up front she gets last look at them. First Light is getting out to right distance now from a good draw and Impulsar is hard to knock as he’s won three from four in Australia but he is up in weight. Oz Legend is slowly improving and suited at this distance.

THOMAS: We are on the same page with Monfelicity. She looked set to win at Randwick but Impulsar out-stayed her. Monfelicity meets Impulsar better at the weights and is at her peak after four runs from a spell. Impulsar keeps grinding away and will be hard to beat again. First Light is working up to a win and looms as a definite chance. Lord Desinamaux ran out 2400m strongly at Warwick Farm and is a lightweight chance.

Monfelicity looks ready to win again. Picture: Mark Evans-Getty Images

R4: DOWNLOAD THE TAB APP HCP (1800m)

DUFFICY: This looks a beautiful race for Hameron. He’s had a month off and a trial win since beating a subsequent winner last start. He’s very progressive and gets the perfect run on the back of Fun Fact here. His stablemate Kalino is going well. He is up to 1800m now but should be around the mark. Fun Fact does get control up front and a drying track would help his chances. Pink Ivory is out of the midweeks but she ran right through the line first-up and looks to have come up well.

THOMAS: I’m going for value with Casino Kid at $14. He always finishes his races off strongly as he has done the last two starts over the Randwick mile course, winning strongly second-up before his second behind Niffler. The step up to 1800m is ideal and he will be hard to hold out again. Obviously, Hameron will be hard to beat and he could easily blow this field away. Bazooka and Kalino are both racing in top form.

R5: GREG DAVIS HANDICAP (1100m)

DUFFICY: I’ve got a slight leading for Clemenceau mainly because of the map factor. I think he gets the perfect run on the speed here and will be hard to beat. His main danger is his stablemate, Remarque. He has promised so much and I’m happy to give him another chance first-up as a gelding. Heresy is capable and was unlucky in the Light Fingers Stakes first-up last preparation. Bacchanalia has a bit of work to do from the draw.

THOMAS: Team Hawkes has two talented sprinters in Clemenceau and Remarque. I’ve also gone Clemenceau’s way as the barrier draw has been kind to him and he will get every chance. Remarque has been brilliant at the trials and could finally be ready to realise his potential. Burning Crown is down in the weights and can run well while Tristate’s first-up run was encouraging.

Clemenceau can return a winner with the perfect run. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

R6: MING DYNASTY QUALITY (1400m)

DUFFICY: Chris Waller has his two big middle distance three-year-old guns here with Conqueror and Osipenko. Conqueror is back on track. It might have backfired running him first-up at 1400m and he’s had a couple of barrier trials since. He looks perfectly placed from the inside draw. I’m terrified of his stablemate Osipenko. He’s a very good horse and is a terrific winning chance. Zou Tiger is up and running, he’s got style and substance to take the next step here. Golden Mile over-achieved running well first-up and if he reproduces he’s certainly in the finish again.

THOMAS: Conqueror has been back to the trials since that barrier mishap forced his withdrawal at Rosehill two weeks ago. He’s a promising colt and should get the run of the race from barrier three. There are plenty of dangers in a deep race including Golden Mile who ran a blinder first-up. Zou Tiger was brilliant first-up and unbeaten Flag Of Honour has plenty of upside.

R7: RUN TO THE ROSE (1200m)

DUFFICY: Most of these I can make a solid case for, it’s a good race. I’ve settled on Nettuno. I thought he was terrific first-up, he maps well behind the leaders here and gets every opportunity to put his hand up. There are a couple of good longshots here including Promitto. He wasn’t wound up when he resumed and is a big improver at 1200m. Sejardan has to go back from his draw but he’s a good colt resuming and there are positive reports from the stable. In Secret should be more switched on today and she should get a charmed run from this draw.

THOMAS: Sejardan was arguably the best juvenile colt of his generation last season and had no luck when unplaced in the Golden Slipper. He has been flying in his barrier trials but his outside barrier is a leveller. I expect Sejardan will get back early but he always finishes his races off strongly. In Secret didn’t have the best of luck first-up but she has drawn nicely and has the talent to win this race. Fireburn was the nation’s best two-year-old last season and the rain-affected conditions are ideal. Best Of Bordeaux will be ridden with purpose early and is expected to run a much improved race.

R8: THEO MARKS STAKES (1300m)

DUFFICY: Mr Mozart should go close to winning. He ambled past them in that recent trial, it was out of this world. He’s come back well and looks very hard to beat. I think Kementari might be his danger. He’s a proven fresh performer, his trial was nice. Ellsberg is very likeable with his unbeaten first-up record but I thought Mr Mozart made him look a bit ordinary in the last 100m of their trial. We know Jamaea will come with her customary late finish.

THOMAS: I found it hard to split Ellsberg and Mr Mozart. I’ve gone for Ellsberg mainly because of his unbeaten first-up record, he excels at Rosehill, the race distance is perfect and he handles soft-heavy track. You could make a similar case for Mr Mozart and, as you pointed out Ronnie, his trials have been outstanding. Jamaea will be giving Ellsberg and Mr Mozart a start from the turn but she will be charging home. Kementari isn’t getting any younger but invariably sprints well fresh.

Mr Mozart caught the eye in his trial. Picture: Jenny Evans-Getty Images

R9: SHERACO STAKES (1200m)

DUFFICY: I’m looking forward to this race. Espiona needs a good ride but if she gets one then I feel she is ready to explode. She is a good mare resuming off a big win, the map looks a bit tricky for her but if she gets the right run I’m certain she will go close. Another horse that interests me is My Whisper. She did a great job last preparation and her form says she wants further but she has trialled so well I have to include her. Shades Of Rose, no knock on her, she’s a brilliant mare with a great record but there is speed drawn underneath her which is a little concerning. Sky Command went better than what it reads on paper first-up and she could surprise.

THOMAS: I’m also in Espiona’s corner. She is a huge talent blessed with brilliant acceleration and provided the track isn’t in the heavy range, she has the class edge. Shades Of Rose has raced her way through the classes brilliantly this preparation and deserves her chance at stakes level. She does have a race fitness edge over Espiona which could be decisive. It’s Me was brilliant first-up and has the ability to mix it at this level. I’ve also got the promising My Whisper in my numbers.

R10: ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HCP (1500m)

DUFFICY: Arnold is the one I like. I was impressed with the way he savaged the line at the midweeks and I think there is more to come from him. The same applies to Waterford who did everything right winning last start. He is sneaking up in the weights but has to be respected. Gracilistyla is well set up after two runs back from a spell. Tamerlane was very good after enduring a wide run in Melbourne last start and that form has been franked.

THOMAS: I’ve gone the other way with Waterford over Arnold. Waterford found the line strongly first-up to win at Rosehill, defying the track bias to score. He’s got a favourable draw and can continue his winning momentum. Arnold has to overcome an awkward draw but he’s a promising young horse and is right in this race. Tamerlane and Gracilistyla will have their admirers.

Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis