Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy runner-by-runner Golden Eagle guide plus best bets and analysis

Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy rate the chances of each runner in the $10m Golden Eagle, plus their top tips in every race at Rosehill.

Silver Eagle winner Vilana is among the top contenders for the Golden Eagle at Rosehill but has copped a wide barrier. Picture: Getty Images

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances of every runner in the $10m Golden Eagle, plus debate all the big race chances at Rosehill Gardens and Flemington on a Super Saturday of racing.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

R3 No.4: WATERFORD

NEXT BEST

R8 No.12: LIGHT INFANTRY

RAY’S BEST

R5 No.9: MARS MISSION

VALUE BET

R8 No.17: GYPSY GODDESS

R8: GOLDEN EAGLE (1500m)

1. OVERPASS

Recent form: 57x266

Trainer: Bjorn Baker. Jockey: Rachel King

Record: 18: starts: 5-3-0

Major wins: Expressway Stakes

RON DUFFICY: Overpass adds plenty of interest with Everest form. He just needs to show he can run the 1500m right out to be very competitive from his good draw.

RAY THOMAS: Overpass comes out of The Everest so he has been battle-hardened this spring. He’s a talented galloper who defeated Anamoe in the Expressway earlier this year. His good draw is a huge advantage.

2. CONVERGE

Recent form: 20x690

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Jockey: Regan Bayliss

Record: 16 starts: 4-3-3

Major wins: Randwick Guineas, JJ Atkins

DUFFICY: Converge has been out of sorts on the wet tracks this spring. This has been his main target all along but he is hard to have on his current form.

THOMAS: Converge has been set for this race but his recent form is well below his best. The likelihood of a fast pace and firmer track is in his favour. On his best form, he is way over the odds.

3. IN THE CONGO

Recent form: 329x62

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Jockey: Tim Clark

Record: 12 starts: 3-5-1

Major wins: Golden Rose Stakes, San Domenico Stakes

DUFFICY: In The Congo is a terrific horse going for the big double, Golden Rose into Golden Eagle. I can see a little bit of value in him as he seems to map perfectly and he’s ready to peak third-up from a spell.

THOMAS: In The Congo won the Golden Rose over 1400m on this track last spring. He’s working his way back to that form again with his last start Sydney Stakes second. His stamina reserves will be tested but the barrier draw gives him every chance.

4. VILANA

Recent form: 1518x1

Trainer: James Cummings. Jockey: Nash Rawiller

Record: 8 starts: 5-1-0

Major wins: Silver Eagle, South Pacific Classic

DUFFICY: Everyone was warming to him until the barrier draw. He is a brute of a horse with a very good record and he’s unbeaten second-up from a spell. With any luck from the outside draw he will be in the finish.

THOMAS: Vilana monstered his rivals in the Silver Eagle when resuming. The Godolphin galloper is very talented but he has drawn the extreme outside barrier and will need everything to go right.

5. I WISH I WIN

Recent form: 23x115

Trainer: Peter Moody. Jockey: Luke Nolen

Record: 12 starts: 4-4-2

Major wins: Testa Rossa Stakes

DUFFICY: I really like I Wish I Win. He was terrific winning at Sandown two starts back but he might have been a little flat when up in distance last start. He’s going to be suited by the fast tempo and I’m expecting a big finish.

THOMAS: I Wish I Win was very impressive winning the Testa Rossa then wasn’t at his best in the Toorak. This race will be run at a solid pace which suits him. Expect him to be charging to the line.

I Wish I Win can bounce back in the Golden Eagle after a flat run last start. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

6. MR MOZART

Recent form: 111x22

Trainer: Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes. Jockey: Brenton Avdulla

Record: 14 starts: 5-3-0

Major wins: Phar Lap Stakes, Doncaster Prelude, Hawkesbury Guineas

DUFFICY: Loaded with talent, Mr Mozart has been lacking a bit of concentration in his races. If he puts his mind on the job, he will run well but the barrier is the concern now. He’s going to need to do a lot of work early.

THOMAS: Mr Mozart won three straight stakes races to close out his three-year-old season and his two runs back have resulted in very good seconds this spring. Racing in great form but the barrier is the concern.

7. HILAL

Recent form: 7x9400

Trainer: Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes. Jockey: Jay Ford

Record: 18 starts: 3-4-2

Major wins: Stan Fox Stakes, Bondi Stakes

DUFFICY: Hilal has been off the boil lately. He hasn’t won in a while now and needs to improve a lot on his recent runs. The wide barrier doesn’t help his chances either.

THOMAS: Hilal was competitive at a very high level last season but he has been below par this spring. He is not as effective on wet tracks so capable of improvement but hard to see him winning this race.

8. MILITARY EXPERT

Recent form: x11237

Trainer: Annabel Neasham. Jockey: Tommy Berry

Record: 15 starts: 4-4-2

Best Performances: Third Toorak Handicap, second Sandown Stakes

DUFFICY: Military Expert was very good until last week when he really struggled on the heavy track. He can improve on the dry track and he is a winner over the track and distance.

THOMAS: His poor run at Moonee Valley on a very testing track is not an ideal lead-up into such a tough race as the Golden Eagle. The drier track will help but he has drawn off the track.

9. LIGHTSABER

Recent form: 0x9806

Trainer: Peter Moody. Jockey: Tom Sherry

Record: 17 starts: 4-2-0

Major wins: VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes, Caulfield Guineas Prelude

DUFFICY: Lightsaber had been disappointing but he did run a better race last start. He showed promise as a younger horse but would need to produce a career-best effort to win this race.

THOMAS: Lightsaber won the Guineas Prelude and ran fourth to Anamoe in the Caulfield Guineas last year. He also ran second in the Australian Guineas behind Hitotsu in autumn. On his day, he’s capable but he’s been struggling this spring.

10. PINSTRIPED

Recent form: 50x236

Trainer: Enver Jusufovic. Jockey: Sam Clipperton

Record: 8 starts: 3-1-1

Major wins: CS Hayes Stakes

DUFFICY: Pinstriped is a nice type. His three runs back from a spell have been good and he’s not the worst in this race.

THOMAS: Pinstriped likes to settle off speed but he does find the line well. His form this spring is sound but he is getting beaten in easier races.

Pinstriped looks ready to peak now. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

11. BRIGANTINE

Scratched.

12. LIGHT INFANTRY

Recent form: x9x22x

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. Jockey: Jamie Spencer

Record: 5 starts: 2-2-0

Major wins: Second Prix Jean Prat, Prix Haras De Freshna

DUFFICY: Light Infantry is a young import with some fantastic form overseas. He appears a very progressive horse with some great formlines in some good races. He might be just too good for them.

THOMAS: Light Infantry is still a three-year-old by northern hemisphere time so he gets a 1kg weight allowance. He’s run successive seconds in Group 1 races in France and comes here with a big reputation. The one to beat.

Light Infantry brings some strong overseas form. Picture: Jeremy Piper

13. WELWAL

Recent form: x2160x

Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Frankie Dettori

Record: 7 starts: 3-2-0

Major wins: Prix de Fontainebleu

DUFFICY: He’s a very interesting French import loaded with talent as well. He has lured Frankie Dettori to town, this distance is ideal and he has some Group form.

THOMAS: Welwal was a much as $101 for the Golden Eagle two weeks ago but he’s at $17 now. His two trials since joining the Chris Waller stable have been eye-catching and he looms as a big chance.

14. HINGED

Recent form: 24x533

Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Record: 18 starts: 6-4-3

Major wins: Surround Stakes

DUFFICY: Hinged is a very good mare, she has been competing at the top level, handles all conditions and is strong. The question is what happens from her wide draw.

THOMAS: Hinged ran very well in the Epsom, beaten narrowly into third placing. She’s a very good mare who never runs a bad race but her outside barrier is the concern. If she gets any luck in running, she can be in the finish.

15. FANGIRL

Recent form: 10x256

Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Hugh Bowman

Record: 13 starts: 5-1-1

Major wins: Vinery Stakes, Light Fingers Stakes

DUFFICY: Fangirl has been badly hampered by wet tracks at her last two starts. Her first-up run behind Anamoe first-up on the drier track is great form for this race.

THOMAS: Agree, Fangirl has been by the wet tracks and will appreciate getting back to a track rated close to the good range. She’s a quality mare but is also drawn right off the track next to Hinged.

16. CHAIN OF LIGHTNING

Recent form: x11131

Trainer: Peter Moody. Jockey: Jamie Kah

Record: 7 starts: 6-0-1

Major wins: Tristarc Stakes, Cockram Stakes

DUFFICY: Interesting mare with a great record. Her only defeat was on a heavy 9 but she is back on a firmer track here and looked strong winning over 1400m last start. She has been a big market mover.

THOMAS: Chain Of Lightning began her career on New Year’s Day with a win in an Inverell maiden. Seven starts later, she has won six races and lines up in a $10 million race as a winning chance. She’s very talented and drawn to get the right run.

17. GYPSY GODDESS

Recent form: 13221x

Trainer: David Vandyke. Jockey: William Pike

Record: 9 starts: 6-2-1

Major wins: Queensland Oaks, Grand Prix Stakes

DUFFICY: Gypsy Goddess is unbeaten fresh, trainer David Vandyke knows this mare so well, and this has been the plan all along to go first-up into the Golden Eagle. Willie Pike has stuck by her and she was brilliant winning at a mile first-up last preparation.

THOMAS: Gypsy Goddess won the Queensland Oaks to end her three-year-old season and resumes first-up in the Golden Eagle. She is very effective fresh and this race sets up nicely for her to unleash her powerful finishing surge.

Gypsy Goddess has an unbeaten first-up record. Picture: Trackside Photography

18. LADY OF HONOUR

Recent form: x71233

Trainer: Ben and JD Hayes. Jockey: Jake Noonan

Record: 9 starts: 4-2-2

Major wins: Twilight Glow Stakes

DUFFICY: Lady Of Honour is a genuine, on-pace mare. I’m not sure where she fits in but she has earned her spot in the field. Her middle draw suits her.

THOMAS: Lady Of Honour has been racing well in strong grade this spring with minor placings in the Stocks Stakes, Let’s Elope Stakes and Moonga Stakes in successive starts. She has good tactical speed and is over the odds.

19. LAVISH GIRL

Recent form: 417x27

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. Jockey: Keagan Latham

Record: 12 starts: 3-2-1

Major wins: Angus Armanasco Stakes

DUFFICY: She was OK in the Silver Eagle when she had to do all that work going forward early. She’s an underrated mare and will give some cheek for a long way.

THOMAS: Lavish Girl beat home Chain Of Lightning when second in the How Now Stakes then had excuses last start in the Silver Eagle. There’s been a push for her at big odds.

20. HOPE IN YOUR HEART

Recent form: 0x8111

Trainer: Kerry Parker. Jockey: Jason Collett

Record: 17 starts 5-1-2

Major wins: Angst Quality Handicap, Tibbie Stakes

DUFFICY: This is her stiffest test to date but I can’t deny this mare’s courage and will-to-win. She’s won three in succession and I can’t say no about her chances.

THOMAS: Hope In Your Heart has put a “picket fence’’ next to her name this spring with three very good wins. She’s likely to settle midfield at best but will be strong through the line. I feel she is the best of the outsiders.

21. CARDINAL GEM

Recent form: 412311

Trainer: Graham Begg. Jockey: Jordan Childs

Record: 15 starts: 4-3-2

Major wins: Weekend Hussler Stakes

DUFFICY: Cardinal Gem is an in-form Victorian with a big finish. He’s very consistent but this is obviously a much stiffer test for him.

THOMAS: Cardinal Gem continues to improve and broke through at stakes level last start when he hit the line hard to win the Weekend Hussler Stakes. Drawn well and should get the right run. Good each way chance.

22. JIMMY THE BEAR

Recent form: 121133

Trainer: Patrick Payne. Jockey: TBC

Record: 12 starts: 6-2-2

Best performances: Third Weekend Hussler Stakes, Third Heatherlie Handicap

DUFFICY: Jimmy The Bear is very genuine, he has a good winning strike-rate but I prefer others in this race.

THOMAS: Jimmy The Bear wasn’t beaten far when third to Cardinal Gem in the Weekend Hussler. He’s a consistent galloper but this is a tough ask.

Jimmy The Bear has a good winning strike-rate but this is a step up. Picture: Getty Images

23. FLYING CRAZY

Recent form: 184x00

Trainer: Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou. Jockey: Keagan Latham

Record: 15 starts: 5-0-2

Major wins: Daybreak Lover Stakes, Canberra Guineas, Luskin Star Stakes

DUFFICY: Flying Crazy is a better horse than what his two runs suggest this campaign. He’s still hard to have in this very good race.

THOMAS: Flying Crazy has ability as he showed last season winning three stakes races including the Luskin Star Stakes. He’s been struggling this spring but the drier track is in his favour.

24. KISS SUM

Recent form: 2221x5

Trainer: Tracey Bartley. Jockey: Jason Collett

Record: 14 starts: 4-4-0

Major wins: The Four Pillars, Gunsynd Classic

DUFFICY: Kiss Sum is an underrated horse. I thought he was great first-up in the Silver Eagle and is a good long shot.

THOMAS: Kiss Sum didn’t have a lot of galloping room in the Silver Eagle and should have finished closer than fifth to Vilana. He’s a talented horse and can run a competitive race if he gets a start.

Golden Eagle summary:

RON DUFFICY: I’m been brainwashed into this European Light Infantry. The set-up is good, the vibes are positive, he’s settled in well and he has the best form. The danger is I Wish I Win. He’s getting out to good odds now and if you forgive his last start defeat he would be one of the favourites. Welwal has Group form overseas in the right races so I’m respecting him. Vilana would have been higher up on the list from a better draw but he is the forgotten horse now.

RAY THOMAS: In a very deep race, I’m with Gypsy Goddess. She’s never missed a place in nine starts, winning six including the Queensland Oaks. She is unbeaten first-up, the fast tempo will suit her and she will be charging to the line. Light Infantry is a firming favourite on the back of some very impressive European form. He’s the one to beat. Mr Mozart is in very good form but the wide barrier is the concern. In The Congo is going to be in front for a long way.

ROSEHILL GUINEAS

R1: TAB Highway (1200m)

RON DUFFICY: A very tough Highway. I like the Scone horses here and I’m leaning to The Dramatist. He was hampered by wet tracks last preparation and I didn’t mind his trial leading into this race. The danger is Salire if he gets a run. He’s had a trial since his last start and is ready to win. Sungblue is a huge query. He showed talent last time in and has had a soft trial leading into this race. Sir Ravanelli is an honest Highway horse.

RAY THOMAS: This is a race loaded with chances and sets the tone for this meeting. King Gutho has returned in very good order, winning brilliantly first-up then ran well second under a big weight on a wet track last start. The firmer track suits here. Limited Reality is lightly-raced but has talent, strips fitter and has the right draw. Ezekeil has been good in both runs since resuming and can improve. Sungblue is a smart sprinter resuming but should go well fresh.

R2: The Agency Real Estate Hcp (1200m)

DUFFICY: Party For One has had excuses galore so far this preparation and is going much better than her form suggests. This might be her day. Fumiko is a dry tracker who was solid winning first-up in Queensland. Va Via is down in the weights and has been racing well without winning. Plymstock is another Godolphin filly who should run well with her lightweight.

THOMAS: I’ve gone with Va Via. She was placed behind The Everest runner Joyful Fortune then ran second to Audette at Warwick Farm. Audette has since won again to frank the form. Va Via gets in with only 52kg and looks hard to beat. Party For One is bursting to win a race and this her chance. She should get clear air from the turn and will be finishing hard. Plymstock is lightly raced, will be fitter and also gets in well on the limit. Fumiko was good first-up and is an improver.

R3: Furphy Hcp (1500m)

DUFFICY: Waterford is the bet of the day. He was luckless in the Silver Eagle at 1300m but his two previous wins over this course and distance were outstanding. Although he has enough weight he will be very hard to beat. Loch Eagle wasn’t suited last start but his previous win was outstanding. Rangi Toa is resuming and has upside. Global Ausbred ran out of his skin at $201 first-up and if he can reproduce that run he will be hard to beat.

THOMAS: It’s hard to tip against Waterford. As you pointed out Ronnie, he looked very good winning successive Rosehill 1500m races then had no luck in the Silver Eagle. The stewards wrote a book about Waterford’s woes last star. He should bounce back. Rangi Toa resumes here but is likely to control the tempo up front and will run well. Loch Eagle gets the claim, he’s a promising horse and will be hitting the line hard. Miss Madison is a mare in great form.

Waterford didn’t have much luck in the Silver Eagle. Picture: Getty Images

R4: Precise Air Hcp (1900m)

DUFFICY: I’m with Hameron, I want to give him another chance. This is the right style of race for him and the blinkers are going back on. I think back in distance suits. The danger is Pink Ivory. It was a total forgive run on that bog track last start and she is back to the scene of the crime when she won two starts back. Gin Martini is ticking along very nicely and has to be respected. Ting Tong might be better on wet tracks but it was a comprehensive win last start.

THOMAS: Pink Ivory attacked the line strongly to win over 1800m here then struggled in the very heavy conditions at Randwick. She’s much better suited here and can bounce back. I’m wary of your selection, Hameron, who is back in his right grade here. Gin Martini is peaking now and is the big improver. Pale King in the weights and is an each way chance.

R5: New TAB App Hcp (1100m)

DUFFICY: Winning Verse has had five weeks and an excellent trial since a great run first-up. She looks hard to beat. Mars Mission is the danger. Nothing went right for him first-up and he gets in light from the better draw. Monte Ditto is off a short break and had a nice trial win leading into this race. Delexio has had two trials and is a talented horse but I wish this was 1000m not 1100m for him.

THOMAS: Mars Mission drew wide and was ridden conservatively first-up but he didn’t get clear galloping room in the straight and was doing his best work on the line when a close third at the midweeks. He’s a promising horse, suited back on top of the ground and well in at the weights after the claim. Delexio is very fast and will take catching. Winning Verse was very good first-up and rates highly here. Capital Reign is capable of running well at big odds.

R6: Rosehill Gold Cup (2000m)

DUFFICY: I’m with Honeycreeper. I know she is taking on the boys here but she is ready to peak on the dry track and will be hard to hold out with the lightweight. I’m wary of Bois D’Argent. Looking at his replays he has very solid fresh form and is in astute hands. There is a chance he might be too good for them. Stockman is absolutely flying and I know this is tick-over run for the Melbourne Cup but he is good enough to be in the finish. This has been a target race for Pinarello and I can see him improving.

THOMAS: Quality Time has won three races on the bounce including the Port Macquarie Cup with ease last start. This is harder again but he’s in the zone. Bois D’Argent has a very good record in Europe, finishing in the placings in all 12 starts including four wins, and he has raced at a high level. He’s hard to beat. Honeycreeper has been improved by two runs from a spell. Star Of India has been working very well at Canterbury and he’s right in this race.

Honeycreeper looks ready to win third-up. Picture: Getty Images

R7: Nature Strip Stakes (1300m)

Dufficy: I have to lean to Lost And Running, Ray. It was only a small setback at the wrong time on Everest morning and he’s had a tick over trial since. The 1300m is ideal, good draw and good map, he’s getting all the ticks. Mazu got further back than expected in The Everest but this look ideal from the good draw and he’s a big danger. Masked Crusader finally gets a better track and we might see the best of him. Eduardo is too good a horse to dismiss off one run and this style of race, with no pressure, means he is going to be hard to run down.

THOMAS: Lost And Running edged out Mazu in the Premiere Stakes before that little setback which forced him out of The Everest. Lost And Running has had a trial since, he’s better suited at 1300m and gets the dry track he prefers. Mazu is the danger again. His run in The Everest was outstanding and he’s also going to enjoy this track and distance. Private Eye comes off his super run in The Everest and he could finish over the top of these. Masked Crusader is capable of anything on his day and finally gets conditions to suit. I’ve left out Eduardo and he could easily win this race.

R9: Four Pillars Midway (1500m)

DUFFICY: This is impossible. I’m having a throw at the stumps with Oakfield Arrow. She’s a mare that likes Rosehill, she’s trialled well since her last start, they have utilised an astute claim here and she meets Mahagoni 6kg better for a four lengths defeat. I’m gambling she can get across and run a really good race on speed. Kayobi is the spruik horse. He’s a well-bred, lightly-raced gelding heading in the right direction but the little query going from 1200m straight to 1500m. Mahagoni is hard to knock even with the 64kg but the bottom weight is 57.5kg. Sebrenco sets up well here with a couple of really good recent runs.

THOMAS: Kayobi was a dominant first-up winner at Kembla, coming from off speed and finishing strongly. I concede he is getting to 1500m quickly but he’s an emerging horse. Burning Need is in the best form of her career and is over the odds. Mahagoni is also in great touch but the big weight is a leveller. Adios Steve is a confident horse with a real chance at completing a hat-trick of wins.

R10: Ned Australian Whisky Hcp (1300m)

DUFFICY: I think the stablemates can fight this out, I Am Lethal and Cotehele. I Am Lethal is a dry tracker and was giving away an impossible start from a wide draw last start. He is much better placed here from barrier two. Cotehele has the right formlines and is a big threat. Ma And Pa didn’t come up last campaign but his trials have been good and he has enough talent if he finds his old form. Democracy Manifest was unsuited last start but his previous first-up win was impressive.

THOMAS: Democracy Manifest wasn’t suited when the race developed into a sprint home last start and he will get the tempo he needs here. He scored impressively first-up and can bounce back. Stromboli is racing in very good form and from his favourable draw he will be in this for a long way. I Am Lethal finally gets back onto a firm track and Black Duke can run a race at odds.

Cotehele is a good chane in the last race at Rosehill. Picture: Getty Images

FLEMINGTON

R6: Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m)

DUFFICY: I have to be with In Secret. This has been a target race, the vibes are positive, James McDonald is airborne at the moment and she has drawn in the middle which I feel is OK for her. Jacquinot comes off a very good Everest run which has to shape up here and he did beat In Secret in the Golden Rose. Buenos Noches is a likeable horse with form around Giga Kick and you could argue he should have beaten him last start. Best Of Bordeaux will give some cheek on the quick back-up.

THOMAS: I found it hard to split In Secret and Jacquinot. I’ve sided with In Secret who is a huge talent and has been set for this race since her close second to Jacquinot in the Golden Rose. As for Jacquinot, he was arguably the unlucky runner in The Everest and will be charging home again. Buenos Noches is an underrated but emerging young sprinter and Sejardan is on the quick back-up after his good win last week.

R7: Victoria Derby (2500m)

DUFFICY: I’ve got to go with Sharp ‘N’ Smart. He should get the right run from the good draw, he’s unbeaten as a three-year-old and he has a lot of upside. Berkeley Square is in outstanding form and is hard to knock off his Vase win. Pericles has burst onto the scene and I thought he did an excellent job behind Berkeley Square considering he was 1400m to 2000m last start. Manzoice looks a real stayer and is the best longshot.

THOMAS: Berkeley Square impressed me the way he attacked the line to win the Vase last week. He’s going to enjoy the Derby’s testing 2500m. The same applies to Sharp ‘N’ Smart. His effort to endure a wide run and win the Spring Champion Stakes last week was outstanding. Mr Maestro keeps winning and Grand Pierro showed his staying qualities to win the Geelong Classic.

R8: Empire Rose Stakes (1600m)

DUFFICY: I’m going for a James McDonald Group 1 treble with La Crique. She was very dominant winning in New Zealand last start, she’s stays at 1600m, she’s strong and very hard to beat. Nimalee is an iron mare, she’s a beauty and maps nicely again. If there is rain on the day Icebath can run better. Palaisipan has been racing well in some good races in Sydney and is peaking for the right day.

THOMAS: Nimalee is in great touch this spring including her Golden Pendant win and close third in The Invitation last start. Her form reads well for this race and she has drawn to get the gun run. La Crique comes here with a huge reputation and just might blow this field away. Palaisipan is also racing in top form and Yearning is an underrated mare who might be the knockout chance.

Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy runner-by-runner Golden Eagle guide plus best bets and analysis