Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips for Rosehill on Saturday
Ron Dufficy has found a “good thing” in the last race at Rosehill on Saturday. Get Ron and Ray Thomas’ race-by-race tips and analysis.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central form expert Ron Dufficy analyse the 10-race Rosehill Gardens meeting on Saturday.
DUFF’S BEST
R5 No.3: FIDDLERS GREEN
R10 No.5: MIDNIGHT OPAL
BEST VALUE
R2 No.4: ALWAYS SURE
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Ron Dufficy: Intriguing race with lots of talent here but is hard to get away from Private Harry’s dominance winning at his two starts to date so I am leaning his way although Theblade was very impressive last prep and he’s had a nice trial leading into this and represents a good threat. Scorching Legend was ridden quietly on a drier track first-up and looked a different horse. He looks loaded with talent as well. And Manuscript looks the leader and might be a tough but to get past.
Ray Thomas: This a terrific race to open the program. Private Harry has looked well above average in his two easy wins including his last start seven lengths romp at Hawkesbury in fast time. He’s a very promising sprinter, he’s race-fit and will get the run of the race from barrier two. Theblade is also unbeaten and a definite threat to Private Harry. Theblade, who is closely related to Black Caviar, won his only start by nearly six lengths on the Kensington track during winter. He won a recent Randwick barrier trial impressively and is going to be hard to beat. Unleeshing ran on well off a slow early tempo to finish second when resuming at Rosehill and if there is to be an upset, she might be the one. Manuscript was brilliant first-up at Wyong and is not out of place here.
Dufficy: Just like one at long odds here – Always Sure. He’s had his two trials and although he is not a noted fresh performer, he does resumes at 1500m this time so there looks to be intent there and he’s got some nice strong formlines for this. Miss Hades is busting to win another race, the claim helps and she does meet Justela 4½kg better for her placing behind her last start. Justela may be still on the up. She did a good job with lovely improvement winning second-up and has a chance again. And Magnatear maps well, a little break between runs, and certainly will give a sight.
Thomas:Kingston Charm is a mare in a rich vein of form. She scored well at Hawkesbury then backed up that effort with her Four Pillars win over this course and distance. Kingston Charm defeated a smart field last start and only goes up 1kg for her attempt to complete a hat-trick of wins. Justela was very impressive finishing fast to score with authority at the Kembla Grange stand-alone meeting. She comes here third-up and should be at her peak. Miss Hades was no match for Justela last start but does meet that mare better at the weights here as you pointed out, Ronnie. Cream Rises is at big odds but is down in the weights and can sneak into the minor placings.
R3: TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1500m)
Dufficy: I know it is five weeks since Villasaurus won first-up win at Rosehill but it was a good strong win, he beat Everido that day who has since franked that form and I think he is a horse with enough talent to go on with the job. Moritz Girl was terrific at Kembla after covering ground. Kerrin McEvoy takes over and only has to reproduce those past two efforts to be close up here. In Summer is a well-bred mare still learning what it’s all about but definitely has the talent and the pedigree to really thrive with the step up in distance. And Sunchyme was just nosed out by her stablemate at Kembla but went down fighting and any luck from the draw, she’ll be among the numbers here.
Thomas:In Summer was having only her second run from a spell and although she only had a half-length to spare on the line, she dominated the race. Lightly raced by promising and should be able to take advantage of her favourable draw and settle in the front half of the field within striking distance of the leaders. Villasaurus enjoyed the gun run but dashed clear to win by more than three lengths in a Rosehill 1400m Highway when resuming last month. He’s lightly-raced, expected improvement from his first-up win and will go close. Adolphus is resuming but shows promise and 1500m first-up won’t be an issue for him. Sunchyme looked home at Kembla Grange only for stablemate Everido to get up underneath her on the line. Both of the Keith Dryden-trained Highway runners will be very competitive again.
R4: PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1800m)
Dufficy: I wish there was more speed in the race but I like Brazil here. He definitely should be unbeaten at his past three starts and he looks a horse that’s in tip-top form and he’s got more to offer so I thought there was a touch of value in him. The other one is this country horse – Tanglewood Jimmy. I know it is a much tougher grade than a Benchmark 58 last start but this horse is flying and with the lightweight, should not be undersold. Heed The Omens, at least he’s got Saturday form and he looks primed to step up in distance now after a 1400m run. He’ll be popular. And Gentileschi had little excuses in a couple of runs back and now that she’s found her right distance, she is definitely worth another chance.
Thomas:Gentileschi was back at the rear of the 16-horse field and then struck plenty of trouble in the straight and should have finished much closer than seventh in Everido’s Highway last week. She’s third-up here but won at same the stage of her preparation when last in work. Down in the weights but just needs even luck to be in the finish. Brazil should be coming to Rosehill with three consecutive wins to his credit, with a luckless second at Newcastle sandwiched between two powerful Kembla wins. He will appreciate going to 1800m. Galano didn’t hit the line as strongly as expected last start but is worth another chance as the extra distance of this race is in his favour. Expect an improved run from Sonofdec who is on the quick back-up after his fifth at Rosehill last week when he was three-wide for most of the trip.
R5: CANADIAN CLUB HANDICAP (1500m)
Dufficy: Pretty keen on Fiddlers Green here. I thought he was very good at Hawkesbury running very good late sectionals. He just needs to keep in touch here and I think he is the strongest late. The one he has got to run down is Shangri La Spring who ran slower time on the day as Fiddlers Green but at least he has style and being by Castelvecchio he will run the 1500m. Horses from this stable are hard to run down. Rezone did some nice things last prep. I know he wants further but 1500m is a nice starting point for him and the value is definitely there. And the best of the rest is Bright Red who was OK first-up at midweek level, this distance suits better, and she did win second-up last preparation.
Thomas: Fiddlers Green created a huge impression when resuming at Hawkesbury over 1400m when he put nearly six lengths on his chasing rivals and ran fast time. Promising sprinter-miler who has obviously returned in super order. This won’t be a walk in the park as Shangri La Spring is also in top form. He has won successive starts at the provincials since resuming, dominating from the front in both. He will give Fiddlers Green something to chase. Darling Downs is also racing in very good form and she ran on strongly to win on the Kensington track last start. Bright Red loomed up as a winning chance but might have peaked on her run when a comeback third here last month. She will be fitter and the extra distance is in her favour.
Dufficy: I know he’s been costly and been a beaten favourite three times in a row but Bullets High, I think just backing up on a drier track, he had just had to duck and weave there last week. With clear running here, I think he might be able to overpower them with Nash Rawiller back on board. Morryl Moral went out very hard there at Kembla and stuck on particularly well. If he can pace himself better here, he is hard to run down. Modesty is an improving import. He didn’t present to win the other day but he can bounce back because he is still early in his preparation. And Good Banter. It was a better run at Flemington last start and doesn’t have to improve much to be very competitive and has some really good old form.
Thomas: Bullets High got held up behind horses at the top of the straight then switched course and ran on late to finish within a length of the winner when fifth to Ring Me Up over 1800m last week. He is racing well and backs up here over 2000m. This is his chance. Glad You Think So is working his way back to top form and he’s out to his preferred distance range now. Modesty is showing staying potential at his first Australian campaign and should be at his peak after three runs from a spell.
R7: CAPTIVANT @ KIA ORA HANDICAP (1300m)
Dufficy: I would love to get a push for August Bloom. I know she is off a decent spell but the latest of the two trials was very good. Although she has only won one race, she is definitely a mare of some quality who I think will be hard to hold out. Drift Net loomed up and didn’t go on with the job last week. Maybe back to 1300m could be the key. How Dare You was a good thing beaten at the midweeks first-up so should come on nicely from that. And Desiah’s the other one that is looking big odds from the Maher stable. She hasn’t been let go in two trials and any confidence with her at all in the market, you could easily chime in.
Thomas:How Dare You was luckless when resuming at Canterbury where she was shuffled back to last on the turn then got held up for a run in the straight before running on for fourth at Canterbury behind Captain Amelia. She’s an underrated mare who appeals as an each-way chance in an open race. Drift Net can give Godolphin the quinella. She’s a consistent mare but is finding it hard to win. She’s rock-hard fit, on the quick back-up and is well placed back at 1300m. Captain Amelia is back in winning form and should be improved after two runs from a spell. I can understand why you are keen on August Bloom. She is a lightly-raced mare resuming but she has been trialling brilliantly.
R8: JAMES SQUIRE HANDICAP (1400m)
Dufficy: I am left with Bojangles here. I think although he is eligible for easier races, the set-up looks good – third-up, 52kg, stepping to 1400m, closer from the draw and should run well. I’mintowin was very good, toughed it out winning last start. He stays at 1400m and is well found but definitely the horse to beat. Battleton has been up a while but continues to tough it out well. Konasana wants a storm before the race because she really excels when she gets on softer tracks but the last dry track run at Cranbourne was quite solid.
Thomas: Bojangles has raced without luck in both runs this campaign, Ronnie. He ran into a couple of dead ends when resuming over 1000m at Randwick before finishing strongly late for fifth to the smart Headwall, then shouldered 60kg and got a long way back running on to be just behind the placegetters in the race won by The Novelist at Kembla Grange. Bojangles drops 8kg, gets out to 1400m and is over the odds at $10. I’mintowin led throughout and won with authority at Kembla when resuming and can only be improved. Perfect Thought ran very well when resuming behind Uzziah at Newcastle and will strip fitter. It’s been a while since he showed any form so that was an encouraging return. Spangler looked in need of the run at Newcastle but impressed with his fast finishing fifth in the Uzziah race three weeks ago and is the big improver.
R9: TOYOTA FORKLIFTS HANDICAP (1100m)
Dufficy: I think Dollar Magic is the weight horse here, 5kg difference from when she met Tristate last start and was only beaten 1¼ lengths. The map looks beautiful for her and although he is a professional placegetter, she gets a really good chance to win another race. I think Tristate is the danger. He just handed up the lead a touch quickly last week. He loves this track and distance which is always a plus. Time to Boogie is first-up from a long spell, 11 months off, so I think with this stable, usually the market tells the tale how much ion order they are. And Boston Rocks is another one who has got some really good formlines for a race like this.
Thomas:Iowna Merc had trialled superbly leading into The Warra at Kembla where he ran only fairly for eighth to Headwall. Smart sprinter with a very good second-up record and is not badly placed at the weights after the claim. He’s worth another chance. Time To Boogie is a smart sprinter resuming off two good trial efforts. He’s a noted first-up performer. Tristate is very fit and has never raced in better form. Fire Star is chasing a fourth successive win. He makes his own luck racing on speed and will be in this for a long way.
R10: ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1300m)
Dufficy: With the scratchings now, I think Midnight Opal is close to a good thing. I know he hasn’t won in a long time but he’s got the Saturday form on the board. He is second time in blinkers here, I think back to 1300m is ideal and he is the one to beat. Little Beginnings got all the favours but was tough late winning first-up. Yiska ran solid time winning first-up, although the second horse should have bolted in, but has franked the form since. And Scorch is another midweek winner who appears pretty genuine and not hopeless.
Thomas:Yiska went wide on the turn but unleashed a strong finishing surge to win well at Canterbury when resuming. The runner-up that day, Accredited, has since bolted in at Warwick Farm. Yiska gets the benefit of Zac Wadick’s 3kg claim and has drawn the inside barrier. Blazing Harry will find this easier than his last start fourth to I’mintowin. Midnight Opal is close to regain winning form after chasing hard behind I’mintowin last start, finishing in front of Blazing Harry. Scorch scored a tough first-up win at Canterbury and is open to further improvement.
Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips for Rosehill on Saturday
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