Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis for The Hunter Day at Newcastle

Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy give their top tips in every race at Newcastle.

Global Ausbred (right) is ready to peak third-up and looks hard to beat at Newcastle. Picture: Getty Images

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances for the 10-race The Hunter meeting at Newcastle on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 6, No.7: GLOBAL AUSBRED

VALUE BET

Race 5, No.7: TYMPANIST

RAY’S BEST

Race 6, No.7: GLOBAL AUSBRED

NEXT BEST

Race 7, No. 3: SAVEADATEFORME

VALUE BET

race 10, No.9: SINDACATO

NEWCASTLE

RACE 1: MAX LEES CLASSIC (900m)

Ron Dufficy: This is not an easy start, there are no standouts. I’m just guessing a bit with Bangetta. She wasn’t let go in her trial but looks a sharp filly and Kris Lees would obviously love to win this race in honour of his father. It appears Rachel King had the option of the Bjorn Baker-trained duo here and she has gone with Line Of Law so I will lean to her judgment here. Cylinder is a well-bred Godolphin improver with two trials under his belt but he needs luck from the draw. Wild Beau has only had the one trial but it was a fast trial and he deserves respect.

Ray Thomas: Godolphin has a strong hand with Ferghana and race favourite Cylinder. They trialled together at Wyong recently and although Cylinder won that trial, there wasn’t a lot between them and both look promising. Ferghana is favoured by the draw this time and that might give him the edge. I also feel Bangetta can race well here and I’ve got her splitting the Godolphin colts. Denman Star trialled nicely, is drawn well and can run competitively at odds.

Reece Jones will ride The Dramatist in the TAB Highway. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1600m)

Dufficy: The Dramatist gets to a mile quickly but he was terrific first-up running well. The big track should suit him and the drier surfaces are his go. Smooth Esprit saves his best for dry tracks, just forget all his wet track form, he should be around the mark with conditions to suit. Radiohead is going well and the better draw suits dropping in weight. He’s a winning chance. Sassy Choice makes her own luck on top of the speed and she should give a good sight.

Thomas: I’m also with The Dramatist. He charged home to just miss when resuming at Rosehill and the Newcastle 1600m course will suit. He gets back in his races but has a powerful finishing burst. Jalmari is better suited back in Highway grade and if he gets luck in running he can go close but he is hard to catch. Sabie Park had excuses when making a wide run at Dubbo and can improve from the better draw. Let Me Reign scored very easily in the Dubbo race but has drawn right off the track.

RACE 3: BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1400m)

Dufficy: French Bonnet has a bit of weight but she is unbeaten second-up and she ran so well when resuming. Thalassophile resumes off one trial and this distance looks ideal. Miss Madison is very genuine and hasn’t run a bad race in a long time although she might want it a bit softer. Short Shorts might have been a touch flattered with the bias when winning last week but she is a mare in top form.

Thomas: French Bonnet tried hard behind Cotehele when resuming at Rosehill. She finds herself in a suitable fillies and mares’ race, gets the claim and is three from three when second-up from a spell. She’s the one to beat. Miss Madison is racing very consistently and was game at Rosehill last start when fourth to Waterford in a strong form race. Short Shorts is another mare racing in top form and will be hard to beat if she can get any sort of control up front. Thalassophile can sprint well fresh.

The Kim Waugh-trained French Bonnet looks a great chance to maintain her unbeaten second-up record. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 4: THE BEAUFORD (2300m)

Dufficy: It’s a tricky race but I like Gin Martini. I know she is eligible for easier races but she was very unlucky last start, she sets up well for this in what looks a target race. I’m sure she will run boldly. King Frankel is the one to beat. He was a late scratching at the barriers last week and appears a horse on the rise but he is short enough in the market now. Chalk Stream has teased on occasions and although he is hard to trust he won’t find a more suitable race than this. Kukeracha is a different horse on a dry track and won’t know himself back to this grade.

Thomas: King Frankel is a promising stayer adapting well in his first Australian race campaign. This is his big test but he gets in with a lightweight and will be hard to beat. Gin Martini is bursting to win a race. She has had no luck in recent starts but stays under notice here. Sound Of Cannons is on the quick back-up after his close second at Rosehill last week. He’s very fit and will be competitive but he doesn’t win often. I also feel Kukeracha is working his way back into form now he is back on dry decks.

RACE 5: BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1600m)

Dufficy: I like one at double figures odds in Tympanist. I thought he did more than enough running on well when resuming in a stronger race than this and I feel he is good value. Mediaro is a horse I like. I think he has more upside than most although he might want it a touch further. Sebrenco is right at the of her game, maps nicely with the draw and the claim. Annulus beat Mediaro last start and although he has been up a while he has gate speed and is holding his form.

Thomas: Sebrenco comes out of the Four Pillars when she ran very well to finish fourth behind Oakfield Arrow, beaten less than two lengths. She’s drawn to get the right run and gets in well at the weights with the claim. Tympanist worked to the line well when resuming at Warwick Farm and will be fitter. The negatives are he is yet to be placed second-up from a spell and his best form is when there is give in the ground. Mediaro is showing potential but has to overcome the wide draw. More Sundays has been improved by recent racing and gets the firm track he prefers.

Sebrenco (purple) finishing fourth to Oakfield Arrow (green) in the Four Pillars at Rosehill last start. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 6: TRANS-TASMAN TROPHY (1850m)

Dufficy: I’m keen here on Global Ausbred. He has returned a much better horse this preparation, he has the right form and he has a lovely racing style. Bonny Ezra is the danger. It was hard to miss his first-up run when he found plenty of dead-ends, he gets James McDonald now and has to be included. Maurice’s Medad is a big improver from the good draw. I will throw in Esti Feny, he’s a huge improver on a dry track.

Thomas: Global Ausbred does look one of the better bets on the day. He was very good chasing boom galloper Waterford at Rosehill last start and should be peaking third-up from a spell. Yiyi was freshened up and ran a better race behind Diamil at Randwick and might be working his way back to top form. Pink Ivory tried hard when second to Pale King and the form out of that race has been franked. Pink Ivory does look well-weighted and should be competitive. Couldn’t Refuse is a good each-way chance.

RACE 7: SPRING STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: I like Token Capitalist. I feel he over-achieved when way up in grade last start. There isn’t much speed here and he should get total control so I can see him giving plenty of cheek here. Saveadateforme needs luck from the draw but he is a progressive type on the rise. Robusto is fourth-up off a win and gives the impression he should run a mile. I will throw in Kazalark. He is a bit raw but is a nice staying talent.

Thomas: Saveadateforme has looked a rising talent romping home to successive wins at Kembla Grange and Goulburn. He has to make the jump into stakes grade but that’s the case for most of his rivals. Saveadateforme has impressive acceleration and has won his last two starts by margins. Kazalark is similarly lightly raced but there was a lot to like about the way he dominated his rivals at Hawkesbury. Robusto and Basquiat have the more exposed form and look well placed here.

Vilana (left) was brilliant winning the Silver Eagle and will go close in The Hunter. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 8: THE HUNTER (1300m)

Dufficy: This is a hard race to dissect. I’ve ended up landing on the favourites but there are some good longshots. I’m a Vilana fan. He was brilliant winning the Silver Eagle then drew the terrible gate in the Golden Eagle. I think he can bounce back here. In The Congo is the danger. He is back to 1300m, it looks ideal riding the speed from the inside draw getting every opportunity. Apache Chase is a class horse who will definitely appreciate the extra 100m. Bandersnatch isn’t a bad longshot. He didn’t run out the mile last start but his previous form was sound and he has a good knockout chance.

Thomas: I’ve gone the other way with In The Congo on top. He led for a long way in the Golden Eagle but just faded near the line. He comes back to 1300m and importantly he has drawn perfectly in gate two. He will either lead or settle on the speed and control the race. Vilana will be giving In The Congo a start from the turn but he’s got a tremendous finishing surge and will be hard to hold out. Bandersnatch drew off the track in the Big Dance but is better suited over 1300m and also gets the right run from his good draw. Apache Chase is well placed here and will be in the finish.

RACE 9: BENCHMARK 88 HCP (1300m)

Dufficy: It’s hard to go past Waihaha Falls. He’s got a big weight but he’s headed for better things and should be hard to hold out. I thought his danger was his stablemate Cotehele. I know he had favours winning last start but he did win in good style. Jojo Was A Man has good fresh form and he wasn’t let go in two recent trials. There is a real bolter here with Super Strike. He hasn’t raced in a long time but he has a good looking record and his trials have been eye-catching.

Thomas: Waihaha Falls is an emergency for The Hunter but if he runs in this race, he’s clearly the one to beat. He ran a blinder first-up when fourth in the Sydney Stakes but with even luck he should have won. Waihaha Falls has his share of weight but he’s a very talented sprinter and only needs to avoid equine traffic to go close. Cotehele won well at Rosehill and there is a lot to like about his chances here. Coal Crusher is getting back to top form and I also have Jojo Was A Man does sprint well fresh.

Waihaha Falls is the one to beat in race 9 despite his big weight. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 10: JACK NEWTON LEGEND MILE (1600m)

Dufficy: On suspicion I’m tipping the import Adjourn. He has started favourite at his last five starts so that tells you he has ability. With James McDonald riding at his first start in Australia, I’m prepared to go with him. The danger is Notions. She looks to get control up front and will be hard to run down. One Aye has had some hard recent racing but is flying this spring. Kermanding is a much better horse than his last run suggests and I have to give him another chance.

Thomas: Sindacato has had a few chances but I like the set-up here. He’s peaking after three runs from a spell including his last start second to Redwood Shadow at Warwick Farm. Sindacato drops 4kg, meets that horse better at the weights, and will appreciate the Newcastle 1600m course. Notions was first-up at 1500m when third to Waterford in a strong form race at Rosehill and she rates highly here. Adjourn is definitely one to watch, Kermanding can improve and Redwood Shadow stays under notice.

SATURDAY EXTRA

Shayne O’Cass’s top picks

KEMBLA GRANGE

BEST BET

Race 6, No.5: BADEN ROAD

Handy mare with a good strike. She is a noted fresh performer, was runner-up at her only run here and her trials have been spot on.

NEXT BEST

Race 8, No.5: DOLPHINA

Dark Jewel descendant who is looking at a hat-trick at wins. Hasn’t won by big margins but has been dominant just the same.

VALUE BET

Race 7, No.6: THOUSAND YEARS

Dundeel mare who has raced six times for two wins, two seconds and a third. Wasn’t at all bad in town first-up.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 2,3

Race 6: 1,3,5

Race 7: 1,6,7,13

Race 8: 5,8

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Keagan Latham, the 2021/22 Champion Provincial Jockey, has ridden more winners at Kembla than anywhere else.

GUNDAGAI

BEST BET

Race 1, No.7: FIFO FILLY

Your Song three-year-old from the Pat Murphy camp. Led and was run down late on debut by Atmospheric Rock who could be Highway/city class herself.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.1: I’LL TELL YOU NOW

Making the trip from Gosford on Saturday, this former Queenslander has been good in all three runs in NSW for Adam Duggan.

BATHURST

BEST BET

Race 3, No.2: CHEAP SHOT

Happy Birthday. This horse was foaled on November 12 in 2018 and gifted the punters an easy win on debut at Dubbo back on June 26. Has talent.

NEXT BEST

Race 1, No.7: DEE PEE PEE

Smartly named daughter of Star Witness who finally has a draw that should see her shed her maiden status.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis for The Hunter Day at Newcastle