Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances for the George Main Stakes meeting at Randwick to help you find some winners.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate each of the 10 races on an outstanding George Main Stakes program at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
R9 No.9: BENAUD
VALUE BET
R2 No.15: HERB
R1: TAB Highway (1000m)
RON DUFFICY: I’m going with Custo. They have found James McDonald on the limit weight (he will ride 1kg over) and has been impressive winning two of his three starts in pretty slick time. The good draw will help him race on speed and prove hard to beat. Shalstar has won a trial leading into this race, she’s a nice mare with a good record and is a benchmark midweek city winner which is usually good credentials for a race like this. Proverbial trialled nicely under a hold and looks a genuine mare. I’m expecting a good showing at odds. Prince Nicconi was excellent last start when he went head to head with Opal Ridge. He just has to bring it back to 1000m.
RAY THOMAS: Prince Nicconi produced a career best to stretch the talented Opal Ridge last start. I concede coming back to 1000m is not ideal but he has the gate speed to take advantage of his inside draw. He’s very fit and will be hard to beat. Shalstar is a promising mare and she’s not badly in at the weights after the claim. Limited Reality is unbeaten and rates highly. Salire has been improved by recent racing and is a value runner.
R2: Midway Handicap (1600m)
DUFFICY: I like a longshot here called Herb. He’s only lightly raced but captured my attention charging to the line last start and looking like a real miler. Mahagoni has the form around Waterford which looks really strong for a Midway. Zou De Moon is a tough, on-pace mare in great form and all she wants is a drying track. Diamond Diesel didn’t have a lot of luck as favourite last start and deserves another chance.
THOMAS: Mahagoni made the very promising Waterford work for the win at Rosehill last start. He should be peaking after two runs from a spell, the step up in trip suits and James McDonald rides. Mahagoni has a lot going for him. Buba is a genuine mare who enjoys rain-affected tracks. She will need luck from her wide draw. Navajo Peak is racing well but has drawn right off the track. Zou De Moon is in top form and although creeping up in the weights, she will be in this for a long way.
R3: Shoot Out Mile (1600m)
DUFFICY: Impossible race, anything goes. I’m going for the stayer Caboche. He might be looking for further but he was excellent first-up, he’s had a beautiful tick-over trial since and I think he will be in the finish. Grace And Harmony should be forgiven for her second-up defeat as a short-priced favourite last start. Kiss The Bride was a big improvement second-up, maps well here and only has to hold that form. Bazooka is racing well and is right down in the weights.
THOMAS: Grace And Harmony was disappointing last start but she is a smart mare and definitely worth another chance. In an open race, she’s the one to beat. Bazooka is right down in the weights and can make his presence felt. Giannis should be peaking after two runs from a spell and Kiss The Bride goes back to Randwick after scoring a strong last start win on the track.
R4: The Agency Real Estate Hcp (1400m)
DUFFICY: Arnold is short in betting and stays at 1400m but he looks a talent who could charge right through his classes. War Eternal is a good longshot. He did enough first-up on the worst part of the track and could surprise at odds. Finepoint has a progressive record and after a couple of trials she should be ready to go. If Sindacato runs up to his good trial he can run well.
THOMAS: I’m also a fan of Arnold. He’s lightly-raced but obviously loaded with talent as he demonstrated winning impressively at the Kensington midweeks last start. This is a step up in grade but he’s good enough to keep winning. Silent Impact can improve here after an even first-up effort. Ita ran well first-up, is drawn to get a nice run and is in right in this race. War Eternal can improve.
R5: Bill Ritchie Hcp (1400m)
DUFFICY: Intriguing race. This Top Ranked is a very good horse. His two runs in Australia have been very competitive beaten less than two lengths behind Lost And Running and Verry Elleegant. That has to be good form for a race like this. Cross Talk is his danger. He hasn’t done too much wrong, he has trialled since his last run and I like him back to 1400m. O’President has been enormous at the trials. His race form is fair but I’m sure he is likeable off those brilliant trials. Lackeen is fit, up and running and this is a nice style of race for him.
THOMAS: Cross Talk will be in the controlling position here, either leading or sitting off O’President and is the one to beat. Cross Talk is racing in top form, he’s very fit and likes rain-affected tracks. If O’President brings his trial form to the races, he’s going to be exciting to watch. I’m also very wary of the classy Top Ranked and Purple Sector should run well.
R6: Tea Rose Stakes (1400m)
DUFFICY: I’m going with Zougotcha. She was dominant winning the Silver Shadow, that form has been franked and she has had a trial since. She only needs to run out a strong 1400m to be the one to beat. North Star Lass is an underrated filly who looks like she needs 1400m. She maps well and ticks every box. Willinga Beast is improving all the time and was only narrowly beaten last start. Paris Dior is a big improver on a drier track.
THOMAS: Zougotcha was very good in the Silver Shadow Stakes and didn’t have to slog through those very heavy conditions in the Furious Stakes so she comes here on fresh legs. As you pointed out Ronnie, she defeated In Secret last start and that filly has since come out and won the Run To The Rose easily. North Star Lass showed great determination to win the Furious and she is improving with racing. Paris Dior is a very talented filly and is better suited on the drying track. Willinga Beast is another emerging filly who will be competitive.
R7: George Main Stakes (1600m)
DUFFICY: I wish Anamoe had drawn a better barrier as he has some map problems but he’s a class act and is the one to beat. Hinged is the one that might be more wound up of the Waller mares. They have been aggressive putting the blinkers on and I like her from barrier one. Fangirl just might be a run away but is a class mare. Profondo is a big improver on a drying track.
THOMAS: Anamoe defied the track bias to win the Winx Stakes when resuming last month. He’s been given plenty of time to get over that run and had a nice trial hit-out last Friday. He will play the stalking role and always attacks the line strongly. The Chris Waller-trained mares Fangirl and Hinged have drawn well and will be competitive. Converge did beat Anamoe in the Randwick Guineas earlier this year and the improving track surface suits him.
R8: The Shorts (1100m)
DUFFICY: What a terrific race. Nature Strip looked a fit, happy and healthy horse last week and it’s only 95 days since he conquered all at Royal Ascot. I would have preferred a wider draw so he can get into a rhythm but I will lean his way. The little giant-killer Eduardo has the run under his belt and with race fitness will be hard to beat. Mazu is the new kid on the bloke and is ready for the big league now. Lost And Running should finish in the top four or five, his trials have been good and he looks a more switched on horse this campaign.
THOMAS: I was also taken by Nature Strip’s appearance when he galloped between races at Rosehill last week. He looked very forward in condition and is ready to go. I’ve also got a slight concern with his inside gate as he can miss the start slightly. Eduardo was outstanding in the Concorde Stakes and he has beaten Nature Strip on his merits previously. Mazu will get the right run just behind the speed and he has a fierce will-to-win. Classique Legend will need the run but he is too good not to be included among the main chances.
R9: Kingston Town Stakes (2000m)
DUFFICY: I think Benaud is the bet of the day. He produced the run of the day last start against the bias so now he has put two good runs together at weight-for-age. These conditions suit him better at the weights, he’s fitter and ideal at 2000m. Surefire has to be forgiven for his last start defeat because the track wasn’t playing his way. No Compromise is a very genuine stayer, he’s been toughened up by a couple of runs back and will be around the mark again. Aleas was good first-up and is a knockout chance at good odds.
THOMAS: I’m with Surefire. He was dynamic first-up at Rosehill then was back in the field on a day when you couldn’t make ground when unplaced in the Chelmsford. Promising stayer and getting out to 2000m will suit. Benaud is the danger for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. Knights Order revelled in the heavy conditions to win the Chelmsford and can only be fitter. Stockman should be hitting the line hard.
R10: Moraitis Trophy (1200m)
DUFFICY: I’m hoping for a track in the soft range for I Am Lethal. He’s been gelded before this preparation, the stable has always had a big opinion of him and his trials have been good. He’s got no weight on his back and is at good odds. Similar with Starman, I quite like this horse. His two trials have been great and he profiles well. Brigantine is resuming from injury but should be ready to go here. Maotai is the fit horse and is right in the mix.
THOMAS: A tough closer. I’ve gone wide with Dajraan. He’s a promising type trialling well and is over the odds. Maotai is racing in very good form and has a race fitness edge. The Kris Lees-trained duo Never Talk and Kinloch are resuming but both usually sprint well fresh and the soft track conditions are in their favour.
Originally published as Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
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